If this is your first year in the DFS Army for NFL, then I would like to say welcome. You, however, can call me BoomersDaddy. Or, Keith, or whatever else comes to mind.
I tend to dive into the game theory aspect of each week more than the player picks, spending most of my week comparing salaries between FanDuel and DraftKings looking to see where I can exploit player pricing in GPPs. In order for this to actually be effective, you have to know where the public is going; I monitor Twitter, listen to different podcasts, read articles and take mental/written notes on who is being talked up during the week. I also, go back and forth with Choppodong a lot. Mostly out of entertainment, or because he will say something that I don’t agree with, then keep defending his point to the death just to put me on full blown Monkey Tilt. He enjoys it, and as long as that’s the ONLY thing I’m tilting over, we end up getting a great discussion in Slack that people end up learning from. Hopefully.
There are lessons to be learned from previous weeks that we can use this time round. Hopefully, it will either open your eyes to new ways of seeing the pricing structures or serve as a refresher course in something you might have misplaced amidst the excitement that was Week 1 of the NFL season.
Sit back, grab a pop and enjoy the humor! If we’re lucky, we might have some meaningful information that you can use in order to help you win all the money this weekend and take that special lady to Red Lobster, or to pay your mortgage payment. I promise, I don’t judge.
INTRODUCTION:
There are different ways to read into a player’s salary each week on both FanDuel and DraftKings. They are two completely different sites, with different scoring systems, and as we know, different salary caps. In my opinion, DFS can be split into three different aspects: player picks, bankroll management and game theory. Each has its own level of importance to be a successful and profitable DFS player. If you are playing on both DraftKings and FanDuel, it’s not only important to know which players have the best matchups, but also where you want to play them. The difference in Eli Manning’s price from site-to-site, if drastic enough, can seriously change his ownership percentage in tournaments; this is important to know because you can then determine exactly how you are going to approach him on each site.
The first thing that’s important to understand is HOW the pricing is generated. For Week 1, we had a handful of mispriced players at each position for a variety of different reasons. Dak Prescott was minimum salary because when the salaries were generated, he was the backup to Tony Romo. This will pop up from time-to-time where a player will be injured after the pricing for the upcoming week is released and the backup is not priced for the expected workload. These are things that we should pay attention to, along with role changes, snap counts, targets, etc. All of these things are highlighted each week in the DFS Army through The Geek’s Vegas Line Breakdown and the DFS Army Daily Dispatch VIP NFL Pod with Choppodong and Geek. (Yes, that was a plug!) If these aren’t a part of your weekly research routine, then I’m suggesting you change that ASAP.
Taking advantage of pricing errors is key to having success in NFL DFS. The most obvious difference in the way the two sites price players is a very simple one to notice, if you know what you’re looking for. The main difference is that FanDuel places a greater emphasis on their pricing for previous performances, while DraftKings weighs their pricing based more on a predictive matchup standpoint.
Decisions, Decisions:
I’m a firm believer that there are times to pay up to be different in tournaments. All we have to do is look at the winning lineup from the Milly Maker and notice that Drew Brees, who was the second-highest-priced QB of the week last week on DraftKings, was low owned. Obviously, if we knew that he was going to be the highest scoring QB at that type of ownership, we would have played him in every lineup. Remember, just because they are lower owned, doesn’t mean that they are in a bad spot. All it means is, for whatever reason, they aren’t the popular pick. Knowing these things is what is going to allow us to exploit the salary differences to not only get the best value for our lineups, but also have players in advantageous spots at a mixture of ownership percentages that you should feel comfortable in both your cash and hybrid lineups this week. The decision comes when we have a player that has such a salary difference between the sites; that one might be a popular cash game option and a very low-owned option on the other.
***Each week, we will explore a couple players from Geek’s Player Picks that we should be playing on a specific site.
We have created a spreadsheet to show you the difference’s between salaries from DraftKings to FanDuel. You can grab that here!
Quarterback:
Matthew Stafford: (DK: 7300(8); FD: 7800(12))
Stafford gets the Tennessee Titans this week in the Lions home opener and his salary crept up on FanDuel $400 more compared to only $100 on DraftKings. If we look at our rankings sheet, Stafford is the 8th ranked QB on DraftKings compared to the 12th on FanDuel. Yes, Stafford is going to take a higher percentage of your salary cap on FanDuel, but that’s where I want the most exposure to him this week. This isn’t to say that he’s not playable on DraftKings, but QBs are generally going to take up more of your salary cap and very rarely do we find huge pricing gaps between the two sites to where they aren’t playable on both. An interesting stat with Stafford that I found: In the nine games that Jim Bob Cooter has been the offensive coordinator for the Detroit Lions, Stafford has thrown for 22 TDs and only 2 INTs. That’s Nick Foles type of production right there! Ok, maybe that is a stretch, but my point is that the way this Lions offense runs with Stafford spreading the ball around, we can deploy him in cash, hybrid, and GPP lineups across the industry feeling extremely comfortable that he will pay off his salary. The interesting thing is that I have him as my cash game QB this week, and because of the distribution of targets, I have no problem playing him naked in cash games. If you are going to play him in GPP or hybrid, though, you can pair him with either Marvin Jones Jr., Golden Tate, or Mr. Moneybags, Theo Riddick.
Running Back:
Latavius Murray: (DK: 5700(19); FD: 7100(12))
If you had exposure to Murray in your lineups last week, you came away feeling that you didn’t quite get everything you wanted out of this performance considering the matchup he was in. Have no fear, the Falcons are here! Murray now gets a matchup that allowed 23.7 FDP to Doug Martin and Charles Sims last week. Just like Kevin, you shouldn’t be worried about Jalen Richard getting 84 yards and a TD last week either. Take out the 75-yard TD run, which is fluky as hell, and you have someone that basically just gave Murray a breather. He should be a workhorse again this week in the black hole. His salary on DraftKings went up only $100. We thought he was under-priced last week, and the same can be said again over there this week. He’s in play in all formats there, but on FanDuel, where his price rose $400 I will be limiting him to tournaments only.
Rashad Jennings: (DK: 5600(20); 6300(20))
Jennings was the dominate ball carrier last week against the Cowboys. The reason his price is still very affordable is because he didn’t get in the endzone. He gets the best matchup you could hope for this week with the New Orleans Saints and their so called “defense.” On FanDuel, he’s in play as cheap exposure to what is the highest total of the weekend. He will take up only 9.3% of your salary cap over there compared to 11.2% on DraftKings. Just like Murray on DraftKings, Jennings is in play on FanDuel in all of your lineups. One thing to note, the weather in the New York area is supposed to be getting uglier as the weekend approaches which could lend itself to a better game script for Jennings. I’m limiting him to GPP or hybrid only on DraftKings since he doesn’t really get any targets out of the backfield. I think he pushes the 100-yard mark this week and gets us a touchdown. With the severe splits of Drew Brees away from New Orleans, it isn’t out of the question that Jennings will be getting a lot of work in the 4th quarter to grind out the clock.
Wide Receiver:
Willie Snead: (DK: 5800(32); FD: 7200(17))
“I feel the need…..the need for SNEAD!” – corny Top Gun drop there. Snead was simply amazing last week, catching all nine of his targets for 172 yards and a TD. Judging by the lower ownership in tournaments last week, he was generally overlooked by the public. Even with the massive price jump of $1000 on DraftKings and $800 on FanDuel, he’s in play again this week. Expect the Saints production to take a little bit of a hit with them playing outside on the road, and possibly in bad weather, but Snead is cheap exposure to the highest game total of the weekend. I love him more on DraftKings for cash games for these two reasons: One, he’s still cheap enough to be have a great lineup fit around him, and two, the full point per reception there brings more value to his skill set. I don’t think he’s going over 150 yards again, but that doesn’t mean he can’t blow the top off his value before the fourth quarter. The added benefit of possible JTP (junk time production) rounds out the possibility to have a great foundation at the position in your cash and hybrid lineups this week. Myself though, depending on what the ownership is going to look like, on DraftKings he’s a fade for me in tournaments. After that perfomance, I’m projecting him to be higher owned than I would like. HOWEVER, with players like Randall Cobb, Larry Fitzgerald only a couple hundred more than Snead, and players like Michael Floyd, Julian Edelman, T.Y. Hilton, and Jordan Matthews a little lower in price, I feel like this is a spot where we can get him at a little lower ownership percentage that would make him for a great play in tournaments.
Michael Floyd: (DK: 5900(31); FD: 7000(19))
Floyd’s price didn’t change on DraftKings and only increased by $100 on FanDuel this week. This is something that you will notice all year with players that have played in Sunday or Monday night games. It usually takes two weeks for the sites to react to the games that they played so we can really take advantage of the them if the situation is right. The Patriots took away the deep threat last week which allowed Fitzy and David Johnson to get a lot of work underneath. Floyd only managed 48 yards on three receptions while receiving seven targets. Not great, and by no means is that what we were looking for. However, with it being early in the season and the influx of newer players to DFS, we can take advantage of “game log watchers” and have confidence that he will be low owned again this week in tournaments. Kevin absolutely LOVES Floyd this week as you would here on his VIP Podcast with Choppodong. If you haven’t heard it yet, then I would suggest setting aside some time and getting a pen and paper ready. This is a spot where I really want to play him in a lot of my hybrid and GPP lineups on BOTH sites. The mid-range tier on FanDuel is LOADED, and it’s going to drive down the ownership percentages on every one of these guys. The basis of the Cardinals offense and Carson Palmer is to attack deep. And this is the perfect spot to do that this week against a Buccaneers defense that has to travel across country. Floyd was on the field for 58 of the Cardinals 61 offensive snaps. His pricing gap is just big enough that it wouldn’t be surprising to me at all if he ends up being lower owned on FanDuel. Just like Kevin, I believe the Cardinals get back to their high flying ways and Floyd generally is the beneficiary.
It takes a little exploration to find these types of plays. Not everyone that has a gap in pricing rankings should be favored on one site over the other, but you should definitely take notice of that gap. Our goal here in the DFS Army is to not only help you out with player picks, but to give you the reasoning on WHY we think the way we do. Things to look for and ways to become a better all around player. If you are playing on both FanDuel and DraftKings, then I am a firm believer that you should be adding this step into your process each week. Noticing these little pricing discrepancies will not only help you build better lineups, but also allow you to start to understand the basic thoughts that go into the pricing for players each week.
Until next week Soldiers!