Welcome to Week 11 of the Daily Fantasy Football season! This time around I’ll be prognosticating on a plethora of potentially plentiful fantasy points bonanzas. What I mean is that there are a bunch of awesome matchups to target, including a game where a team is projected by Vegas to score 32.25 points- that’s the highest projection I can recall seeing… ever. You’ll have to read on to find out more about that one.
Last week went how we thought it would with the focus being on some of the higher priced RBs while saving salary by targeting some high upside, lower priced WRs. This week is shaping up in a similar way. Le’Veon Bell’s matchup is so great that he should be considered a must play in all formats this week. Another interesting situation is the Rob Gronkowski injury. If he sits this game out, the secondary New England weapons get a boost. Martellus Bennett will be elevated to must play status as well. We are going to break down all the games as always and try to find some areas where we can save a few bucks and afford to stack up on some of the very juicy 50+ point projected games on the Week 11 slate.
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WEEK 11 VEGAS LINES BREAKDOWNS
11/17 8:25 ET At Carolina -3.5 New Orleans 52
Week 11 starts with a bang as the Saints take on their division rivals in a game that Vegas sees as close and high scoring. This is not the type of Thursday game that is usually wise to fade. Quite the opposite, in fact. This is a game to stack up on both sides of the ball.
I don’t know what more you can ask for as far as a game to stack up on. Looking at the Panthers, we have Cam Newton, Kelvin Benjamin, Greg Olsen and Jonathan Stewart as the most relevant pieces of the puzzle. The Saints are bad pretty much everywhere defensively. Looking closer at some DVOA numbers, the Saints have actually been OK at limiting the opposing WR1 while they have been exceptionally bad at stopping enemy TEs, ranking 6th and 28th respectively. That tells me that on paper, in cash lineups, we should favor stacking Cam with Olsen as opposed to Benjamin. Stewart is also in play facing the Saints 25th ranked run-stopping unit; he is risky/TD dependent with a QB that will often vulture TDs, so keep that in mind.
The Saints face a Carolina defense that has been successful against the run and not so much vs the pass. I expect Brees & Co. to use an aerial assault to keep up in this game. It’s impossible to predict which Saints pass catchers will be featured on a weekly basis, however, this game should have enough goodness to support more than one of these guys. Michael Thomas has been remarkably consistent outside of last week’s dud and he should be a popular play this week. Brandin Cooks is also in play, mainly because the Panthers don’t have the type of top flight CB that can slow down a player like him. Willie Snead is coming off a big tw0 TD performance but he has been the least reliable of the Saints pass catchers this season. At TE, Coby Fleener is a hit-or-miss player that has been sharing reps with Josh Hill. Fleener is the ultimate hit or miss TE with two games of 20+ DK points and eight with less than 10.
Elite Plays: Cam Newton, Greg Olsen, Drew Brees, Kelvin Benjamin, Brandin Cooks, Michael Thomas
Secondary Plays: Willie Snead, Coby Fleener, Jonathan Stewart
Sunday Slate
At Indianapolis -3 Tennessee 53
The good times continue with another juicy matchup, as this one pits the red-hot Titans offense against the stone-cold Colts defense. The Titans are slight road dogs here in a game projected to be close and high scoring.
Fire up Delanie Walker against the Colts, who rank 31st in the NFL against TEs. It kind of sucks that Walker beasted last week because it feels like chasing points here. That said, this is as good of a spot as Walker will see all season. Demarco Murray is also in play against a Colts run defense that is equally as bad as their TE defense, sporting a 31st overall ranking. The WR corps for the Titans is less predictable and less likely to have monster games. Rishard Matthews seems to be the top guy. If Vonta Davis plays in this game I would expect him to blanket Matthews, forcing targets to Kendal Wright. Both of these guys are very much hit-or-miss players.
The Colts are coming off their bye week and should be well rested. The Titans defense hasn’t been particularly good this season but they are better vs the run (13th ranked) then the pass (23rd ranked). T.Y. Hilton had some hammy issues going into the bye and I expect that he will be close to 100% at this point. Hilton has historically been a much better home than road player and he is in line for a big week. Donte Moncrief had been one of my favorite players to roster on a week-to-week basis when his salary was low. The mean algorithm people at DraftKings have jacked him up $6100 this week! That means he needs to deliver at least 24 fantasy points to his GPP value. Considering Moncrief hasn’t topped 20 points this season, I’m not sure it’s realistic to expect it to happen this week. I’ve been as big of a Frank Gore hater as there is but you can’t deny what he’s done this season. Gore is seeing a consistent 20 touches per game and even seeing passing down work. I’m jumping on board the train so chances are it may derail. Sorry guys.
Elite Plays: Marcus Mariota, Delanie Walker, Demarco Murray, Andrew Luck, T.Y. Hilton, Frank Gore
At Detroit -6.5 Jacksonville 47
The Jaguars travel to Detroit as heavy underdogs in a game Vegas sees as high scoring. The Lions continue to sport one of the worst pass defenses in the league currently ranked as the second-worst unit overall. The Jaguars have been middling (13th ranked) vs the pass and awful (27th) vs the run.
This is a good spot for the Lions at home facing a bad team. Considering the Jag’s awful run defense, we can look at Theo Riddick and Dwayne Washington as potential beneficiaries. Let’s be clear on this- Washington hasn’t done a thing this season. He comes in to spell Riddick as the “big back” for the Lions but he’s the clear #2. Riddick is much more interesting here, particularly in PPR formats. At WR, Golden Tate appears to have supplanted Marvin Jones Jr as the top target in the Lions offense. Tate is averaging 10 targets per game over the last five while Jones has only averaged six. Tate remains relatively cheap on DFS sites and can be considered a value play.
Looking at the Jags, it’s all about Bortles to Robinson in garbage time. That’s where they’ve done their damage this season. It’s a great matchup for the Jags passing game on paper but it’s hard to trust Bortles at this point.
Elite Plays: Theo Riddick, Allen Robinson, Golden Tate
At Kansas City -7.5 Tampa Bay 44.5
The Bucs travel to KC as heavy underdogs in a game that Vegas expects to be low scoring.
In a week with so much fantasy goodness floating around, there is no reason to look too heavily at this game. Tampa’s run defense (10th overall) is pretty good, which is why I’m going to limit my exposure to Spencer Ware. I love the Chiefs defense here in a solid spot facing a Bucs team that has been generous to opposing fantasy defenses on the road.
Elite Plays: Chiefs D
At NY Giants -7 Chicago 45.5
The Bears travel to East Rutherford as heavy underdogs to face the Giants in a game that is expected to be low scoring.
This is another game to avoid for the most part. The Bears suck and they will be without Alshon Jeffrey for the next four games. Cameron Meredith is in line for a massive increase in targets and makes for an interesting value play. The problem is we never know which version of Cutler we will see. More often than not, it’s the IDGAF version that would rather be at home canoodling with his super-hot wife, Kristin Cavallari. I can’t say that I blame him for that.
For the Giants, Odell Beckham Jr is always in play at home. This week he makes for more of a contrarian play simply because the focus should and will be on some other games with much higher totals. I’m more interested in Giants defense here- they looked great last week stopping Andy Dalton and it looks like all the money the Giants spent this offseason patching up the defense and it is finally paying dividends. Oftentimes, it takes half a season for new players to gel together; that may be happening now for the Giants. I’m hopping on the train a week early.
Elite Plays: Giants Defense, Odell Beckham Jr
Value Plays: Cameron Meredith, Eddie Royal
At Minnesota PK Arizona 41
In a defensive stinkfest, the Cardinals head to Minnesota in a pick em’ game with a very low total so both defenses are in play here. I’m hearing that Patrick Peterson will shadow Stefon Diggs in this one. That’s a rough match-up. This game is a complete fade for me.
At Cincinnati -3 Buffalo 47
The Bills travel to Cincinnati as slight dogs in a game with a total on the high side for the slate. Both of these teams have been garbage defensively, ranking in the high 20s across the board.
Looking at the Bengals, the addition of Tyler Eifert has rounded out their offense a bit, to the detriment of A.J. Green. The Bills have been equally bad vs TEs and the WR1 so it’s anyone’s guess who will benefit the most in this matchup. I’m leaning Eif-HURT simply because he’s the cheaper salary player. I don’t trust either of the runners for the Bengals here or pretty much ever.
For the Bills, the offense seems to have steeled as Robert Woods as the top WR option. He’s coming off a 13-target game and hasn’t been below six targets since Week 3. LeSean McCoy should be fully healthy coming off the bye week for the Bills and remains an every week plug-and-play stud.
Elite Plays: Tyler Eifert, Robert Woods, LeSean McCoy
At Dallas -7 Baltimore 45
The Ravens pack up their #1 ranked rush defense and travel to Trump country as seven-point dogs to take on the Cowboys and their #1 ranked rushing offense. Something has got to give here. Realistically, the low total and clash of top run D vs top rushing O makes this game seem like a fantasy turd.
Baltimore’s weakest area defensively is vs #1 WRs ranking 27th overall in DVOA- that sets up well for Dez Bryant at home. Assuming the Ravens can limit Zeke Elliott, the Cowboys should be forced to shift to an aerial assault. Don’t bother rostering Jason Witten here (not that I ever do), the Ravens are #1 vs TEs this season.
If for some reason you feel like you need a piece of the Ravens offense and their projected total of 19 points this week, I’d consider Steve Smith. Smitty is the most targeted WR on the Ravens and he’s getting healthier each week.
Elite Plays: Dez Bryant
Pittsburgh -8.5 At Cleveland 49
Now this is a game that I can get down with. The Steelers hit the road to take on their division rivals as huge road favorites in a game with a high team total, and only the Patriots are projected to score more than the Steelers this week.
We already know about the Browns- they are terrible in all facets of defense. The Killa Bee’s – Ben, Brown and Bell are all in play. I consider Le’Veon Bell to be a must-play in all types of lineups. The other Steeler to consider is Eli Rodgers; for now, it appears that Rodgers has a lockdown on the WR2 spot for the Steelers averaging 7.5 targets per game over the past two. Sammie Coates is a non-factor at this point and should be ignored.
I expect the Browns to be in catch-up mode throughout. Their pass catchers, Terrelle Pryor and Corey Coleman – should get plenty of looks. The Steelers rank 20th and 14th respectively vs the pass and run, and that was before they lost DT Cameron Heyward for the season. The loss of Heyward should loosen things up a smidge and give an opening to the Cleveland offense to do some damage at home. The salary for Pryor has been dropping in recent weeks and is now a reasonable $5600 on DraftKings. That’s the type of value I look for in a player with a decent 12+ point floor and sky-high ceiling. If you are desperate for a punt play I suppose Isiah Crowell is worth a consideration. The opportunities have been there for “The Crow” in recent weeks but tough matchups and negative game scripts have been holding him back.
Elite Plays: Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Leveon Bell, Terrell Pryor
At Los Angeles -1 Miami 40.5
This looks like an ugly one. The Dolphins travel to L.A. as slight dogs in a low-scoring defensive matchup. Last week the Rams faced the Jets and the result was a fantasy shitstorm. As a Jets fan, I was forced to watch it. Not fun. I refuse to get caught in another shitstorm without an umbrella. I’m passing on this one completely.
New England -13 At San Francisco 51.5
I don’t have all the historical data available but it’s possible the Patriots 32.25-point projection is the highest in NFL history; it’s certainly the highest of this season. Those of you that read this column regularly, or listen to my podcasts, know I’ll advise people to – “not to get cute” with their lineups. Last week the Patriots got cute at the end of the game and it cost them a home loss. They are going to be angry this week and I fully expect them to throw a massive whooping on the 49ers.
Looking at the 49ers, they have actually played well on offense in recent weeks. Colin Kaepernick is a good fit in Chip Kelly’s offense and he has been making up for his lack of accuracy and low completion percentages with a solid dose of the run. His primary target has been Quinton Patton; he’s had two consecutive weeks with nine targets, that’s a lot for a player going at minimum salary across the DFS landscape. Patton is a sleeper this week and going forward. Eventually, he will turn those targets into a big fantasy day. That could happen this week for all we know. Last week also featured the return of Carlos “Danger” Hyde. Danger got an encouraging 14 carries in his first game back from injury. The matchup at Arizona was tough and he didn’t do much, but this is a different situation. The Patriots showed some vulnerability to the run last week and Hyde should be fine here. His salary has dropped significantly due to the recent injury and has fallen to “value play” levels.
For the Patriots, this is an “all hands on deck” situation. Tom Brady is going to be tossing tuddies left and right to start this one off. I expect they will finish it off with a heavy dose of LeGarrette Blount. Outside of Brady, the Patriots offense is a bit tricky to figure out on a week-to-week basis. Julian Edelman remains the primary “chain-mover” and Rob Gronkowski is the primary red zone target. Last week it was Martellus Bennett that shined at the TE spot for the Patriots. WRs – Danny Amendola, Chris Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell all play bit roles in this offense. Last week Hogan was limited with a back issue, and his snap share was down significantly as compared to previous weeks. He was more of a GPP shot in the dark when healthy anyway. Early this week we heard reports that Gronk had a punctured lung. Now they are saying it’s a chest bruise. If Gronk sits for whatever reason, Martellus Bennett becomes a value lock at the TE spot.
Elite Plays: Tom Brady, LeGarrette Blount, Martellus Bennett, Julian Edelman, Carlos “Danger” Hyde
At Seattle -6.5 Philadelphia 45
The Eagles travel to Seattle as heavy underdogs to take on the Seahawks in a game with one of the lower totals on this slate. The Eagles sport the #1 overall defense this season while the Seahawks are ranked 6th.
Do we really want to get involved in a game where both teams sport top-ranked defenses?
One item of note. The Seahawks released Christine Michael this week, which means the return of Thomas Rawls could happen. It also could be a signal that C.J. Prosise is someone they have confidence in. Either way, they have a tough matchup facing a top-notch Eagles run defense.
This game is a complete fade outside of potentially taking a shot with Seattle defense at home.
8:30 ET At Washington -2.5 Green Bay 50.5
The Sunday Night Hammer game pits the Packers at the Redskins as slight underdogs in a close and high scoring game. I have a feeling this game will live up to the “Hammer” moniker. The only thing of note defensively is the fact that Josh Norman is healthy and will likely be shadowing Jordy Nelson.
This is an excellent matchup for the Redskins pass offense. I’m starting with the assumption that the lines are correct and this game will feature plenty of scoring. DeSean Jackson was out last week with a leg injury and, even if he plays, I wouldn’t go near him; speedsters need healthy legs to produce. The other two relevant WRs are Jae Crowder and Pierre Garcon. Crowder has been more of the big play WR, while Garcon has worked as more of a possession role. Looking at the Packers DvP and DVOA numbers, they have been terrible against opposing WRs and better at stopping TEs; that was until last week when they got torched by Delanie Walker. Jordan Reed is definitely in play for this one. At RB the Redskins have committed to Rob Kelly as their primary back. Chris Thompson comes in on passing downs and tends to get the “check down” work. The Packers actually stop the run well so I would expect this game to be more passing game focused. That brings Cousins squarely into the QB conversation this week.
The Packers offense has been on fire in recent weeks even if it hasn’t come through as much in the win column. Aaron Rodgers is slinging the rock at an astronomical rate averaging 45 targets per game since Eddie Lacy went down. Coming off the loss to the Titans, I’m expecting to see a better effort out of the entire Packers team. As far as matchups go, with the chance Norman is assigned to shadow Jordy, that should open things up for Davonte Adams who has been beasting on a weekly basis with 47 targets over the past four games. Randall Cobb has cooled off a bit since he injured his hammy; he is my least favorite of the Packers pass catchers this week. Looking at the RB spot it’s tough to get a read. Right now, my sense is that James Starks is the primary RB with Ty Montgomery in more of a complimentary role. Montgomery’s salary rose way too fast on DraftKings and he is completely unusable there. Starks, on the other hand, makes for a very interesting value play this week.
Elite Plays: Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, Davonta Adams, James Starks, Kirk Cousins, Jae Crowder, Jordan Reed
Monday Night Football
11/21 8:30 ET Oakland
(At Mexico City) -6 Houston 46
In the slate’s finale, the Raiders are heavy favorites in a game against the Texans that Vegas expects will feature a middling score.
Normally I would fade a game like this. It takes place in Mexico City and who knows what kind of a role Montezuma’s Revenge will play. All jokes aside, if I’m playing the prime time slates, it’ll be the Packers/Redskins game that has more appeal. Still, the 46-point total isn’t too bad so let’s take a look at the numbers.
The Texans have been a top 10 team vs the pass this season while at the bottom in terms of run defense. That puts Latavius Murray squarely in the crosshairs as far as a solid low-cost RB option. Lats had a monster game against Denver last week and I would expect something similar in this spot. On paper, this is a much tougher situation for Derek Carr and his main man Amari Cooper. The Texans sport the #4 overall ranking vs the opposing WR1 and similar vs the WR2.
The Texans face a Raiders defense that appears to be getting better each week. Just like the Giants, the Raiders added some expensive pieces to their defense this past offseason and they seem to be gelling at the right time. At least that’s what it looked like when they dominated the Broncos two weeks ago. Of course, it’s also possible that the Broncos simply suck. Still, the Texans offense sucks just as bad as the Broncos so there’s that. The relevant players here are Lamar Miller and DeAndre Hopkins, even though they have both been disasters this year.
That’s it for week 11. Look out for our “best in the industry” projections, cheat sheet and my player picks later in the week. Good luck to everyone!
Week 11 DFS Army NFL Content
Geek’s Vegas Lines – Week 11 DFS Football Strategy, Player Picks, and Game Breakdown
DFS Army NFL Vegas Lines Week 11 Podcast
The DFS Army Domination Station Lineup Optimizer
DFS Army VIP NFL Stats/Projections Spreadsheet
DFS Army Week 11 NFL Kickers Corner
DFS Army “Point After” NFL Review Preview Week 11
DFS Army VIP Podcast available in the VIP Slack Chat!