Welcome back to another week of Daily Fantasy Football action. It’s Week 9 and we are over the midway hump of the NFL season. At this point, we pretty much know who each team is and what they are about. Offenses that may have started slowly are beginning to gel- I’d put Aaron Rodgers in that category right now. We also see some offenses getting exposed a bit- the Vikings and Jaguars are on that list. Week 8 was another great one for the DFS Army team. Our projections loved J.J. Nelson and we also followed some late breaking line movements which got us all over the Carr-Cooper-Crabtree nuts stack. You can check out some of the big wins from this past week and some notes on the week in our “Winners and Losers” look back on Week 8. I’ve talked a lot about line movements here in the column this season. I’ve never seen the topic covered in depth with regards to DFS anywhere else but I must say that it’s officially a “thing” for me. I’ll cover that more in depth again today.
CAPITULATION
When I used to trade stocks for a living we had a term called: capitulation. Here’s how it was used- Normally when a stock (or the entire market) starts going down you have a reasonable mix of buyers and sellers. Some owners of the stock refuse to believe the move is real. They may buy more as the stock falls thinking they are getting a bargain. They may do it with the hopes of reducing their average cost, hoping the stock will rebound. This is just part and parcel of the ebbs and flows of the market. Eventually, as the stock (or market) continues to crumble we get a phenomenon called capitulation. That’s when even the most stubborn holdouts finally give up. The bottom drops out and you get a massive downside move. People, even the most stubborn, are finally giving up on the stock. The interesting thing is there are always vultures ready to swoop in and buy off the capitulation tumble. In terms of season-long fantasy, capitulation is when the DeAndre Hopkins owner finally gives up and starts begging for just about anyone in a trade. In DFS, it’s when we realize we need to stop rostering Brock Osweiller in the hopes that he will be a sneaky punt play with upside that no one will be on that week. By Week 9 we are starting to understand that certain under-performing players haven’t just been unlucky with tough match-ups. They are legitimately off and should be avoided in DFS completely until they show signs of life. I’m looking at you – Wilson to Baldwin stack.
So what players, teams, or stacks are you finally ready to capitulate on? If you are reading this from the Reddit thread, hit us up with some of your capitulations in the comments section below the article link. DFS Army VIPs hit me up in my slack channel with the combos you are finally capitulating on and why.
Line Movement
This is really the first season in which I’ve been following line movements closely. It’s interesting because the entire premise of this column from Day 1 has been to trust in the line-makers. There is a ton of money on the line each week for the Vegas books and it’s critical that they get the numbers right on a week-to-week basis. What happens when they get it wrong? That’s when sharp bettors come in and grab up all the action and we get line movement. This week there were two games in which the lines moved significantly late in the week. In the Oakland vs. Tampa game, there was a point on Sunday the line had shifted two points in Oakland’s favor. The other game with significant movement was Viking at Bears; that one started out as Vikings -6 and ended up at Vikings -4. I’ll cover both of these games here and detail how listening to what the line movement was telling us helped me in one of these circumstances, and ignoring the movement hurt me in the other.
Oakland @ Tampa
In our DFS Army team slack channel we have been following line movements closely. On Sunday morning noticed that the line had shifted two points in favor of Oakland. The Raiders went from one-point road dogs to one-point road favorites. That may seem slight, but as I’ve noticed, a two-point shift in the lines is actually very significant. We discussed how to play the line movement. Here is the exchange:
Loading up on Carr-Cooper-Crabtree stack was the key success this week. The way the salaries came together in those lineups took our roster construction away from the landmines (Hilton, Julio) and put us on some plays that didn’t blow up. That stack made all the difference for me this week and it was not one of my highest owned stacks before the line movement happened. You may be thinking that Carr-Cooper was an obvious one and the line movement was just a coincidence. The fact that Carr was just 6% owned in my Draftkings GPPs tells me otherwise.
Minnesota @ Chicago
When I wrote the column last Wednesday the Vikings were 6 point road favorites. By game-time, that line had moved two points in the Bears direction. We discussed it in slack as well. I couldn’t get past my cognitive bias on this one. I had it in my head that the Vikings were going to slaughter the Bears and no amount of line movement was going to sway me. I even made an excuse that “maybe the oddsmakers didn’t know if Cutler would play” when they released the lines earlier in the week. Obviously, that was a bad decision. I didn’t even consider using Bears Defense or Jordan Howard in my primetime slate lineups even though we were debating ways to find uniqueness in the large GPP’s on Draftkings. This was a situation where ignoring the line movement once again cost me big time.
Week 9 Lesson: Never ignore late week line movements, especially when they seem counter-intuitive.
SPECIAL CONTEST!
We’ve set up an really cool tournament for our readers only with the good folks at Fantasy Draft for week 9. This is a DFS Army reader exclusive contest limited to 200 entrants. I expect this contest to fill fast so get in there ASAP! It’s a standard $2 entry GPP which pays out the top 25% of finishers. Here’s where it gets cool. We’ve added some awesome prizes for the top 5 finishers on top of the normal cash payouts.
1st place – An autographed NFL Helmet from your choice of T.Y. Hilton or Andy Dalton
2nd place – DFS Army T-Shirt and Hat Swag Bag
3rd – DFS Army T-shirt, 4th-5th – Fantasy Draft T-Shirt
DFS Army Exclusive Week 9 Swag Tournament
DFS Army VIP Membership
If you are looking for a place where you can jump in for 5 or 10 minutes, have someone feed you lineups, and then go on with your day, I suggest you look elsewhere. That’s not what we are about. The DFS Army team is all about sharing research and teaching our members the fundamentals of lineup construction and bankroll management. Our projections and spreadsheets, alongside our multi-entry optimization tool provide our members with all the tools and information the “Pros” use to succeed regardless of the size or style player you are. We cover just about every DFS sport with experts in that sport assigned to channels in our team slack forums. We encourage all of our VIP’s to contribute ideas and insights as equal members of our team. If this sounds like a good fit we’d love to have you on board.
I’ve set up a code to lock in at 20% off our normal monthly rate of $20 for readers of this column – go to DFS Army VIP Membership and use code: GEEK to lock in the discount.
Vegas Lines Week 9 Breakdown
Thursday Night
Atlanta -3.5 At Tampa Bay 51.5
The Thursday night game brings us one of the highest totals of the week as the Falcons take on the Bucs in Tampa. Atlanta comes in as 3.5-point road favorites in this division matchup. Looking at this line, I’m checking off a bunch of boxes. One of the situations I look for when interpreting the lines is the home-dog offense in a high total game. The line on this one is screaming for some shares of Jameis Winston.
The Falcons come in as one of the hottest offenses in the league. Matt Ryan has brought it this season with a 15-point floor and a ceiling in the high 30s. Vegas is expecting a shootout here and I’m comfortable stacking both sides of this game. It looks like Coleman will be out again and we should see workhorse opportunities for DeVonta Freeman, who is one of the top RB plays of the slate. Last week Julio Jones came out of the game early with a leg bruise and came back as a decoy. The Atlanta coaching staff is saying he’s fine, but there is some risk in paying up for the highest salary WR on the slate when he looked so gimpy in last week’s game. Assuming Julio is fully healthy, this is as good of a spot as can be. In Julio’s partial absence we finally had a Mohamed Sanu sighting; he put up 24 points on the strength of nine receptions on 10 targets. His previous high in targets was five this season. Obviously, they made an effort to go away from Julio. Last week TE Jacob Tamme went down as well and he will not be back for this one. Austin Hooper stepped in as the replacement and caught all five of his targets. Hooper is priced at min salary this week and has already been named the starter. He makes for an interesting low ownership dart throw in a game that should be high scoring.
The Bucs are in an interesting spot as well. Last week Jacquizz Rodgers went down with an injury late in the game, so Antoine Smith stepped in at RB and saw the majority of the reps. Peyton Barber, another RB on the roster, also saw some snaps at the position. One of these guys should end up as a nice value play. I’m leaning toward Smith based on the reps from last week. Evans was the highest owned WR on the slate during Week 8. He proceeded to disappoint with an anemic four-reception 11 PPR point day. The good news? He still saw double-digit targets and the Bucs lack playmakers outside of Evans. Winston simply had a rough game and we will see if he can turn it around on Thursday.
Elite Plays: Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman, Jameis Winston, Mike Evans
Sunday Slate
at Kansas City -9 Jacksonville 45.5
Chalk Defense Alert! That’s the best I can do on this game. The Jags have looked awful at home on offense going against bad defensive teams, so I’m certainly not excited about using any of them on the road facing a top defense. The Chiefs are huge nine-point home favorites in a game that Vegas predicts a middling total. Don’t let the 45.5-point game total fool you into thinking the Jags offense is viable here since their team total is a measly 18.25 points.
Keeping this game fairly simple, the Chiefs defense stacked with Charcandrick West is the obvious elite combo. Andy Reid has shown throughout his coaching career that he’ll stick with the run when it’s working or he has a lead. Obviously, the West play is contingent on Spencer Ware remaining sidelined with the concussion. Stay tuned to any reports out of KC on that front.
Elite Plays: Chiefs D, Char West
at Minnesota -6 Detroit 41
The Vikings will try to bounce back from the ass-whopping they took at the hands of Jordan Howard and the Bears on Monday Night Football. Minnesota is heavily favored in a game Vegas expects will be low-scoring.
Last week the Vikings defense was exposed as being a bit overrated, particularly, when Shariff Floyd is out of the lineup. More importantly, the Vikings have been nothing more than mediocre on offense these past few weeks. It makes sense because they don’t have many playmakers that scare anyone. Matt Asiata is Jag City at RB. Stefon Diggs has some talent but he isn’t the type of player that can carry a team. If the Lions are going to be competitive or even justify the six-point favorite designation, it will be due to their defense.
The Lions are coming off a rough loss at the hands of the mediocre Texans. The lone bright spot was Theo Riddick, who is almost matchup-proof in this offense because he is utilized often in the passing game. Last week’s line of 11 targets and eight receptions is like a PPR RB wet dream! He only saw 11 carries in a game in which the Lions were playing catch-up for most of the time. Riddick should remain low owned in a week with several elite spots for RBs. The best part of the Vikings defense has been Xavier Rhodes, who has been locking down elite WRs all season. I expect him to shut down Marvin Jones Jr. in this one. Golden Tate’s situation is a bit more favorable, however- he has seen 10+ targets in three straight games and I expect the Rhodes on MJJ situation to funnel more looks towards Tate.
Elite Plays: Stefon Diggs, Matt Asiata, Theo Riddick, Golden Tate, Vikings D
at NY Giants -2.5 Philadelphia 43
In another division rivalry, the Giants are slight home favorites taking on the Eagles in a game Vegas expects will be close and low scoring. The Eagles are coming off a tough division loss to the Cowboys while the Giants are well rested off their bye week.
There isn’t a whole lot to like about this game on paper. Division teams generally play each other tough, so the only player I’d consider on the Giants in this spot is Odell Beckham Jr. for the contrarian low-ownership stud play.
The Eagles are in a slightly better spot offensively, since the Giants have been so basic on defense to start the season. The big news from last week is that it appears Darren Sproles has supplanted Ryan Matthews as the primary RB for the Eagles. I expect we will still see Matthews in there on some goal line situations, but Sproles carries the upside at cheap salary levels. Another interesting player is Dorial Green-Beckham; the other Beckham, as I like to call him, saw 9 targets last week and continues to be more and more involved in the Eagles passing attack. He is priced at min salary on DraftKings and carries some sneaky sleeper appeal. The primary target for the Eagles last week was Jordan Matthews. He wound up with a nice total mostly based on target volume.
Elite Plays: Darren Sproles
Dallas -7.5 At Cleveland 47
All Aboard the Zeke Train! The Cowboys travel to Brownsville as massive road favorites in a game Vegas sees as high scoring. Whenever a home team is this big of an underdog we need to take note of the situation. The Vegas expectation here is that the Cowboys will come in and run all over the horrific Cleveland run defense, and their entire defensive unit is ranked at the bottom of virtually every category. The Cowboys, on the other hand, have been tough on the run but vulnerable to the pass.
This is a sneaky spot all around for both teams. The obvious play on Dallas is Zeke Elliott. If Cleveland somehow makes a game of this, I could see Dez Bryant being a factor for Dallas as well. With Zeke and Dez as the stud duo, there is no need to consider secondary players like Cole Beasley and Jason Witten anymore. I think of Dez like a shiny new toy for Dak Prescott. Last week he proved that he is recovered from his injury. All aboard!
While the Browns offense makes for a sneaky play at home in this spot, I’m tempering expectations because I think the Cowboys will be able to play ball control with Zeke and limit the total number of possessions and plays for the Browns.
Elite Plays: Zeke Elliott
Miami -3.5 NY Jets 44.5
The Jets travel to Miami as slight underdogs in a game Vegas sees as close and low-scoring.
In season long fantasy football there’s nothing worse than having an under-performing stud stinking up your roster. Here’s what happens: You took the player high in the draft. You roll him out week after week (I’m looking at you DeAndre Hopkins) thinking this is going to be the week that he finally goes off. It’s a vicious cycle that generally sinks your season. That’s what the Jets have in Darelle Revis right now. Revis is in full-blown IDGAF mode for the Jets; he gots paid and he no longer seems to care. Last week he was quoted talking about how his body is giving up on him. He got torched by Terrelle Pryor Sr. on both short slants and deep passes. In the good old days, only the most precise route runners could beat Revis, but now it’s pretty much everyone that does it now. This week I expect Devante Parker to face off with Revis and won’t be surprised if he takes one to the house as well. That said, there’s a possibility it will actually be Kenny Stills torching Revis deep this week. It’s tough to tell. People are going to want to get on board the Jay Ajayi train after his back to back 200+ yard performances; now we can grab him as a home favorite. The Jets may be a punching bag, but their run defense remains solid. The salary for Ajayi has jumped up to stud levels. He is usable in this spot at home but temper your expectations. Finally, we have to consider the Miami defense here. They haven’t been great this season but they did shut down the Steelers a few weeks back. Also, the Jets have been one of the most generous teams when it comes to opposing defense scoring, particularly, on the road.
I’m not a big fan of using the Jets offensive players on the road. Last week Quincy Enunwa and Matt Forte both had solid days but that was against the Browns worst in the league defense. Miami is a little better than the Browns. Enunwa or bust.
Elite Plays: Miami Defense
Baltimore PK Pittsburgh 43
Will he or won’t he? That’s the question. Right now, it looks like Big Ben may actually be back for this one as the Steelers take on their division foes in Baltimore. The Ravens are slight favorites here in a game Vegas sees as close and low scoring. It will be interesting to see if and how the lines move on this one after we get some clarity on the Roethlisberger situation.
The Ravens offense has been difficult to get a handle on this season. Terrance West appears to be the lead back and, based on the line of a close and low-scoring game, one would think that this game script sets up well for him. At WR it may be time to start paying attention to Mike Wallace; he hasn’t seen less than 10 targets in a game since Steve Smith went down to injury. Wallace has not been particularly efficient with those targets but I’m a sucker for opportunities.
I really can’t say that much about the Steelers without knowing the status of Ben Roethlisberger. If he doesn’t play, I’ll be interested in Ravens defense. If Ben is in there, Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown become somewhat elite plays. The Ravens statistically, are more vulnerable to the pass then the rush, but no one can stop Bell when Roethlisberger is under center.
Elite Plays: LeVeon Bell
Secondary: Terrance West, Mike Wallace
New Orleans -3 at San Francisco 52
Chalk Alert! It’s not the top option, that’s coming up soon, but you can’t ignore the 52-point total. The Saints travel to Santa Clara to take on the 49ers as three-point road favorites. This is an “all hands on deck” situation! One of my Vegas Lines rules of thumb involves favoring home dogs in close and high-scoring games. This line meets the bill perfectly.
Let’s start with the 49ers. I’m assuming Carlos Hyde will be back for this game; he makes for an elite play taking on a non-existent Saints defense. Colin Kaepernick has lived up to the Krap moniker so far this season; in two starts he hasn’t even been able to complete 50% of his pass attempts and he’s certainly failed the eyeball test. Kap’s value has come from his scrambling ability, averaging eight rushes for 70 yards. It doesn’t take much for a QB to make value when they run for 50+ yards per game. It helps that his salary one of the lowest on the board. If you need to stack him with someone, hold your nose and stack with Torrey Smith, who runs one pattern over and over- deep. Kap has the arm to hit Smith with a deep ball or two.
For the Saints, this is also an “all hands on deck” situation. You never know which of their WRs will be featured as they spread the ball around evenly. That basically renders the entire offense as Hybrid/GPP only for me. Brees, on the other hand, is a safe cash play. Since I have no way of figuring out which of Brandon Cooks, Willie Snead or Michael Thomas is the better receiver this week, I’m not going to focus on a messy situation to avoid. For some reason, Coby Fleener snap share has been going down in recent weeks and last week it was down to 34%. He was still targeted four times but this feels like a risky situation. In addition, Mark Ingram got benched last week after a fumble and was replaced by Tim Hightower. That could be a one-off, and our projections love Ingram here, but I’m not as confident. The usage risk renders Ingram GPP only for me on a week where there are plenty of alternatives.
Elite Plays: Drew Brees, Carlos Hyde
Secondary: Saints WR’s, Collin Kaepernick
Carolina -3 at Los Angeles 45
The Panthers travel to L.A. as slight favorites to take on the Rams in a game that Vegas sees as close with a middling total score. Last week the Panthers put on a show against a very tough Arizona defense. This situation is a little different being a road game but the Rams aren’t nearly as good of a defense as the Cardinals.
For the Panthers, Cam Newton is a stud and has the potential to go off for 30+ points on any given week. The Rams have been very tough at defending the run this season, but they are much more vulnerable to the pass. I think last week’s game plan, which included 25 carries for Jonathan Stewart, probably won’t be repeated. According to FootballOutsiders.com DVOA rankings, the Rams have been slightly above average at stopping the opposing WR1 and TE. This isn’t a particularly great matchup for Kelvin Benjamin or Greg Olsen. That said, it isn’t particularly scary for them either.
Our projections love the Rams pass catchers this week. Kenny Britt is showing up as a value play on our optimization tool as well; the last time that happened, Britt went off for 30+ fantasy points. The Panthers have been a classic funnel defense to start the season, stopping the run while being vulnerable to the pass. They have been particularly torched by the enemy’s WR1.
Elite Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Cam Newton, Kelvin Benjamin, Greg Olsen, Kenny Britt
At Green Bay -7 Indianapolis 54
Chalk Alert! This is the big one folks. Stack it up, stack it in, let me begin, I came to win, battle me? It’s a sin. I have a feeling you can focus exclusively on this game this week and put up some quality DFS scores. The Colts head over to the chilly tundra as seven-point dogs to take on the Packers in a game with one of the highest expected totals of the season. Rodgers has been on fire ever since Lacy got hurt, while Luck has also been solid with a very high floor so far this season.
Let’s start with the Colts. They take on a Green Bay defensive unit that has played better at home than on the road. The Packers have been particularly adept at stopping the run this season. That’s cool because I want Luck passing early and often. Last week we saw two significant developments for the Colts. The return of Moncrief was positive. He played well and got to shake off some of those cobwebs. We also saw T.Y. Hilton tweak his hammy, come out of the game and return as a non-factor. It was encouraging that he returned to the game, but he might as well have just taken his gear off. Assuming Hilton is completely healthy, he makes for an elite play facing a depleted Green Bay secondary. Donte Moncrief and Jack Doyle are also in excellent spots in a game where I expect Luck to put up close to 40 passing attempts.
The Packers are in a great spot at home facing a Colts defense that may be without their one and only elite player, Vontae Davis. He is in the concussion protocol and his status for this weekend is in doubt. If he did suit up, I’d expect him to blanket Jordy Nelson in this one. We have two additional question marks on the Packers- Ty Montgomery is dealing with a kidney issue and Randal Cobb is dealing with a hammy. Both Cobb and Montgomery have excelled in the new “no RB” offense the Packers are running. We need to stay on top of injury reports because if either Cobb or Ty is out, the other becomes an ALL IN lock. Regardless, with Rodgers lofting up 45+ passes per game there is enough volume here to support two or three of these guys in cash and GPP lineups.
Elite Plays: Aaron Rodgers, Ty Montgomery, Jordy Nelson, Randal Cobb, Davante Adams, Andrew Luck, Donte Moncrief, T.Y. Hilton
At San Diego -5 Tennessee 47
The Chargers are at home in a prime spot as five-point favorites taking on Marcus Mariota and the Titans in a game Vegas sees as fairly high scoring. The Titans have have been a funnel-type defense, stopping the run while being vulnerable to the pass. The Chargers have actually been above average across the board defensively.
This is a nice spot for Rivers & Co. One important factor will be trying to figure out the health status of the Chargers pass catchers. Right now Travis Benjamin and Terrell Williams are not practicing. Benjamin’s knee issue seems to be the worst of the two, but I believe he’s been playing through it for a couple of weeks. The most reliable option on the Chargers is Melvin Gordon. Even though the Titans have stopped the run, Gordon’s use in the passing game makes him somewhat matchup-proof.
The Chargers have been a solid defense excelling in all facets. I’d consider Delanie Walker and Demarco Murray this week, simply because that entire Titans offense runs through these two players.
Elite Plays: Melvin Gordon
Sunday Night
At Oakland -1 Denver 44
The Broncos travel to Oakland as slight underdogs in a game Vegas sees as close and low-scoring. We had a ton of success rolling out the Carr to Cooper stacks last week. This week? Not so much. Denver brings a suffocating defense to the table. It’s generally not a great idea to go against them. The Broncos, on the other hand, have not looked great offensively in recent weeks. They take on an exploitable Raiders team that has not been able to stop anyone defensively. The issue here is the decline of Semian. Outside of one great game he has looked awful. Even worse is that fact that he appears to be regressing. Semian has multiple sub 14 point games this season. Bad QB play generally leads to mediocre results for pass catchers as well. DT and Sanders have not been worth the high salaries that the sites have slapped on them. The only player I trust in this game is Devontae Booker. He should see a full workload in a run heavy offense. Hopefully, he got the jitters out of the way last week and is set to put up a nice performance sans the goal line fumbles.
Elite Plays: Booker
Monday Night Football Line
11/7 8:30 ET At Seattle -7 Buffalo 44
In the final game of the slate we get the Bills on the road as heavy underdogs in a game that Vegas sees as low-scoring. There isn’t much to like here on the Buffalo side of the ball. Seattle is a shutdown defense at home.
The Seahawks are not an offense that I’m interested in this week. Wilson seems off and his scrambling ability appears compromised by a leg injury that may be worse than what he’s saying. It’s tough to trust any of the Seattle pass catchers right now. Christine Michael is getting most of the carries for Seattle right now and they have also been bringing in C.J. Prosise as the passing-down back for the most part which has limited Michael’s ceiling. Assuming you want to use Seattle defense in your lineup, the type of dominating defensive performance game script sets up well for a stack with Michael.
Elite Plays: Seattle Defense, Christine Michael
That’s it for the week 9 slate. Good luck this weekend!
Week 9 DFS Army NFL Content
Geek’s Vegas Lines Week 9 DFS Football Strategy & Game Breakdown
DFS Army Week 9 NFL Vegas Lines Podcast
DFS Army Week 9 NFL Projections/Stats Spreadsheet
DFS Army Domination Station NFL Lineup Optimizer
DFS Army Week 9 NFL Kickers Corner