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Atlanta Hawks (-2.5, ML: -155) @ Orlando Magic – O/U: 205.5
————-Pace> ATL: 7th – ORL: 21st
OFF Efficiency> ATL: 22nd – ORL: 26th
DEF Efficiency> ATL: 5th – ORL: 19th
Line Analysis:
After weathering their early-season crisis, I expect the Hawks to start turning it up now. They’ve won four out of their last five games, including three in a row, and tonight they’re favored against a Magic team that is giving up 112.3 PPG since December 6th, a span of 15 games. A lot of money is on the Magic tonight at +2.5 so, just as I have been taught when I started my Vegas training, I will run the other way when seeing a number like that.
ATL:
Paul Millsap is back to his old consistent self, and that’s the guy that we all remember. However, the Magic have not allowed a power forward to notch more than 45 FDP this season so that’s something that we have to take into account. I would much rather Dwight Howard, who could do some serious damage against this weak Magic frontline. He’s only played his former team once as a member of the Hawks, and it went quite well- 20 points and 16 rebounds. Now if he could only add some peripherals to that statline, we could be on to something.
Since the Magic are allowing so many PPG, we should definitely look at some other players for the Hawks. Dennis Schroder has only killed your lineup once in the last seven games, and if we’re talking about scoring a lot of points he should be in the middle of it all. Kyle Korver has posted totals of 27.6 and 33.6 FDP in his last two games, both against solid defensive units in the Pistons and Spurs.
ORL:
-Evan Fournier (questionable- missed last five games, heel)
It’s an interesting conundrum for Serge Ibaka tonight. On one hand, we have seen stretch four/stretch four types do very well against the Hawks this season. On the other hand, Millsap ranks fourth overall in individual defense, according to DRPM. Whatever the case may be, Ibaka did go for 37.6 FDP when the two teams met a few weeks ago.
Elfrid Payton makes sense here in this matchup once again if Fournier is out. The Hawks have been terrible against point guards this season and Payton has been a focal point of the Magic offense while their main perimeter guy has been out.
Nikola Vucevic has posted three straight games of at least 37 FDP, but I really don’t like putting my centers up against the massive Howard. You ever try to put a basketball through the trees?
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Charlotte Hornets (-2.5, ML: -140) – O/U: 209
————-Pace> OKC: 9th – CHA: 17th
OFF Efficiency> OKC: 15th – CHA: 13th
DEF Efficiency> OKC: 7th – CHA: 8th
Line Analysis:
-The Hornets have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 12 games
-OKC is 6-3 against the spread in their last nine games
OKC:
-Cameron Payne (out- D-League assignment…nearing return)
A lot will be made today about Russell Westbrook going up against MKG and the “tough and rugged” Charlotte Hornets defense. But let’s not forget this is the same Hornets team that just allowed Jimmy Butler to score 52 real points in their last game. There could be a shortage of superstars on tonight’s slate, depending on what happens in Cleveland, and the only time Westbrook doesn’t work for us is when he doesn’t fit into our budget, right?
I’m interested in Steven Adams and Enes Kanter for this matchup as well. On Monday against the Bucks, it was Adams that balled outrageous to the tune of 40.6 FDP while Kanter basically went through the motions and put up 9.5 FDP. Typically, that is not how it goes down but I think both could be very successful tonight.
Victor Oladipo has looked competent in his two games since making his way back into the OKC lineup. This isn’t the greatest matchup for him, but if (for whatever reason) OKC has to defer to him more on the offensive end, his $5500 DK/$5400 FD price tag seems quite appealing.
CHA:
-Cody Zeller (out- sat out last game, concussion protocol)
-Marco Belinelli (questionable- missed last five games, ankle)
I’m not particularly thrilled about the outlook for the Hornets tonight. OKC is a much different team defensively now that Oladipo is back in the lineup, but it’s tough to overlook what Kemba Walker has done in his last two games- 46.5 FDP vs CLE, 56.2 FDP @ CHI. It’s no secret that we like our Kemba at home, so I expect him to be handsomely owned tonight.
Nicolas Batum has cooled off a bit in his last two games (33.7, 34.2 FDP) but it’s not like he’s totally sucked either. I would expect this type of performance tonight in a much tougher matchup.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is a very interesting play, and that’s because he’ll likely spend most of his night defending Westbrook. On one hand, I’m nervous about this because he could find himself in foul trouble, but on the other hand, he could get his hands on a couple of the seven turnovers Westbrook is likely to cough up…and that’ll give him some extra points.
Milwaukee Bucks (-2.5, ML: -140) @ New York Knicks – O/U: 213
————-Pace> MIL: 20th – NYK: 10th
OFF Efficiency> MIL: 8th – NYK: 16th
DEF Efficiency> MIL: 11th – NYK: 25th
Line Analysis:
I’m very shocked that this line opened up as a pick em, so I guess that means we have to actually respect the Knicks tonight ?. Doesn’t mean that I have to like it. The Bucks rank well above average on both ends of the floor, while the Knicks…do not. The Knicks have also lost five straight games and eight out of their last 10, which makes the opening spread even more confusing. Something fishy is going on here…
MIL:
-Matthew Dellavedova (out- missed last three games, hamstring)
Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker go up against one of the worst defensive units in the NBA this season. Spoiler alert: I am VERY interested. The Greek hasn’t topped 50 fantasy points in four of his last five games, but he’s been right there at the mark; this matchup against the Knicks tonight is the X-factor that’ll push him over the edge. Jabari had a rough shooting night against OKC on Monday, so that kept his FP total to a minimum…and it still didn’t totally kill you. The Zingis is probably going to miss this game and that bodes very well for Jabari. All in all, the Knicks don’t have anyone to guard The Greek or Jabari, so go ahead have yourself a feast!
Malcolm Brogdon has lacked massive upside at his $5300 DK/$4400 FD price tag in two of his three starts with Matthew Dellavedova on the shelf. However, the one big game that he had was BIG- 15 points, 12 assists, 11 rebounds…in the industry, that’s called a triple-double. Against the Knicks, we should see the massive upside come back around again.
Greg Monroe has been great lately at his $4800 DK/$5200 FD price tag with 30+ fantasy points in four of his last six games- one of those was for 29.4 FDP, so we’re just gonna round up…hmmK? Also, of all the teams on tonight’s slate, the Knicks have shown the most vulnerability to the center position.
NYK:
-Kristaps Porzingis (questionable- missed last two games, Achilles) – UPDATE: Reports have him as “trying to play.”
This Knicks team absolutely drives me up a wall. However, it does look as if KP will be out for this game so Carmelo Anthony, Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah will get a big increase in usage once again. If my line analysis rant proves to be true, these guys could have a big say in how this night plays out. I expect The Greek to defend Melo, and that’s not a good thing for Melo- The Greek is the fifth-best overall defender in the NBA, according to DRPM. This could put a lot more on the plate for D-Rose and Noah in that sense.
I would also look to some other Knicks players for decent value in this one. Courtney Lee, Brandon Jennings, Justin Holiday and Kyle O’Quinn are all candidates to play the role of sneaky assassin tonight.
Chicago Bulls @ Cleveland Cavaliers (-8, ML: -205) – O/U: 204.5
————-Pace> CHI: 23rd – CLE: 15th
OFF Efficiency> CHI: 17th – CLE: 4th
DEF Efficiency> CHI: 13th – CLE: 14th
CHI:
-Dwayne Wade (GTD- missed last game, knee)
Jimmy Butler will be a fantastic play once again if D-Wade sits this game out. Butler has been on one helluva roll lately and if Cleveland’s Big Three are out, I’m not sure who is going to stop him.
Michael Carter-Williams and Taj Gibson would also be interesting plays if D-Wade is indeed out.
CLE:
-JR Smith and Chris Anderson (out)
-LeBron James (questionable- flu)
-Kyrie Irving (questionable- missed last two games, hamstring)
-Kevin Love (questionable- left last game, food poisoning)
Well, we’re all patiently waiting on the status of the Cavs Big Three, and so far, nothing. So let’s make this easy, shall we?
If they are in, they’re all pretty good plays- nothing Earth-shattering coming from me there. If someone is out, then you play whoever is in.
Now, for the million-dollar question: What do you do if all three are out? RUN!!!!!! No, I’m kidding. Well, kind of…
Luckily, they are playing the Bulls and not the #1 ranked defense of the Grizzlies like the last time we saw this scenario play out. I think guys like Jordan McRae, Channing Frye, Tristan Thompson and Iman Shumpert are all in play. Just know that it’s all a crapshoot.
Memphis Grizzlies (-1.5, ML: -120) @ Los Angeles Clippers – O/U: 198.5
————-Pace> MEM: 28th – LAC: 16th
OFF Efficiency> MEM: 23rd – LAC: 6th
DEF Efficiency> MEM: 1st – LAC: 10th
Line Analysis:
-Grizzlies played last night, in Los Angeles, and didn’t log any travel miles in this B2B scenario
-Grizzlies are 5-7 in their last 12 games, incredibly 5-7 ATS in that same span
-Clippers were winless without Chris Paul this season (0-5), until Monday’s win against the Suns
-This game does have the lowest total of the evening
MEM:
Point guards have been faring well against the Clippers with CP3 out of the lineup. Tonight, it’s time for Mike Conley to add his name to the list of advantage takers. Even with CP3 in the lineup, Conley toasted the Clippers twice early on this season to the tune of 53.4 and 50 FDP.
Marc Gasol is dealing with a sore ankle, but that didn’t stop him from posting 40.7 FPD last night. Against the Clippers this season, Gasol has had two very similar totals of 42.2 and 43 FDP so I would expect something in that area. He probably won’t have much upside, so you’d be paying up for safety in this instance.
This should also be a great opportunity for JaMychal Green and Zach Randolph to take advantage of the spot vacated by Blake Griffin. Green has not fared well against the Clippers this season, but Z-Bo has posted totals of 26.9 and 24.8 FDP…and also triple-doubled against them last season.
LAC:
-Blake Griffin (out)
-Chris Paul (doubtful- missed six of last seven games, hamstring)
I’m not particularly thrilled about putting Clippers up against the number one defense in the NBA, but I’ll be a little more open to the idea since the Grizzlies played last night and this is a testy rivalry. Earlier this season, the Grizzlies came into Staples Center with their B-team and beat the Clippers at full strength. Now, it could be time for the Clippers to repay the favor with their B-team.
DeAndre Jordan has averaged 36.4 FDP in his last five games but there are plenty of other centers I’d rather have on tonight’s slate. I’m going to turn my attention to the not-so-fantastic foursome that we have relied on since CP3 has been out. Out of these fellas, I do like Jamal Crawford and Austin Rivers the most…Now, this isn’t too say that I like these guys enough to put them in my lineup, but I do like them more than JJ Redick or Raymond Felton. That is all.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Golden State Warriors (-15, ML: -4000) – O/U: 224
————-Pace> POR: 12th – GS: 3rd
OFF Efficiency> POR: 9th – GS: 2nd
DEF Efficiency> POR: 29th – GS: 3rd
Line Analysis:
Second-best offense against the second-worst defense…yeah, I see where this one is going. Not only that, but the Blazers have already lost to the Warriors by 23 and 45 points, respectively, in the two games that they faced off…and that was WITH Damian Lillard! I think I’m good on the analysis portion of this segment.
POR:
-Damian Lillard (doubtful- missed last four games, ankle)
It looks like Lillard will be out again, so just as we have documented in the past it’ll be CJ McCollum, Allen Crabbe and Evan Turner that see the biggest boosts in usage rate. However, this game could get ugly real quick and it’ll be interesting to see how much each guy is utilized. In my opinion, Crabbe is my favorite play here since he’s pretty much blowout proof.
GS:
-Patrick McCaw (questionable- missed last three games, illness)
Kevin Durant has been great all season long, whether the Warriors are blowing out their opponent or not. I believe this is the one player that we can count on each night to not disappoint us from this team.
As for the rest of the jump shooting circus, of course, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson have the ability to crush it every single night; it’s just tough to nail down exactly when that is going to be. Typically, I like rolling the dice with both guys, just know that it has only made me a rich man once- see: Klay vs the Pacers.
Draymond Green is not someone that I usually like to play, but that’s just because of my riverboat gambler stylo. Sure, he’s hella consistent but the guy just triple-doubled in his last game, but he only got you 41.5 FDP. I guess I like the play more on DraftKings, where those accolades get you bonus points, but on FanDuel it doesn’t do much for me. If I’m paying $7900 for someone on FanDuel, I’d at least like the opportunity to get 50 FDP and I don’t like how often that happens for Dray. Rant, over.
I’m a glutton for punishment, so I have to mention Andre Iguodala in this space once again. He’s $3400 DK/$3500 FD and this game should be an absolute blowout, which means he’ll get his fair share of minutes. Talk about a guy that doesn’t have any upside, but at least he’s incredibly cheap and that allows you to get more talent into your lineup. Ian Clark is in the same boat.
Miami Heat @ Sacramento Kings (-8, ML: -365) – O/U: 202
————-Pace> MIA: 24th – SAC: 25th
OFF Efficiency> MIA: 29th – SAC: 18th
DEF Efficiency> MIA: 12th – SAC: 24th
Line Analysis:
Both teams played last night, and we have seen this scenario churn out some pretty shitty games a couple times over the last few weeks. I’m not going to be surprised if there are a lot of disappointing fantasy performances from this game, especially since neither team was involved in a major blowout last night and got more rest than the other. I will say, though, the Kings did have that excruciating 45-minute pilgrimage from Pepsi Center to Denver International Airport after last night’s game. It’s somewhat mitigated by the fact that the Heat are playing with an unusually-trimmed roster. Boy, this should be fun…
MIA:
-Hassan Whiteside, Justise Winslow, Josh McRoberts (out- did not travel with team)
-Tyler Johnson (questionable- sat out last night, migraine)
-James Johnson (questionable- sat out last night, illness)
-Dion Waiters (questionable- was close to returning last night, groin)
Hopefully, J&J- Tyler Johnson and James Johnson will both be able to take the court tonight for the Heat. This will shed some minutes off the tired bodies they trotted out there, for what seemed like forever last night. If they are both in, I am very interested because of the time they’ll see on the court.
I have no idea what to do with Goran Dragic and Willie Reed. If the aforementioned Heat players are in tonight, that will make it an easier fade for me. But if they are out, sheesh! They’ll certainly see a ton of minutes, but how effective are they going to be? The Suns coaching staff made a fantastic adjustment at halftime on Dragic after he went ??? on them in the first half last night, so expect the Kings to trap him and make someone else beat them. I expect the Kings to do something to neutralize Reed as well; maybe attack the living shit out of him with Boogie as a start. There’s not much else that the Heat has in the form of big men, so that is how I would go about business. Reed will undoubtedly be popular tonight after his mega-performance last night, but if J.Johnson plays he certainly won’t see the number of minutes that he did last night.
SAC:
-Rudy Gay (questionable- missed eight of last nine games, hip)
-Ty Lawson (questionable- missed last night’s game, nasal issues)
DeMarcus Cousins should be in a fantastic spot against an undersized Heat frontline tonight. There will definitely be a ton of rebounds up for grabs, and that’s a good thing for Boogie since the Heat are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. Without Whiteside, though, ???.
Rudy Gay is doubtful tonight, so that should set Matt Barnes up for solid minutes once again in this game. He did play 28 last night, so I would assume something around there is feasible.
Ty Lawson is questionable, so if he’s out then Darren Collison would pick up big minutes again.
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