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Philadelphia 76ers @ Orlando Magic (-5.5, ML: -205) – O/U: 211
—————-Pace> PHI: 6 – ORL: 16
OFF Efficiency> PHI: 30 – ORL: 29
DEF Efficiency> PHI: 17 – ORL: 23
Matchup:
Magic lead season series (ORL: 103 – @PHI: 101), (ORL: 105 – @PHI: 88), (PHI: 112 – @ORL: 111)
Magic are 7-3 (4-6 ATS) vs Sixers in their last 10 meetings
Six of the last 10 Magic/Sixers games have gone OVER the total
PHI:
5-12 (outright) on B2Bs
37-24 ATS as the underdog
Jahlil Okafor (QUESTIONABLE- knee)
Justin Anderson (QUESTIONABLE- illness)
Joel Embiid (OUT for the season- knee)
Dario Saric posted 43.1 FDP against the Magic in their last meeting. He’s been solid over the last nine games, only killing your lineup once in that span. For what it’s worth, Saric has the three highest FDP totals of any Sixers player over the last five games.
So of course, I mention Jahlil Okafor on Friday’s podcast, he tweaks a knee and subsequently plays a combined 33 minutes over the weekend. Cool story, bro! Richaun Holmes seems to be running away with this timeshare and he’s crushed salary-based expectations in four of the last five games. Hey, if these sites are going to leave him at an affordable price, I’m in.
ORL:
11-22-1 ATS at home
5-11-1 ATS as the favorite
Jodie Meeks (PROBABLE- thumb)
Nikola Vucevic has done well against the Sixers this season with FDP totals of 49.8, 40.7 and 35.7 in the three meetings. Vuc has been balling outrageous since coming back from his four-game hiatus and that has caused his price tag to rise, but we all know the Sixers are allowing opposing centers to have a career night…on a nightly basis.
Evan Fournier nearly triple-doubled (24 pts, 9 reb, 8 ast- 42.8 FDP) last time out against the Sixers and also exceeded 5x value in the others two games (30.5 and 28.3 FDP). Fournier’s minutes have been going down a bit of late, so that keeps him in GPP territory only.
Atlanta Hawks @ Charlotte Hornets (-5, ML: -240) – O/U: 203
—————-Pace> ATL: 10 – CHA: 19
OFF Efficiency> ATL: 26 – CHA: 14
DEF Efficiency> ATL: 4 – CHA: 8
Matchup:
Hornets won both meetings (@CHA: 100 – ATL: 96), (CHA: 107 – @ATL: 99)
Hornets have covered six of the last nine games vs Hawks
Eight of the last 10 Hawks/Hornets games have gone UNDER the total
ATL:
12-9 ATS as the underdog
9-19 ATS vs Southeastern Division over the last two seasons
19-8 ATS in road games off an upset loss as the favorite over the last three seasons
Paul Millsap (OUT for next two games- knee)
Kent Bazemore (OUT- knee)
Mike Dunleavy (OUT- ankle)
Tim Hardaway Jr and Ersan Ilyasova (WILL START FOR FORESEEABLE FUTURE)
Dwight Howard will get a major upgrade with Millsap out of the lineup. Howard hasn’t been crushing the stat sheet over the last few games but you can attribute that to tough matchups; give him the benefit of the doubt against the Hornets.
Millsap’s absence also benefits Ersan Ilyasova, who posted 34.3 FDP in 27 minutes on Saturday against the Blazers. The Hornets have been getting toasted by power forwards all season, giving up the sixth-most fantasy points to them all season and the fifth-most over the last 10 games. Taurean Prince is also an option since he’s played at least 29 minutes in three of the last four games, posting 29 FDP twice in that span; Saturday’s game against the Blazers he played 31 minutes and posted 23.2 FDP.
Aside from a clunker against the Grizzlies last week, Tim Hardaway Jr has been a beacon of consistency over the last nine games. The Hornets are also allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to shooting guards this season.
CHA:
14-20 ATS at home
Miles Plumlee (OUT- calf)
Ramon Sessions (OUT- knee)
Kemba Walker has posted 39 FDP twice against the Hawks this season, and this is a matchup that we have seen plenty of point guards excel in. Unfortunately, Kemba has only posted a total of 37.6 FDP in the last two games combined and this comes after a strong showing in eight of a previous nine games.
Nicolas Batum showed some rust on Saturday after a two-game absence, playing only 27 minutes and posting 24.5 FDP against the Wizards. Batum is always a triple-double threat but most people will likely shy away from him…and that’s perfect for GPPs.
Marvin Williams has been solid over the last 10 games. Sure, there were two slip-ups but this is a guy who has basically been forgotten about. With no Millsap for the Hawks, Williams will have a much easier matchup to deal with.
Utah Jazz (-3, ML: -150) @ Indiana Pacers – O/U: 192
—————-Pace> UTA: 30 – IND: 17
OFF Efficiency> UTA: 13 – IND: 15
DEF Efficiency> UTA: 3 – IND: 16
Matchup:
Jazz won the only meeting (@UTA: 109 – IND: 100)
UTA:
Rodney Hood (QUESTIONABLE- knee)
Derrick Favors (OUT- knee)
Shelvin Mack (OUT- ankle)
Gordon Hayward returns home to Indiana and that gives him a home on #NarrativeStreet. Aside from last season, Hayward has done well in this matchup since getting big minutes with the Jazz; that game last season was on the back-end of a B2B for the Jazz and they completely stomped out the Pacers in the second half, outscoring them 55-27. Hayward gets the Pacers, who are on the back-end of a B2B, and since this is a game that most people won’t target, it makes him perfect for GPPs.
Rudy Gobert will have a fantastic matchup against the Pacers undersized frontline, and as you can see (below) this is a spot that he’s thrived in this season. Since the Pacers are on the back-end of a B2B, there’s a chance that a lot of rebounds will be up for grabs.
George Hill spent five seasons with the Pacers before moving on to Utah, and just like his teammate Hayward that gives him a home on #NarrativeStreet. The Pacers have improved their defense against point guards since the All-Star break but Corey Joseph just roasted them for 32 FDP last night- that coupled with Hill’s narrative makes him a decent GPP play.
IND:
4-12 (3-11-2 ATS) on B2Bs
12-18-1 ATS as the underdog
NO INJURIES
It’s never a great matchup going against the Jazz, but Paul George is probably your best bet. There are plenty of other logical players in better matchups, so don’t feel like you have to force him into your lineups.
Washington Wizards @ Boston Celtics (-3.5, ML: -150) – O/U: 215.5
—————-Pace> WSH: 11 – BOS: 14
OFF Efficiency> WSH: 9 – BOS: 8
DEF Efficiency> WSH: 19 – BOS: 12
Matchup:
Wizards lead season series (@WSH: 118 – BOS: 93), (@BOS: 117 – WSH: 108), (@WSH: 123 – BOS: 108)
Celtics have covered seven of the last 10 games vs Wizards
WSH:
13-18-1 ATS on the road
Markieff Morris (PROBABLE- illness)
Trey Burke (QUESTIONABLE- illness)
John Wall has the best matchup on the board going against the NBA’s worst on-ball defender, Isaiah Thomas. However, the Celtics have done a decent job against Wall this season, only allowing him to get near that 5x value mark on FanDuel once. DraftKings has been the better spot to play him for a while now, and that won’t change until he comes below $10K.
Bradley Beal has excelled against the Celtics this season with FDP totals of 45.4 and 39.9…but there’s a reason for that. Shooting guards against the Celtics typically aren’t the greatest idea, and that’s because Avery Bradley is manning that spot. In those two games Beal went off, AB was in street clothes- that’s what we call: a deeper look at the numbers.
The Wizards do have a nice size advantage with their bigs against the Celtics, but Markieff Morris coming back into the fold doesn’t help us pick out the main beneficiary of the bunch. Marcin Gortat, Jason Smith and Ian Mahinmi all take a significant hit with his return.
BOS:
9-6 (outright) on B2Bs
12-20 ATS at home
Isaiah Thomas (PROBABLE- missed last two games, knee)
Isaiah Thomas has the three-highest FDP totals (47.5, 46.7 and 42.2) of any Celtics player against the Wizards this season. He actually missed the last two games with a bone bruise in his knee, so if you’re a glass-half-full kinda person then he got some extra rest- if you’re on the opposite end, he could be rusty upon return. Vegas did give the Celtics a two-point boost from their initial -1.5 spread so that would put me in better spirits.
Al Horford has been noticeably better over the last few games and his comeback may have come full circle yesterday with a whopping 50.6 FDP output against the Sixers yesterday afternoon. Power forward is the spot to attack this Wizards team (yes, Horford typically plays there more…not center) and this could be a nice calculated move for GPPs.
Denver Nuggets @ Houston Rockets (-9, ML: -465) – O/U: 236.5
—————-Pace> DEN: 8 – HOU: 4
OFF Efficiency> DEN: 4 – HOU: 2
DEF Efficiency> DEN: 29 – HOU: 14
Matchup:
Rockets won both meetings (HOU: 128 – @DEN: 110), (HOU: 109 – @DEN: 105) – both on B2B
Rockets are 6-3 (straight up/ATS) vs Nuggets in their last nine meetings
DEN:
Wilson Chandler (OUT- groin)
Danilo Gallinari (OUT- knee)
Darrell Arthur (OUT- knee)
Nikola Jokic and Mason Plumlee have fantastic outlooks in this one. The Rockets interior defense has left a lot to be desired for quite some time now, and both guys can certainly take advantage of this. It was actually Plumlee that bested Jokic in the same matchup between the two teams on Saturday, but you can attribute foul trouble to the failure of the latter.
There was a similar situation between Gary Harris and Will Barton, where one player got the best of another. Barton’s shot just simply wasn’t falling on Saturday and Harris kept rolling along like he has been over the last couple of games. Basic human instincts will have you believe that the herd will follow Harris as he continues on a hot streak, while people will be skeptical of Barton since he finally had a bad performance. I’m sorry, not sorry, but Barton will still have a great outlook since Chandler and Gallo are still on the shelf.
Juancho Hernangomez is still playable, especially since he’s played 26 and 28 minutes respectively over the last two games.
HOU:
NO INJURIES
The Rockets have beaten the Nuggets twice, and both games were on the back-end of a B2B for the victors…in the toughest city to play in the NBA. Now that they actually have some rest for this matchup, the sky is the limit.
James Harden has been a roll these last four games…
As Harden has been rolling, Lou Williams (hasn’t hit 20 FDP in three of the last four games) and Eric Gordon (only hit 25 FDP once in the last seven games) have been struggling to pull their weight. However, Vegas think the Rockets are going to kick some ass tonight and if these two are ever going to get back on the good foot, doing it against the NBA’s second-worst defense is probably as good a time as any.
Clint Capela is one of the best cash game plays on the board. He’s been right there at 5x value or better all but three times since the All-Star break. If you want a cheaper version, look no further than his teammate Nene Hilario who has performed admirably when given the minutes over the last few games. The Nuggets are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game inside the paint this season.
Golden State Warriors (-1.5, ML: -130) @ Oklahoma City Thunder – O/U: 222
—————-Pace> GS: 2 – OKC: 7
OFF Efficiency> GS: 1 – OKC: 16
DEF Efficiency> GS: 2 – OKC: 9
Matchup:
Warriors won all three meetings (@GS: 122 – OKC: 96), (@GS: 121 – OKC: 100), (GS: 130 – OKC: 114)
Warriors are 13-4 (11-5-1 ATS) vs Thunder in their last 17 meetings
11 of the last 17 Thunder/Warriors games have gone UNDER the total
GS:
Front-end of a B2B, @ Dallas tomorrow night
Kevin Durant (OUT- knee)
We saw the Warriors snap out of their funk these last two games, but Vegas thinks they can slip back into it…at least for one night.
I think the one player above all that I would take a chance on is Stephen Curry. Earlier in the week, Russell Westbrook was asked what he thought about Curry’s opinion on who should be MVP. Curry said James Harden should get it, yada yada yada…Westbrook responded (in reference to Curry), “Who?” If I were Curry, I’d be like, “The two-time reigning MVP, bruh.” Anyways, I expect Curry to be somewhat fired up for this one…whether he wants to admit it or not.
Klay Thompson and Draymond Green are always fine GPP or cash options. Both should be right around 5x value and have been doing so since Kevin Durant has been injured.
Andre Iguodala has performed well above salary-based expectations over the last two games, but those were both in convincing Warriors’ wins. Vegas isn’t painting that picture for us tonight so he might be best saved for another night.
OKC:
22-12-1 ATS at home
14-6 ATS after a win by 10+ points
NO INJURIES
Russell Westbrook is on one helluva heater right now, but it’s no secret that the Warriors have been a thorn in the side of OKC this season. I believe the -130 on the Warriors’ money line is way too low, and Vegas could be telling us that OKC will finally break the winless streak against the team that ousted them from the playoffs last season.
I really like OKC to win this game tonight so it’s possible that more players than Westbrook can have big statistical nights. Steven Adams and Enes Kanter could be those guys, considering we have seen opposing bigs have their way at times against the Warriors. The previous performances against them this season don’t hold many answers since the Warriors smashed OKC in all three meetings. This game should have a whole new feel and that’s where the Stash Brothers come into play.
New York Knicks @ Los Angeles Clippers (-11, ML: -800) – O/U: 215.5
—————-Pace> NYK: 13 – LAC: 18
OFF Efficiency> NYK: 19 – LAC: 7
DEF Efficiency> NYK: 25 – LAC: 18
Matchup:
Clippers won the only meeting (LAC: 119 – @NYK: 115)
Clippers are 5-0 (4-1 ATS) vs Knicks in their last five meetings
Four of the last five Clippers/Knicks games have gone UNDER the total
NYK:
Kristaps Porzingis (WILL PLAY- thigh)
I’m not sure what to do with this Knicks team anymore, and it looks like they want to get a look at some of the players that could make up their future.
I doubt Kristaps Porzingis plays many minutes or makes much of an impact in his first game back from injury.
I’m done with Carmelo Anthony, and you should be too. Maybe there is some glimmer of hope where he shows the Clippers what they missed at the trade deadline. Probably not.
Willy Hernangomez will be thoroughly mismatched up against DJ or Griffin; we saw him in a similar matchup against a massive center (Brook Lopez) twice last week and he struggled a great deal.
LAC:
Front-end of a B2B, vs Lakers tomorrow
18-14-1 ATS at home
Diamond Stone (QUESTIONABLE- knee)
Chris Paul has literally been one of those fucked up graph charts that go up and down and up and down over the last four games. This is the Knicks that he’s playing tonight, and that’s the good news, but it’s also the bad news. I doubt they’ll need CP3 to post outrageous numbers against this dumpster fire visiting the Staples Center.
Blake Griffin finished with 38.7 FDP (23 pts, 8 reb, 4 ast) in 31 minutes, and he would have done more if the Clippers didn’t blow out the Cavs on Saturday. Griffin has been a slighter version of John Wall, in the fact that he just can’t get over that 5x value mark and he’ll basically die while trying to do so.
I have no idea what the Knicks will do to stop DeAndre Jordan tonight. Maybe the same thing the US Army did when Godzilla was roaming around NYC…massive nets and high-powered missiles? In any event, DJ has been crushing it over the last four games, with the only misstep coming against defensive-powerhouse Utah.
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