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—NBA Daily Fantasy Breakdown – Saturday, November 19th—
Boston Celtics @ Detroit Pistons (-2.5, ML: -166) – O/U: 198
————-Pace– BOS: 15th / DET: 23rd
OFF Efficiency– BOS: 10th / DET: 25th
DEF Efficiency– BOS: 20th / DET: 7th
Line Analysis:
The Pistons spread is moving upwards of -3.5 and I have talked about teams possibly struggling on the back-end of a B2B after playing the Warriors…it’s mentally and physically draining. The Celtics certainly won’t have an easy time against this Pistons defense. Both teams did, however, get blown out last night in their respective games and were afforded a little more rest. I do like the Pistons to ultimately come away with the win.
BOS:
Jae Crowder (might play), Al Horford (doubtful), Marcus Smart (questionable)
–Isaiah Thomas has the best matchup of all the Celtics tonight. If all the guys listed above don’t end up playing, he becomes a must play.
-The Pistons have given up some big games to opposing centers this season. He burned a lot of people last night, including me, but Kelly Olynyk (and maybe Tyler Zeller) could turn into a beneficial value play.
DET:
– I would avoid challenging the Boston backcourt at all costs, but everywhere else is in play. Andre Drummond is the second-highest rated center on the DFS Army Projections. In three of the four games against Boston last season, he was below average…but he did have a 55.9 FDP game in the other one. Marcus Morris and Tobias Harris are acceptable plays and Jon Leuer could even be used if you’re in dire need of savings.
Dallas Mavericks @ Orlando Magic (-5.5, ML: -385) – O/U: 184
————Pace– DAL: 29th / ORL: 25th
OFF Efficiency– DAL: 29th / ORL: 27th
DEF Efficiency– DAL: 10th / ORL: 15th
Line Analysis:
Vegas hates the Mavs tonight and the spread getting bumped in favor of the Magic to -7.5 indicates that and then some. To be frank, the Mavs just don’t have the bodies to go to war right now. Mid-way through the third quarter in last night’s game, they had 50 points….50 points! To put that in perspective, Russell Westbrook had 40 fantasy points by himself at the half last night. I guess that second-worst offensive efficiency rating makes sense after all.
DAL:
Dirk Nowitzki, Deron Williams, JJ Barea, Devin Harris (out)
-With so many injuries, Harrison Barnes is going to be forced to take a bazillion shots once again. For volume alone, he’s probably worth taking a shot on.
–Seth Curry and Wesley Matthews are still ridiculously cheap for the number of minutes they’ll be asked to play.
-Orlando has been terrible down low, so Andrew Bogut and Dwight Powell could work in this scenario.
ORL:
-Dallas has been a solid defensive team, but their biggest vulnerability has been against opposing centers. The rotation between Nikola Vucevic and Bismack Biyombo has been incredibly inconsistent, so it’s probably best to avoid it altogether.
–Elfrid Payton may go overlooked tonight, but he gets a favorable matchup against a weak defender in Curry and a very tired team altogether.
Miami Heat @ Washington Wizards (-4.5, ML: -180) – O/U: 199.5
————Pace– MIA: 24th / WSH: 17th
OFF Efficiency– MIA: 28th / WSH: 20th
DEF Efficiency– MIA: 3rd / WSH: 22nd
Line Analysis:
I really don’t get how the Wizards are favored in this game…they suck. Lately, the Heat have sucked as well, but they are not THIS bad. In the end, I believe Miami’s defense will win out…in a big way.
MIA:
Justise Winslow (out), Wayne Ellington (out), Dion Waiters (game-time decision)
-With multiple injuries to the Heat, look for Hassan Whiteside to continue dominating.
–James Johnson has been awesome this season and he’s incredibly valuable since he can play the three, four and five. With Winslow out, look for him to see big minutes tonight.
–Josh Richardson and Tyler Johnson should see a healthy number of minutes if Waiters sits this one out.
WSH:
-This is not a good matchup for John Wall and the rest of his cronies. Miami’s defense is legit and Wall saw this four times last season, not reaching 40 FDP once against them.
Bradley Beal and Otto Porter have been doing a tremendous job of reaching value lately…especially Porter, who has notched at least 36 FDP in four of his last six games.
Charlotte Hornets (-5, ML: -160) @ New Orleans Pelicans – O/U: 206
————Pace– CHA: 11th / NO: 8th
OFF Efficiency– CHA: 11th / NO: 26th
DEF Efficiency– CHA: 4th / NO: 14th
Line Analysis:
The spread has dropped two points on the Hornets bringing it to -3. Both teams played last night, so neither team has the advantage of more rest. However, this is going to be the fourth B2B set the Pelicans have already played in the first month of the season; this will be the second for the Hornets.
CHA:
Jeremy Lamb (out), Cody Zeller (questionable)
-With the exception to shooting guards, the Pelicans are giving up an average of 40+ fantasy points to each position. Nicolas Batum should be just fine, but it’s Kemba Walker that I have my eye on specifically. Kemba came out struggling from the field last night, and he’s the kind of player that won’t let that happen two nights in a row. Regardless of those struggles, he finished with 39 FDP.
-If Zeller misses the game tonight, then Frank Kaminsky, Roy Hibbert and Spencer Hawes could potentially see more minutes. I’m not intrigued by any of those guys.
NO:
–Anthony Davis has had some bad performances this season on the back-end of B2Bs, but his last one accumulated 54.1 FDP against the Kings. It is certainly worth noting that the Hornets have given up the fourth-fewest points in the paint per game this season. Terrence Jones still gets some consideration if he continues to play 30+ minutes.
-With Jrue Holiday back in the lineup, the Pelicans backcourt situation is a lot more uncertain. Holiday looked awesome in his season debut, but with this being a B2B game you have to wonder what his and all the other guards’ outlooks are going to look like tonight.
Phoenix Suns (-2, ML: -140) @ Philadelphia 76ers – O/U: 213
————Pace– PHX: 2nd / PHI: 15th
OFF Efficiency– PHX: 18th / PHI: 30th
DEF Efficiency– PHX: 24th / PHI: 27th
Line Analysis:
Loads of fantasy goodness should be on deck tonight in the City of Brotherly Love, as both teams rank in the bottom-third of the NBA in defense. The Suns did play last night and got a convincing win over the Pacers, while the Sixers are coming off an embarrassing defeat at Minnesota on Thursday. The Sixers may have the advantage with an extra day of rest…but keep in mind, they are the Sixers.
PHX:
Tyson Chandler (out), TJ Warren (out), Devin Booker (doubtful)
-It takes a lottery-winning approach to try and figure out if the production will be coming from Eric Bledsoe, Devin Booker or Brandon Knight this season. I love their individual matchups against the Sixers tonight, but it’s definitely a gamble. UPDATE: Booker is questionable, and if he’s out then Bledsoe and Knight should be solid options.
–Alex Len will be a great option (and probably high-owned) once again since Chandler isn’t with the team. The Sixers are giving up the fourth-most points in the paint per game this season.
-If Warren can’t go, PJ Tucker will get all the minutes he can handle. We’ve seen Tucker perform admirably in previous years, so this will probably be a popular play as well.
PHI:
Jahlil Okafor (24 mins restriction), Joel Embiid (questionable)
-We have to wait for word on Embiid, but a ton of minutes could potentially open up in his absence. Dario Saric, Ersan Ilyasova and Richaun Holmes would all be viable cost-efficient plays. Saric and Ilyasova are still playable no matter what.
-The Suns have given up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing backcourts this season. However, we’re not sure where this production is coming from on a nightly basis. Nick Stauskas has been consistently getting 25 minutes per game and producing accordingly to his price. I don’t mind Gerald Henderson either.
-Doesn’t this just feel like a Robert Covington kind of night? Said no one ever. He’s currently in Brett Brown’s dog house, but the matchup is just so damn appealing if Warren is out for the Suns tonight.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Memphis Grizzlies (PK) – O/U: 204.5
————Pace– MIN: 20th / MEM: 27th
OFF Efficiency– MIN: 2nd / MEM: 24th
DEF Efficiency– MIN: 22nd / MEM: 12th
Line Analysis:
The spread has actually moved to -3 in favor of the T-Wolves, probably because the Grizz are on the back-end of a B2B. I think the T-Wolves roll easily tonight, mainly because their star players are younger and had an easy win on Thursday which allowed them extra rest.
MIN:
Shabazz Muhammad (questionable)
–Andrew Wiggins is en fuego right now…fade at your own risk.
-As for the rest of the T-Wolves, there’s not a particular spot that I want to target. If we get word that the Grizz are sitting their stars then I’d be interested in Karl-Anthony Towns or Gorgui Dieng.
MEM:
Tony Allen (probable), Chandler Parson (questionable)
-The Grizzlies said they would be very cautious with Mike Conley and Marc Gasol so I’m going to be cautious about them tonight. Conley played 29 minutes last night and Gasol played 24; maybe that’s an indicator that they’ll be playing. Regardless, they are old and going against some young bucks this evening. No thanks.
Golden State Warriors (-9.5, ML: -260) @ Milwaukee Bucks – O/U: 223
————Pace– GS: 3rd / MIL: 17th
OFF Efficiency– GS: 1st / MIL: 22nd
DEF Efficiency– GS: 15th / MIL: 12th
Line Analysis:
There have been rumors that the Warriors could possibly sit one of their stars, but I have no indication of this just yet. The spread has actually gone down to points to -7.5, but I don’t have much of a feeling on that. If you remember, the Warriors lost their first game last season in Milwaukee and that ended their historic run. They also played a very tight game in Golden State six days later and it got pretty testy between the two teams. Tonight is going to be a battle.
GS:
-Same ol’ story for the Warriors…all the studs are in play as of now. If any of them sit, the other guys will get a huge bump.
MIL:
–Giannis Antetokounmpo underperformed in his last game against the Heat, but he should do just fine tonight in an up-tempo matchup. He didn’t top 40 FDP in either matchup last season, but without Khris Middleton, The Greek has had to do a lot more…just like he will tonight.
–Greg Monroe had great games against the Warriors last season, but he’s only played a combined SEVEN MINUTES in the last two games. Gross.
Chicago Bulls @ Los Angeles Clippers (-7.5, ML: -275) – O/U: 204
————Pace– CHI: 22nd / LAC: 14th
OFF Efficiency– CHI: 9th / LAC: 3rd
DEF Efficiency– CHI: 7th / LAC: 2nd
Line Analysis:
The seven-point spread is a bit surprising, considering the Clippers just played last night. I don’t feel like Vegas is putting too much stock into the Bulls because they haven’t played many good teams this season. Regardless of what Vegas thinks, I think we see a close game since the Clippers are on the back-end of a B2B.
CHI:
Rajon Rondo (game-time decision)
–Jimmy Butler is the main target from the Bulls. This isn’t an easy matchup by any means, but this is Jimmy Buckets we’re talking about here. He’s had at least 41 FDP in five of his last six games.
-Dwayne Wade isn’t doing enough for his price and the Clippers are holding shooting guards to the fewest amount of fantasy points this season.
-I do have some interest in Robin Lopez, since he’s been crushing the minuscule price tag he’s been given. RoLo has notched at least 27.8 FDP in his last five games.
LAC:
-I’m interested to see if the Bulls put Butler on Chris Paul tonight. If so, that would suck. I still think Paul could be a fine option, but that might limit his upside.
–Blake Griffin may go overlooked tonight with all the value available at power forward. He’s put up totals of 45 and 50 FDP in the last two games. The Bulls have given up the ninth-most fantasy points to power forwards this season. DeAndre Jordan is a fine option, but his upside doesn’t come out too often.
-What has gotten into JJ Redick lately? Oh yeah, he’s from Duke…so he’s automatically a great basketball player. Redick has put up at least 29 FDP in his last three games. Suck it, Duke haters!