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Boston Red Sox (Drew Pomeranz- L) @ Baltimore Orioles (Dylan Bundy- R)
POMERANZ:
+ 16 Ks in 10 1/3 innings so far this season, including 10 in six innings against this same Orioles team 10 days ago. Hmm, can 10 be the magic number once again? It sure as hell can, because the Orioles have the fourth-highest strikeout rate against LHPs this season.
+ Current members of the Orioles that have faced Pomeranz struck out 33.3% of the time.
RED SOX OFFENSE:
+ Mitch Moreland: leads MLB with 11 doubles- that on the strength of a 16.3% barreled ball rate. The league leader last season was Khris Davis at 18.4% .
+ Andrew Benintendi has the highest DFSA grade of any Red Sox player in
* Notable BvP against Bundy:
+ Dustin Pedroia: 5-for-13 (2B)
+ Mookie Betts: 5-for-12 (2 HR, 3 BB)
***8 HR at Camden Yards last season***
+ Jackie Bradley Jr: 3-for-8 (HR)
***Makes his return from the DL today***
+ Brock Holt: 3-for-6 (2B)
+ Sandy Leon: 2-for-5 (HR)
– Xander Bogaerts: 4-for-15, HR, 4 Ks
– Hanley Ramirez: 2-for-11
BUNDY:
+ Birdland should be very excited about Bundy, not Al…but Dylan. He’s got three quality starts in three tries and great peripherals to go along with it: 19 1/3 IP, 16 H/3 BB, 17 Ks – (2-1, 1.86 ERA, 0.98 WHIP).
– The Red Sox have Bundy’s number: 1-3, 6.86 ERA in four career starts. He did have a quality start against them 10 days ago but did give up 7 H/2 BB.
ORIOLES OFFENSE:
+ Trey Mancini is always a great idea vs LHPs, and he’s got the highest DFSA grade of any player in the Orioles projected starting lineup.
+ Wellington Castillo and JJ Hardy have gone yard off Pomeranz before.
Atlanta Braves (Bartolo Colon- R) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Jeremy Hellickson- R)
COLON:
+ As long as he’s not going up against the Marlins, Colon has been great so far in a Braves uniform…
+ Colon has handled the Phils well over the last couple seasons, and no one on their current roster with at least 10 at-bats has an average over .273 – Freddy Galvis is the only one to homer against him.
+ From 2014-16, Colon was 10-3 with a 3.01 ERA in 14 starts against the Phils and 6-1 with a 2.72 ERA at in 8 starts at Citizens Bank Park over that same span.
BRAVES OFFENSE:
* Notable BvP against Hellickson:
+ Matt Kemp: 7-for-19 (2B, 3B, HR, 6 Ks)
– Nick Markakis: 10-for-50 (2B, 2 HR, 4 Ks)
HELLICKSON:
+ Off to an incredible start this season, and it’s even more impressive that he’s done it against the Reds at Great American Ballpark and then twice against the Nationals: 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. He’s only allowed 11 H/3 BB, 3 ER/1 HR in 17 innings.
+ “On a curveball, higher spin rate is what you want, and Hellickson has had one of the highest spin rates in baseball this year. Hellickson’s average curveball spin rate is 2,962 rpm in 2017, third highest in the Majors behind the Rays’ Austin Pruitt (3,016 rpm) and the A’s Jesse Hahn (2,965 rpm).” –via MLB.com
– Only has 5 Ks in those 17 innings
– It’s a bit unnerving that he’s had 36 fly ball outs to 20 ground ball outs. Sooner or later those fly balls are going to start flying out of the ballpark.
PHILLIES OFFENSE:
– Their history against Colon certainly isn’t great, but I want to believe there’s some ray of hope within this lineup.
New York Yankees (CC Sabathia- L) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Tyler Glasnow- R)
***SIDE NOTE: The Pirates have been swept or been swept in each series this season. Additionally, they are 6-0 in games played from Friday-Sunday and 0-9 in games played from Monday-Thursday.
SABATHIA:
+ CC has been nothing short of amazing, considering the tools that he has to work with at this point in his career: 2-0 with a 1.47 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and two quality starts in three tries- the one did he not get the QS was because he was one inning shy of qualifying.
YANKEES OFFENSE:
+ Some of the hottest sticks in MLB at the moment:
***Chase Headley does nothing but get on base (.500 OBP, tops in MLB)***
***Aaron Judge has 20+ FDP in three of his last four games- I’m sure the numbers are just as fantastic on the site that you play on***
***Starlin Castro is 9-for-21 in his last six games with 2 HR and 6 RBI
GLASNOW:
– Not sure we can trust him yet, but he did show strikeout upside in his last start @ the Cubs. Unfortunately, the Yankees don’t offer much in that department and Glasnow has allowed multiple runs in four of his seven innings.
PIRATES OFFENSE:
+ The one option I would consider is the only person on this Pirates roster to ever face CC, David Freese. He’s been mashing LHP for quite some time now and that’s the one logical choice.
+ Francisco Cervelli knows CC well, maybe there’s some kinda knowledge he can pass along to this bunch of misfits. IIIIIII dunno.
– This is a bad combination for the Pirates who are already struggling at the plate. CC allows a ton of soft contact and this is one of the worst hitting parks in the majors. On a 15-game slate, there are plenty of better options…except Freese, of course.
Washington Nationals (Tanner Roark- R) @ New York Mets (Matt Harvey- R)
ROARK:
+ Two quality starts in three tries and he’s had the Mets number over the last 13 appearances (eight starts) with a 5-2 record and 2.40 ERA.
+ The Mets will be missing some of their usual starters for part/most of the weekend, but definitely tonight- Yoenis Cespedes, Lucas Duda, Travis d’Arnaud and Wilmer Flores are all out.
NATIONALS OFFENSE:
+ Daniel Murphy and Jayson Werth both missed yesterday’s game but they should return tonight.
* Notable BvP numbers against Harvey:
+ Daniel Murphy: 3-for-6 (2 HR)
— Bryce Harper: 1-for-26 (3 BB, 7 Ks)
HARVEY:
+ He’s a third of an out away from having three straight quality start. Harvey’s velocity is up, but this is not an easy matchup at all. The one thing I can say, though, is that he should be able to limit the long ball since it’s so cold here in New Yawwwk.
METS OFFENSE:
+ Roark has surprisingly had more trouble with RHBs over the course of his career and it’s continued this season. With Cespedes, d’Arnaud and Flores all out that doesn’t leave the Mets with too many options from that side of the plate.
* Notable BvP numbers against Roark:
+ Rene Rivera: 4-for-13 (2B, 6 Ks)
– Curtis Granderson: 7-for-25 (4 2B, 5 Ks)
– Juan Lagares: 2-for-11
– Jay Bruce: 1-for-11 (3 Ks)
– Asdrubal Cabrera: 2-for-8 (2B)
Chicago Cubs (Jon Lester- L) @ Cincinnati Reds (Tim Adelman- R)
LESTER:
+ Today is the one-year anniversary of Jake Arrieta throwing a no-hitter…in Cincy
+ 3-1, 3.32 ERA in 9 career starts against the Reds
– One of the worst pitchers at holding runners on base and the Reds have plenty of guys that can basically moonwalk along the basepaths.
CUBS OFFENSE:
+ Addison Russell leads the Cubs in exit velocity
+ Last in NL in HRs, look for that to change as Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant each had 6 at Great American Ballpark last season
ADELMAN:
– You poor bastard
REDS OFFENSE:
+ Billy Hamilton owns Lester and I would love Jose Peraza as to combo him with. Remember, they owe us from that day they failed massively against Ubaldo Jimenez.
Houston Astros (Mike Fiers- R) @ Tampa Bay Rays (Alex Cobb- R)
FIERS:
+ Does have the strikeout upside against this Rays team, but they are hot right now
– 0-1, .5.40 ERA and 1.50 WHIP to start the season- really not a fan
ASTROS OFFENSE:
+ George Springer, Jose Altuve and Josh Reddick are the only three guys I would be on at this point.
COBB:
+ Astros bats have struggled since their hot start. If Cobb can stay away from the George Springer long ball, he should be fine.
— Allowed 11 hits and had zero strikeouts in a tough matchup against the Red Sox last time out.
RAYS OFFENSE:
+ Lots of bats here are a great idea, especially the RHBs, who have hit for more power against Fiers from 2014-16; Evan Longoria has homered off him before. Don’t forget about the LHBs though, because they are ones swinging the hot sticks for the Rays lately. Corey Dickerson (2-for-5, 2 2B) and Logan Morrison (5-for-10, all singles) have short-term success against Fiers.
+ Steven Souza Jr (11-for-27, 2 HR, 9 RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (10-for-27, 2 2B, HR, 3 RBI and Brad Miller (9-for-24, 2 2B, 2 3B, HR, 5 RBI) are scorching hot right now are have a combined .460 OBP between the three of them.
Kansas City Royals (Nathan Karns- R) @ Texas Rangers (Cole Hamels- L)
KARNS:
+ Only 2 ER allowed 12 1/3 innings this season. We’re not getting many strikeouts from Karns, but he does face an offense that is struggling mightily right now.
ROYALS OFFENSE:
+ Absolutely no interest whatsoever.
HAMELS:
+ One of my favorite pitchers on the entire slate, it’s time for Cole! He’s long been one of the best pitchers in MLB for a while and he takes on one of the worst offenses in baseball.
+ Current Royals have a collective .219 avg against Hamels, and they are striking out at 28% rate.
RANGERS OFFENSE:
– The Royals starting rotation is on fire right now, so don’t feel like you have to force these guys in on a 15-game slate. If you must, though, Carlos Gomez is affordable and Nomar Mazara is at least making contact, which is much more than you can say for the rest of this team.
Cleveland Indians (Corey Kluber- R) @ Chicago White Sox (Jose Quintana- L)
KLUBER:
+ 4-3, 3.13 ERA in last 10 starts vs the White Sox – ehhhh, kinda impressed
– Off to a very rocky start this season: 1-1, 6.38 ERA and 1.42 WHIP – 13 ER/5 HR in 18 1/3 innings
INDIANS OFFENSE:
* Notable BvP numbers against Quintana:
+ Michael Brantley: 13-for-27 (4 2B, HR, only 1 K)
+ Austin Jackson: 8-for-27 (3B, HR, 6 Ks)
+ Jose Ramirez: 9-for-24 (3 2B, only 3 Ks)
+ Brandon Guyer: 7-for-18 (2 2B, HR, only 2 Ks)
– Carlos Santana: 8-for-38 (2 2B, 3 BB, 6 Ks)
– Yan Gomes: 1-for-17 (9 Ks)
– Francisco Lindor: 3-for-16 (2B, 2 BB, only 2 Ks)
– Edwin Encarnacion: 4-for-16 (all singles, only 1 K)
QUINTANA:
– Another guy wishing he probably had a different profession at the moment. Quintana is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.62 WHIP.
WHITE SOX OFFENSE:
– They are struggling baaaad at the moment, but at least Avisail Garcia still leads MLB in batting average
* Notable BvP against Kluber:
+ Jose Abreu: 12-for-33 (2 2B, 3 HR, 9 Ks)
+ Melky Cabrera: 10-for-25 (4 2B, 3B, 5 Ks)
– Avisail Garcia: 6-for-20 (all singles, 4 Ks)
– Todd Frazier: 1-for-18 (8 Ks)
St. Louis Cardinals (Adam Wainwright- R) @ Milwaukee Brewers (Wily Peralta- R)
WAINWRIGHT:
– Can’t use Wainwright on the road, no thanks. He’s off to a terrible start this season anyways with an 0-3 record and a 7.24 ERA/2.20 WHIP. 21 hits and 9 ER allowed in the last two starts, whoa!
CARDINALS OFFENSE:
* Notable BvP against Peralta:
+ Matt Carpenter: 19-for-41 (5 2B, 3 HR, 4 BB, 5 Ks)
+ Jedd Gyorko: 4-for-10 (HR)
— Kolten Wong: 5-for-27 (3B, 7 Ks)
PERALTA:
– Terrible history against the Cardinals. There’s no need to go here on a 15-game slate.
BREWERS OFFENSE:
+ Travis Shaw and Eric Thames are on top of the world right now. Wainwright has struggled against LHBs for a while now and he’s been equally as bad on the road.
— Ryan Braun has seen plenty of Wainwright over the course of his career, but it hasn’t gone all that well. 17-for-80 with four doubles, two homers and 21 strikeouts.
Detroit Tigers (Justin Verlander- R) @ Minnesota Twins (Hector Santiago- L)
VERLANDER:
+ FAVORITE PITCHER OF THE NIGHT!!!!!!!!
+ I find it hard to believe he won’t come out on fire tonight, especially after having one of the worst starts of his career last time out. A guy like Verlander is incredibly competitive and there is just no way that he’ll come out and shit the bed tonight.
+ He’s done very well against the Twins over the last three seasons with a 3-1 record and 2.81 ERA in six starts- that includes 47 Ks, 1.08 WHIP, .209 opp avg in 41 2/3 innings. If Byron Buxton is in the lineup, that’s 2-3 free Ks right there.
TIGERS OFFENSE:
+ Miguel Cabrera: 6-for-25 (2B, 2 HR, 4 BB, 4 Ks)
+ James McCann: 4-for-14 (2B, 2 HR, 4 Ks)
+ Justin Upton: 3-for-12 (HR, 2 BB, 4 Ks)
— Ian Kinsler: 5-for-23 (2B, 3B, 5 BB, 3 Ks)
***Not great numbers vs Santiago, but I think he comes up big tonight***
— Victor Martinez: 5-for-25 (2 2B, 4 Ks)
— Nick Castellanos: 1-for-15 (HR, 6 Ks)
— Jose Iglesias: 3-for-15 (all singles, 3 BB, 2 Ks)
SANTIAGO:
+ Two straight quality starts, including a great outing against these same Tigers last time out. He went 6 1/3 innings, 3 H/1 BB, 2 ER(1 HR), 1 K- ok, the one strikeout isn’t great at all, but he did keep them down.
– From 2014-16, Santiago was 2-3 with a 4.24 ERA in seven starts against the Tigers
TWINS OFFENSE:
+ Joe Mauer: 25-for-75 (5 2B, 4 HR, 13 BB, 13 Ks)
***Too bad he sucks***
— Brian Dozier: 4-for-24 (2B, 4 BB, 8 Ks)
— Eduardo Escobar: 2-for-12 (4 Ks)
— Jason Castro: 0-for-12 (6 Ks)
— Danny Santana: 3-for-11 (3B)
— Miguel Sano: 1-for-9 (4 Ks)
San Francisco Giants (Johhny Cueto- R) @ Colorado Rockies (Tyler Chatwood- R)
CUETO:
+ 3-0 with a 3.79 ERA this season – just had a W vs the Rockies last week: 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks
+ 5-0, 1.33 ERA in 7 starts against the Rockies from 2014-16
+ Not a bad option to use as a sneaky GPP pitcher tonight. It’ll be brutally cold in Denver and the ball is not going to travel as far.
GIANTS OFFENSE:
* Notable BvP against Chatwood:
— Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt, Hunter Pence, Buster Posey and Denard Span have awful numbers
CHATWOOD:
+ Just tossed a complete-game shutout against these same Giants last week, and he’s got wonderful BvP numbers against them, even though he only has a 14.3% strikeout rate against current members of the team.
ROCKIES OFFENSE:
+ DJ LeMahieu (10-for-27, 2B, 7 Ks vs Cueto) had multi-hit games in all four meetings at San Francisco last week.
* Notable BvP against Cueto:
+ Gerardo Parra: 14-for-38 (4 2B, 2 HR, 6 Ks)
+ Charlie Blackmon: 9-for-30 (2 2B, 7 Ks)
— Nolan Arenado: 5-for-23 (2B, HR, 7 Ks)
— Mark Reynolds: 4-for-20 (HR, 5 Ks)
— Trevor Story: 3-for-12 (HR, 5 Ks)
Los Angeles Dodgers (Alex Wood- L) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (Taijuan Walker- R)
WOOD:
– Most likely will not last long in this game, so we should see more of the Dodgers bullpen.
DODGERS OFFENSE:
+ Dodgers bats should be popular tonight, but for good reason. This is one of the better hitting parks, Walker is not a great pitcher and the roof at Chase Field will be open for business tonight.
+ Justin Turner is 7-for-19 with three doubles over the last five games. Corey Seager and Yasmani Grandal are both great options for tonight, while Chase Utley is damn near the minimum on FanDuel.
WALKER:
+ He’s actually been a lot better against LHBs from 2014-16 and the trend has continued this season, and Lord knows the Dodgers have plenty of them. A lot of people will be stacking Dodgers tonight, so this could be a very interesting way to go for your SP2.
DIAMONDBACKS OFFENSE:
+ AJ Pollock has been the most consistent D-Backs hitter of late by going 9-for-25 over the last seven games. Chris Iannetta has five hits in his last 13 at-bats, with two of them being HRs, and he hits LHPs very well. Yasmany Tomas is also a great option on tonight’s slate.
— Paul Goldschmidt has struggled of late, but it seems as if he’s just not getting anything to hit. He’s gone 4-for-22 with seven strikeouts over the last seven games, but he’s also got eight walks.
Seattle Mariners (Hisashi Iwakuma- R) @ Oakland A’s (Sean Manaea- L)
IWAKUMA:
– Not even worth my time
MARINERS OFFENSE:
+ Nelson Cruz (.436 wOBA, .333 ISO, 185 wRC_) against LHPs is always a great idea and that why he’s got the highest DFSA grade of any Mariners player. Taylor Motter isn’t too far behind Cruz and he’s got four homers over the last eight games.
MANAEA:
+ Manaea has one of the highest DFSA grades of any pitcher on tonight’s slate, but take that with a grain of salt. Yes, the ballpark is outstanding for his skill-set but the Mariners do have some bats that could put him in trouble. He was 2-0 with 4.76 ERA against them last season.
A’S OFFENSE:
+ The A’s bats exploded last night and they’ll have an even better outlook tonight. Khris Davis and Trevor Plouffe both have 3 HR in their last six games.
+ Stephen Vogt and Matt Joyce both have decent numbers against Iwakuma, who has only six strikeouts in 15 innings this season.
Toronto Blue Jays (Mat Latos- R) @ Los Angeles Angels (Alex Meyer- R)
LATOS:
– Making his 2017 debut, unfortunately, for the Blue Jays. I don’t see him lasting too long or making much of an impact on this game. He is a terrible pitcher, but he’s also taking on a struggling Angels team.
BLUE JAYS OFFENSE:
+ Kevin Pillar is raking right now with 12 hits in his last 26 at-bats.
— Jose Bautista, on the other hand, is struggling mightily with one hit in his last 22 at-bats.
MEYER:
– Was once a highly-touted prospect but control has been an issue, allowing 20 BB in 28 innings. He does have 32 strikeouts in that same span and the Blue Jays are struggling, of course. I would just rather wait and see how things play out with him.
ANGELS OFFENSE:
+ Mike Trout has the highest DFSA grade of any Angels player, to no one’s surprise. Trout is only 1-for-8 (2B, 3 Ks) against Latos, but RHBs hit .321 avg, .828 OPS against him last season. That’s good news for Yunel Escobar, Albert Pujols, CJ Cron and Andrelton Simmons (who is 6-for-12, 3 2B vs Latos).
– Unfortunately, this Angels offense is pathetic at the moment with 16 runs in their last nine games. Hopefully, a matchup with Latos and a return back home can get them back in the right mindset.
Miami Marlins (Adam Conley- L) @ San Diego Padres (Trevor Cahill- R)
CONLEY:
– Pitched well at times this season, but there’s no reason to go here on a 15-game slate.
MARLINS OFFENSE:
+ Marcell Ozuna leads the majors in RBIs
+ Christian Yelich: 9-for-24 with 3 HR and 8 RBI in his last six games
***From 2014-16, LHBs hit Cahill for a .292 avg, RHBs: .229***
* Notable BvP against Cahill:
+ Ichiro Suzuki: 12-for-31 (2 2B, 3 BB, 2 Ks)
+ AJ Ellis: 8-for-25 (HR, 4 Ks)
+ Dee Gordon: 7-for-17 (2 2B, 3 BB, 1 K)
***9-for-26 in his last six games***
+ Giancarlo Stanton: 4-for-9 (2 2B, 4 BB, Ks)
CAHILL:
– He actually hasn’t been THAT terrible – 6 ER, 15 Ks in 11 1/3 innings. At the same time, I will never advocate the use of this man in anyone’s roster.
PADRES OFFENSE:
+ Wil Myers (.356 wOBA and 127 wRC+) and Hunter Renfroe (highest DFSA grade for any Padres player, .355 wOBA and 126 wRC+) are both crushing it against LHPs. Myers is also 9-for-27 in his last seven games, but also has eight strikeouts in that same span.