Hopefully, you follow along with this piece I write and catch my personal ebbs and flows through the world of DFS. I try and give you guys everything that passes through this simple mind of mine so you can occasionally take a kernel or two with you. I have no idea which kernels mean anything to you and which don’t. What I do know is my mind works like my dating philosophy used to…..quality through quantity. I tell jokes much the same way. High volume leads to success. After all, if I asked 3 girls to show me their boobs, I’d likely get turned down all three times. Now, if I asked 300 girls to show me their boobs, I guarantee you I’d see some boobies (there is actually a real-life story behind this example with real life numbers…..it was my college roommate’s dad’s story and it was a life-changing moment for me……and it had very little to do with actually boobs).
If you’ve followed me, you understand my mind is in a constant state of flux. I am constantly growing, changing, adapting, evolving. I am merely trying to pull a few of you along, too, so you can take what helps you and discard the fluff and bullshit that inevitably comes with the territory of following a bit of a loose cannon such as myself.
Two nights ago, I had something finally sink in a little better. I was reading a book by Jonathan Bales and it started echoing what Keith Hall (aka Boomer’s Daddy in the Army) has been trying to explain to me for months. I’ve been listening, but it never resonated much because I didn’t have enough context or depth to flip the light bulb on. Basically, baseball is the most random of the major DFS sports. NBA is the least random. When it comes to eating chalk, baseball almost spits it out while basketball pretty much rewards it. Football lies somewhere in the middle.
That’s an important concept to grasp because it absolutely defines how you should attack each sport based on public perception. Baseball rewards contrarianism. This is fact, and has been stated in the Army all season long. Hell, even Kevin (aka FFootballGeek) says so…..and he HATES baseball. The main reason contrarian thinking is rewarded more frequently in baseball because the sport is inherently so random. The other reason, and perhaps the biggest reason the payoff is so worth it, is because the people playing baseball are NOT adjusting properly. They are still overplaying chalk picks for such a random sport. This leads to mistakes, and gives the contrarian player the win frequency big enough to get seriously paid off when he’s correct……or more likely when the herd misses (which is a lot).
I’ll expand on this stuff more as it percolates my brain. That much I can promise you. I’m an open book. If I have a thought I feel worthy of sharing, you can bet it will come out in print soon. Let’s table this for later, but remember………baseball rewards contrarianism because it’s so inherently random AND current players are overplaying chalk picks.
Due to the full slate of games and a busy day, I may or may not get back to actual game blurbs. I’d bet on not. But, you at least get a graphic showing you where to start your research….
Your weather will be in WAS today. This one looks dicey so far today. Check back later, but the pitchers are off the table for me. ATL is early storms followed by late clearing. I’d say more late start than any chance of PPD. Pitchers, should you want one, should be fine here.
– Choppodong’s Dong of the Day –
It’s been awhile since I’ve used my go-to dong call. Yesterday was Yan Gomes who didn’t make the lineup. So, make sure this boy is playing before you tee him up. I have a tendency to make these dongers sit for the day….
Until tomorrow….HOOAH!