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MINNESOTA TWINS (Kyle Gibson – R) @ BALTIMORE ORIOLES (Ubaldo Jimenez – R)
Gibson: 0-4, 8.20 ERA/1.97 WHIP – Those numbers are no aberration, Gibson really is THAT bad. In fact, in his 6 starts he’s only managed to pitch a total of 26.1 innings. If you’re not averaging 5 innings per start, you’re either a usual bullpen guy or a shitbag- Gibson is the latter of the two.
I have no idea what got into Mark Trumbo lately, but baseball works in mysterious ways. After not being able to find the desert after falling off his camel, Trumbo has gone 13-for-28 with 2 doubles and 2 HR over the last six games. Wellington Castillo has come off the DL on fire, going for 10-for-22 with 3 HR and 10 RBI over the last five games. Chris Davis, JJ Hardy and Jonathan Schoop all have at least 10 plate appearances against Gibson and it’s gone well for them.
Jimenez: 1-2, 6.52 ERA/1.60 WHIP – Same ole story with him, just not someone that I trust to have a remotely good outing. However, these Twins bats (entering Sunday) weren’t anything special to talk about. Jimenez could possibly be a decent SP2 and he does have a 26.6% K-rate against current members of the Twins.
As I just mentioned, the Twins’ numbers against Jimenez aren’t the greatest but we know how he rolls and Camden Yards is a profitable hitter’s setting. Miguel Sano, Max Kepler and Robbie Grossman are all in play. Brian Dozier is 7-for-22 with 2 doubles against Jimenez, but he has struck out 8 times.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS (Jason Vargas – L) @ NEW YORK YANKEES (Michael Pineda – R)
***20-40% chance of light rain, delay/PPD unlikely***
Vargas: 5-2, 2.03 ERA/1.03 WHIP – Has been a pleasant surprise so far, but his last outing (against the Yankees) was his worst as he allowed 7 hits and 6 ER in 4 innings. The troubling sign for Vargas is his fly ball-ground ball ratio (2.4-to-1) over the last five starts and that is not going to play well in Yankee Stadium if that holds up.
Fly balls in Yankee Stadium are music to the ears of the home team. Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez are right at the top of the Yankees wish list tonight- both guys have enough power to hit It out of Yosemite Park, so why not in this place? Matt Holliday isn’t in the best form lately with 12 Ks in his last 25 plate appearances, but home cooking could be a good thing for him. Aaron Hicks (4-for-11, double, HR) and Starlin Castro (3-for-6, 3 doubles) both have good numbers against Vargas- Castro is one of the hotter hitters on the Yanks over the last six games as well.
Pineda: 4-2, 3.42 ERA/1.04 WHIP – Hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in a start since his first one this season. It’s really the long ball that’s a constant thing with Pineda, as he’s allowed at least one of them in all but one start. I’m confident that Pineda will be able to do his thing against the worst offense in the league, but the Yankee Stadium setting takes him down a notch or two from the top.
RHB have hit 7 of the 10 HR allowed by Pineda this season, and that means Salvador Perez could be our guy here. He homered 3 times in yesterday’s doubleheader and also has a great BvP history (9-for-23 with a double and 2 HR) against Pineda. Mike Moustakas also has good BvP history against Pineda, going 7-for-15 with 2 doubles, a triple, 2 HR.
COLORADO ROCKIES (Jeff Hoffman – R) @ PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (Jerad Eickhoff – R)
***35-45% chance of light rain, delay/PPD unlikely***
Hoffman: 10 career appearances (7 starts): 1-4, 4.97 ERA/1.66 WHIP – My esteemed colleague, Keith Hall, probably has a better idea about Hoffman than most but he did have 8 Ks against the Dodgers lefty-laden lineup.
Phils bats were quiet, for the most part, in Pittsburgh this weekend but it’ll be good for them to be home for the first time in 12 days. Cesar Hernandez has clearly been the best Phils player at Citizens Bank Park this season, batting .349 (.478 OBP) and scoring 16 runs in 16 games. Aaron Altherr cooled off a bit on that Phils recent road trip- he’s likely itching to get back to CBP, where he has a 1.435 OPS with 6 HR and 14 RBI in 13 games.
Eickhoff: 0-4, 4.53 ERA/1.42 WHIP – The numbers look a lot worse than Eickhoff really is- a string of bad starts against the Dodgers, Cubs and Mariners has brought us to this point. He did have a season-high 8 Ks against the Rangers on the road last time out and the Rockies own the seventh-highest K-rate (22.4%) against RHP.
The Rockies numbers benefitted greatly from playing in Great American Ballpark over the weekend, but they still exist. Alexi Amarista is their hottest hitter right now, going 6-for-15 with 3 doubles, HR and 6 RBI over the last four games. DJ LeMahieu went bonkers over the weekend, going 7-for-13 with 3 doubles, HR and 5 RBI. Eickhoff has struggled against LHB, so give Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez and the aforementioned Amarista.
CLEVELAND INDIANS (Josh Tomlin – R) @ CINCINNATI REDS (Scott Feldman – R)
Tomlin: 2-5, 6.86 ERA/1.43 WHIP – Just when we thought Tomlin was coming back around with back-to-back solid outings, he gets blown up by the Rays for 6 ER in 2.1 innings. Great American Ballpark is possibly the worst venue for pitchers, so tonight is not the night to see if you can be a hero with Tomlin.
Tomlin is getting ripped from both sides of the plate (RHB: .349 avg, .962 OPS / LHB: .294 avg, .715 OPS) this season, so pretty much everyone is in play. Zack Cozart has crushed Tomlin over the course of his career, going 7-for-11 with 2 doubles and a triple against him. Joey Votto is 3-for-11 against him with a double and 2 HR.
Feldman: 2-4, 4.29 ERA/1.31 WHIP – He’s had some successes this season, but just like any other pitcher in the league, he’s had some bumps in the road. His last start (at Wrigley Field against the Cubs) was his shortest of the season, as he only made it 2.2 innings and gave up 5 ER.
Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley and Yan Gomes have all been running hot over the last few games for the Tribe. Lonnie Chisenhall has shown the most power with 4 HR in the last seven games.
LOS ANGELES ANGELS (JC Ramirez – R) @ TAMPA BAY RAYS (Jake Odorizzi – R)
Ramirez: 3-3, 3.97 ERA/1.17 WHIP – He’s on the verge of becoming a reliable value option, but we need to see more consistency with the strikeouts. Ramirez has only Ks in his last 20 innings, and that’s after posting 9, 7 and 9 Ks in his previous three starts before that. He’s still pitching well overall, but in fantasy baseball, we need those Ks damnit!
Corey Dickerson has been the best Rays hitter, by far, going 10-for-26 with 5 HR and 9 RBI over the last six games. Ramirez is a decent pitching option and the Rays bats are a bit scattered with their production at the moment- because of that, Dickerson is best used as a one-off option.
Odorizzi: 3-2, 3.16 ERA/0.89 WHIP – It’s been a common theme to pick on these Angels, not necessarily for strikeouts but just for solid points from a cheaper pitcher. This current Angels lineup has solid numbers against Odorizzi so this probably isn’t the greatest spot to use him.
RHB have typically done better against Odorizzi, but it’s the LHB having slightly more success this season. I expect the RHB to come back around to normalize so this could be a good spot for Mike Trout (who is 4-for-6 with a double vs Odorizzi) to have a big night under the radar. It’s rare that we use the term “under the radar” with Trout, but he’s not exactly in the best hitter’s park and it doesn’t seem like he’ll be incredibly popular tonight- that’s the best time to use him.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES (Gerrit Cole – R) @ ATLANTA BRAVES (Mike Foltynewicz – R)
***20-50% chance of light rain, delay/PPD unlikely***
Cole: 2-4, 2.84 ERA/1.02 WHIP – He’s gone at least 6 innings in the last seven starts and allowed 2 ER or fewer in all of those starts over that span. The strikeouts have dipped off a bit over these last two starts and it doesn’t seem like the Braves are going to help Cole in that regard- they rank 17th against RHP. A quality start and a win, though, certainly aren’t out of the question.
Cole is terrible at holding runners on base, so Ender Inciarte could be an interesting play here with the stolen base upside. Brandon Phillips has good BvP numbers against Cole, going 9-for-22 (all singles).
Foltynewicz: 2-4, 4.10 ERA/1.32 WHIP – Other than one start against the Cardinals, Folty has been quite serviceable this season. The strikeouts aren’t coming at a rapid pace and the Pirates own the second-lowest K-rate (18.2%) in the majors, but Folty is still capable of pitching well against them- after all, he’s done it against pretty much everyone he’s faced this season.
I feel like a parrot when I talk about the Pirates, but Adam Frazier and Josh Bell are your best two options. Frazier is a guy I’ve been talking about all season, and both sites have finally taken notice ($3700 DK/$3300 FD) to the point where he’s not free anymore. The man has 6 straight multi-hit games and the fantasy points are starting to follow suit. Bell cooled off a bit over the last 2 games, but this was a guy that hit 4 HR in the previous seven. Folty has long gotten bopped over the head by LHB, so this further elevates my interest in Frazier and Bell this evening.
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (Ty Blach – L) @ CHICAGO CUBS (John Lackey – R)
***50-60% chance of light rain, delay PPD/not likely – 12 MPH winds out to CF***
Blach: 1-2, 4.15 ERA/1.18 WHIP – 11 Ks in 34.2 innings, no…that’s not a misprint. That’s absolutely terrible, as a matter of fact. Blach has actually pitched well in his last two starts, but he has the benefit of pitching in AT&T Park. The last time Blach was in a hitter’s venue was two weeks ago in Cincy and he got blown the F up for 11 hits and 8 ER in 3 innings; Wrigley Field could have a similar feel to it with the winds blowing out 15 MPH to center field.
Anyone and everyone is/are in play for the Cubs tonight, due to the unkind words I had for Blach. Kris Bryant could certainly be the top overall play of the night and he’s had 3 HR over the last three games, including 2 of them yesterday against the Brewers. Ben Zobrist and Albert Almora Jr are batting 1-2 in the Cubs lineup ahead of Bryant, and they’ll likely be popular options as well. Willson Contreras (6-for-15 with 2 doubles and 7 RBI over the last four games) and Javy Baez are among two of my favorite players at their position today ($/PT outlook is en fuego) and Addison Russell is up there, but I feel like he’ll be way too heavily owned for a guy that is 2-for-16 over the last few games. Kyle Schwarber and Ian Happ will be the ones resting for the Cubs tonight.
Lackey: 4-3, 4.37 ERA/1.35 WHIP – The encouraging thing is that Lackey hasn’t had that big blowup outing yet this season, and he’s had 2 dominant starts- both of which came on the road, and that’s odd since he’s been a good home pitcher historically. The Giants strikeout rate against RHP (20%) is down in the bottom-third of the league, but it’s not like they’re producing big offensive numbers either. I’m aware of the detrimental conditions for both pitchers tonight, but Lackey has a great chance to get the win and I wouldn’t be totally surprised if he walks off the mound with a quality start either.
Eduardo Nunez has been the hottest Giants hitter, going 9-for-24 with 2 doubles, 2 HR and 7 RBI over the last six games, and he is also 5-for-15 with 4 doubles against Lackey over the course of his career. Brandon Crawford posted some nice fantasy point totals last week and he’s cheap on both sites ($3300 DK/$2900 FD). Buster Posey has the second-highest batting average (.362) in the majors this season. Joe Panik is batting leadoff at a very cheap price as well.
DETROIT TIGERS (Michael Fulmer – R) @ HOUSTON ASTROS (Brad Peacock – R)
Fulmer: 5-1, 2.72 ERA/1.06 WHIP – He’s been one of the more consistent pitchers since coming up to the majors, but I am somewhat concerned that he’s allowed at least 8 hits in two of his last three starts. The Astros have the third-lowest strikeout rate (19.1%) against RHP, but we have seen the Astros have some whiff-happy games and they were among the teams with one of the highest rates last season.
Fulmer has severe reverse splits, allowing a .289 avg to RHB this season- let’s begin our discussion there. Jose Altuve has 10 hits (2 doubles, 2 triples, 2 HR, 6 RBI) over the last 6 games, all of which are the most of any Astros in that span. A lot of these other Astros are slumping, so I’m going to take a pass with plenty of advantageous options elsewhere.
Peacock: 2-0, 1.10 ERA/1.04 WHIP (this season: 12 appearances, 0 starts) – I have no idea how the Astros are planning to use colorfully-feathered bird tonight, but 5 innings is probably the absolute max. The Astros do have one of the best bullpens in the league, so that does limit exposure from both ends here.
Los Tigres played the Sunday Night ESPN game yesterday and I’ve been paying attention to how that affected teams the next day. The result: no effect, if anything, they might even be better. This Tigers lineup is very dangerous at the moment but I’m not going to stack them or anything like that. One-off guys like Miguel Cabrera, JD Martinez and Alex Avila are all fine options.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX (Miguel Gonzalez – R) @ ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (Zack Greinke – R)
Gonzalez: 3-4, 4.29 ERA/1.47 WHIP – He’s allowed 5 ER in 3 of his last 4 starts and things certainly won’t get any easier for him tonight. The Diamondbacks are hitting the ball as well as anyone in the league right now and will likely add to Gonzalez’s hurt.
Jake Lamb is crushing it lately, going 7-for-17 with a double, 4 HR and 10 RBI over the last five games. Paul Goldschmidt hasn’t homered in the last six games, but he’s still getting on base with the best of them. David Peralta has 7 hits (1 HR, 6 singles) in his last 14 plate appearances. Those are the big names that will likely be popular, but I also like Chris Owings, Gregor Blanco and Chris Herrmann (if he’s in the lineup).
Greinke: 5-2, 3.09 ERA/1.03 WHIP – The strikeouts have been legit, at 7 Ks in each of his last five starts, and he is seemingly the top pitching option on tonight’s slate. However, even though the White Sox faced weak Mariners pitching over the weekend, it’s tough to denounce how many runs they have put up lately. Even with that power surge, the White Sox still own the seventh-highest K-rate (22.4%) and fourth-lowest wOBA (.297) against RHP.
Tim Anderson (3 HR), Avisail Garcia, Jose Abreu (3 HR) and Yolmer Sanchez all have at least 10 hits over the last week. I’m not particularly interested in too many of these White Sox against Greinke, but I do like Todd Frazier for low-owned HR upside.
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