Welcome to the world’s fastest lineup breakdown in DFS NHL! Much like my favorite player of all time, Pavel Bure on a breakaway, this is going to hit you fast and hard so you can go about your day. You can find me in our VIP Slack Forums and on Twitter under the handle @ChoppoDong. Let’s fire up some conversation!
I am going to assume you know the basics of DFS like cash games, stacking, and short vs full slates. If not, look under our strategy tabs at dfsarmy.com. We have plenty of articles describing these terms designed to bring you up to speed quickly.
Target NHL Oh-fenses
RECAP – Well, if you played DFS NHL for the first time last night, let me apologize for the ENTIRE DFS COMMUNITY for the debacle that was the Pittsburgh Penguins. I know, I know…shit happens. But, wow. Everyone was on PIT with them having only lost twice at home all year, having the league’s 2nd best offense, and STL on the skids. When it looks too good to be true, sometimes it is. We also saw another high powered offense fall flat in the Washington Capitals. Nights like these happen, but they are rare. I can tell you late in the slate I was sitting on 13.6 DK points with my cash lineup and was still only 1.75 points away from cashing double ups and 5050s. That alone tells you how many people were on PIT and WSH. It also tells you why the chalk plays insulate you in cash formats. TIP – Never worry about differentiation/ownership in cash games.
I believe the fastest way to get up and running is to practice in 5050s and HTHs. Hockey is a highly volatile DFS sport where you can go on long winning and losing streaks at the drop of a hat….errr puck. (For example, just last night I hit most of my offensive teams, but didn’t have the correct lines that did the damage and failed to cash. Missed quite terribly honestly. But, the night before I missed on the goalie and still swept the table hitting my quintuples, triples, and 5050s with ease.)
Bankroll management is key and we want to stick to areas we can win most often in the beginning. If I planned to invest $10 per night, I’d have at least $8 spread out in HTHs or 5050s, and triple ups. As you gain experience, you will adjust your contest selection to your own style. For now, start at a 90:10 cash to GPP ratio.
Here are your best offenses to target today based on Corsi (For and Allowed), Scoring Chances (For and Allowed), Fantasy Points Scored (For and Allowed) over both a 4 week and 1 week period. Looking at today’s matchups within these team stats tells us which offenses are facing poor defenses, who likes to shoot, who allows shots, and which team is hot facing a team in the gutter. Add all that together and you get some neat areas on which to focus your attention.
Elite Options
1- New York Rangers – League’s 2nd best offense in terms of fantasy points scored on the season. If looking over last 4 weeks, they are tops. They are also clicking right along with the 2nd best fantasy point total over just the last week. In other words, they are consistently great. Look to plug their producers in, especially at home. PHI is rather mediocre this year and has been giving up fantasy points lately. This is a big green arrow for the Rangers. Don’t overthink them. Use them in all formats.
2- Toronto Maple Leafs – Another highly potent offense ranking in the top 5 darned near across the board. They have been a bit lukewarm last week, but bounced back already a couple of days ago. DET allows points and has a softer penalty kill. Since TOR has the 2nd best PP in the league, you can predict some special teams goals tonight with relative confidence. PP goals are much more predictable than even-strength goals, especially when a good PP unit matches up against a soft kill. All formats again.
Secondary Options
3- Detroit Redwings – If you follow the Maple Leafs, you likely have less hair because they score points but also give them up. DET has been so-so lately instead of on the bottom of the league. This leads me to look deeper when at home and facing a team that gives points. On a 4 game slate, our options are already limited so it begs us to look into the Red Wings. They are honestly as good a secondary option as any right now.
4- Colorado Avalanche – Yes, I’m going to like me some Avs tonight. This is caused by the small slate and the prices on these players. Vancouver does not play well on the road, which plays into COL’s hands tonight. COL gives up points like crazy, though, so if you wanted to roster some Canucks alongside the Avs I wouldn’t blame you one bit. I, however, will be on the home team.
5- FADE – I’m fading that late game. I have no interest in EDM or ANA either one. The Ducks are a bitch at home and rank near the top defensively. Also, they don’t score a lot. This indicates a lower scoring game to me and I want no part of it on any slate size. TIP 2 – If you are a contrarian, by all means, roster the hell out of this one and pray it bucks the tide. On short slates, this happens more often in NHL than NBA or NFL. Take advantage in larger tourneys and hope for the best. If it happens, you find yourself on an easy path to deep cash and possible victory if you have one-offs in the right places.
Two Pads Stacked
Goalies are premium sources of our production, and they are usually consistent if we don’t get too cute. Fight the urge to be contrarian and just pay up. You can differentiate elsewhere in NHL easily enough. Focus on heavy Vegas favorites and stay near the top of the salary range. Our target score on DraftKings is 30 points. Goalies earn 3 points for a victory alone. It’s much like the starting pitcher in baseball. Pick a goalie in line for the win and you are set up to cash that night more often than not.
Primary Option
1- It’s probably Henrik Lundqvist here from the NY Rangers. However, he is so up and down that I’m a little skittish. That -160 out of Vegas isn’t exactly screaming safety. But, he’s coming off an up game where he played really well. He’s at home. And, Philly isn’t a world beater most nights. I’m putting him here first because I think he’s the chalk. However….
2- I was going to sell you on John Gibson in Anaheim here, but I just looked again and see the expected goalie is Jonathan Bernier which tempers my expectations. ANA still plays well at home, and Bernier has an 8-4-1 record, but I’m not as high on him as I would have been Gibby. I can lean back to Lunq now.
Secondary Options
None….short slate.
Why No NHL Player Picks?
Well, because that takes a ton of time. This is a breakaway not some reverse rollerskate on disco night. Target the offenses I singled out for you and nail your goalie. Spread the wealth across the scoring lines for your skaters. If you want tips there, read my Cash Game Strategies piece because it lays out how to cast a wide net for NHL vs tighter stacking of full lines in GPPs.
But wait, there’s more…
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Filling in the Blanks
Sometimes a fun and interactive way to build lineups is to do them together. Well, I can’t be right next to you when you have all those tie-breaking questions between players, but I can get you started. Have fun with these, but most of all, learn from them. Go balanced with the rest, or stack them up with another offense. The choice is ultimately yours, but these are players from our list and how they might fit into a normal lineup. If you used any of these as your foundation, give me a shout on Twitter or in Slack and let me know when you do well.
DraftKings Lineup 1
Fairly reasonable with room to play…
DraftKings Lineup 2
Go big or go home. Top NYR line presses us a little for cap, but we can make this work if we want to.
The Smelly Mitt
Roster up some of your own lines, and don’t be shy about rubbing that smelly mitt in my face when you do well. Hopefully, this helped direct some of your research. There will be more talk in our NHL room for our VIPs. If not a member, don’t forget how to join up above. I hope to see you inside soon! #ChoppodongOut