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THE HARD NINE — A Beginner’s Guide to Daily Fantasy Baseball (2nd Inning: Cash vs GPP)

tin-cup-best-golf-scenes-warner-brothers

 

This isn’t going to be yet another boring “Cash vs GPP” article.  This is actually something requiring introspection into your very soul.  I need you to run down in the cellar of your being, reach even deeper, dust off that mirror, and stare into it.  To be successful at DFS……any sport…….you need to pull a Socrates here.  You need to KNOW THYSELF!

Sure, I led with the picture of Tin Cup.  Most sports fans have seen it.  It’s the ultimate struggle between cash game and GPP mindsets.  On one hand, you have David Sims.  He’s boring.  He plays it safe.  He never fucks up.  He will take a 5 on his card before risking a 6 while trying to make 4.  If he’s in the woods, he punches out to safety.  If he can’t quite get it over the water, he lays up.  He aims for the fat parts of greens, not flagsticks.  Have I made my point?  David Sims takes all risk out of his game.  Period.  On the other hand, we have our hero, Tin Cup.  This son of a bitch wouldn’t take the safe route if there was a naked lady at the end of the journey.  He’d let things ride in hopes of there being three naked ladies at the end of that other road.  In the scene above, he’s down to his last golf ball.  Cup burns bridges, he shoots from the hip, he will gamble and gamble and gamble some more.  He’s the poker player’s version of the all-in.  While David Sims can’t get his head out of his way and play with his heart, Tin Cup can’t get his ego out of his way and play with his head.  It’s honestly the best cash vs GPP struggle you will ever see.

However, one thing about that movie that makes a lot of sense to me.  David Sims knows himself.  He isn’t going to change.  He has accepted the fact he’s conservative almost to a fault.  And, he rides that character trait to the bank almost every tournament he plays.  Cup doesn’t know himself.  He’s middle-aged but still learning.  He may figure out at the end that he’s the gambler that can’t play safe with a gun pointed at his head.  It’s just not him.  He embraces that character trait at the end, but his journey can be like that of a DFS (daily fantasy sports) player.

Your challenge, should you choose to accept it, is the exact same as Tin Cup’s.  Which player are you?  Do you know?  Do you now which parts of your analysis and thinking lend to which style? Well, that’s what we are going to discuss in this beginner’s guide to daily fantasy baseball and where I’m going to attempt to help you once and for all.

Let’s quickly define cash games and tournaments (GPPs, as called in DFS industry).  I define things differently than you will read around the web.  For me, a cash game is any contest paying more than 25% of it’s entrants.  These include, but are not limited to, Head-to-Heads, 50/50s, Double Ups, Triple Ups, 3-man leagues, 5-man leagues, 10-man leagues that pay top 3, 20-man leagues that pay top 6, and other similar contests.  GPPs (Guaranteed Prize Pool) typically pay less than 25% of entrants.  These include 100-man leagues, larger field tournaments like the Millionaire Maker, WTAs (winner take alls) larger than 5, and satellite contests where very few winners receive an entry into an even bigger tournament (often also called Qualifiers).  The interesting contest that winds up sort of caught in the middle is the Quintuple Up that pays the top 20% of it’s field the same amount of money regardless of finishing order.

What would you say if I asked you which was a safer bet……hitting any number below 3 on a 6-sided die or having to hit just the 6?  Which will happen more often?  Which has the greater margin for error?  Which is the safer bet to make?  This is sort of the difference between a cash game and a GPP event.  Now, what if I asked you which one you’d rather try…….for $1, I’ll give you $2 if you roll a 1, 2, or 3; or I’ll give you $5 if you roll a 6 exactly?  The safer play is the $1 into $2, and you are going to win it more often.  The riskier play is to roll the 6 and get the $5.  Which would you choose?  I know which David Sims would choose.  I also know which Tin Cup would choose.

Just because one is safer and one is riskier by no means makes one a better play than the other.  They are just different.  But, playing cash games and GPPs definitely requires different players.  You have a wider margin for error in the safer, cash games.  You need to take some chances in going for the bigger prizes of the GPPs.  They both also require a different bankroll to fund your journey.  Take a look at this graphic by dailyfantasysportsstrategy.com and assume you entered a $10 50/50 on the left and a $10 GPP on the right.  Let’s assume you win enough to create a 10% return on your investment over 1,000 entries of each.  At the end of the journey, you have won the same amount of money after both.  But, look at your ride….

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The cash example is a pretty smooth ride all the way.  The GPP ride sure has it’s ups and downs.  You probably had some big wins in the GPP ride, and you probably had some crazy slumps, too.  In order to cash in those GPPs, you needed to have some higher risk plays pay off for you because you had to beat a larger percentage of the field.  Let’s take a look at just how risky you need to be.  It all comes down to the size of the contest you play.

To find this level of risk, we need to find out what percentage of the field gets paid in prizes.  To find that percentage, we simply divide the number of paid entries into the overall number of the contest.  A 50/50 literally pays half it’s field twice their entry fee no matter the position they place.  In a 1000 player example, the top 500 get paid.  500 divided into 1000 is .5 or 50%.  Let’s compare this to a tournament of the same size but pays it’s winners a staggered structure where only the top 150 earn cash.  150 divided into 1000 is .15 or 15%.  It is going to take a higher score to beat 85% of the field vs beating only 50% of the field.  To do so, you are going to need to take some chances.  As a result, some nights you’ll do great and others you’ll bust out pretty hard.  That’s just the nature of taking bigger swings at bigger prizes.

Also because you will be taking wilder rides on the GPP train, you will need a larger bankroll to cover these swings.  If the GPP train still gets to the same station as the Cash train, you want to make it, right?  To do so, however, you might need 10 times the bankroll because of the variance of outcomes.

Personally, I’m David Sims.  I’m a cash guy.  I don’t like those crazy swings.  I don’t like taking unnecessary risk if I’m just going to wind up in the same place as you.  I don’t need the $100,000 payday if I’m going to lose 1,000 times along the way.  I’d rather just grind and grind and know I’m going to just click along.  It’s just my style.  You might be the other guy that can’t stand the boring grind.  You love it when your guy hits 3 HRs or makes 10 3-pointers in a night or catches two deep bombs for 65 yds and a couple scores.  You might be Tin Cup.  Now, before you get me wrong, don’t you dare assume I don’t like the big prize.  Don’t assume I don’t very well realize that “chicks dig the long ball.”  I mean it’s a whole lot sexier to date a rock and roll star than a guy earning a steady paycheck every two weeks.

Honestly, most people shoot somewhere in the middle.  We like the safety of the cash games, and we like the hope of the bigger payout rewarded by tournaments.  We are kind of a hybridized blend.  We can achieve this by blending the contests we play together and mixing some cash games with some GPPs.  In fact, you might not even need to win as often as the cash game grinder to earn the same money.  Let’s look at two examples and then get into which player types are best suited for MLB cash games and GPPs.

Example 1:  A DFS player calculates he has $8 to wager this week and enters four $2 head-to-heads. He must now win three of these matches to be profitable. DraftKings “rake” is 10%, so each $2 H2H match pays $3.60 to the victor ($3.60 x three wins = $10.80; $10.80 – $8 worth of bets = a total profit of $2.80).  This outcome requires a winning percentage of 75%!

Example 2:  A DFS player enters a $1 tournament with a total of 11,500 entrants. The tournament pays finishing positions 1-2335. The percentage of paid positions is roughly 20% (2335/11,500=.203). He also enters two $1 60-person 50/50s, a $1 three-person winner-take-all, and two $2 five-person winner-take-alls. He has the same $8 at risk, with six ongoing contests ($1+$1+$1+$1+$2+$2). If he finishes in the money in one of the 50/50s ($1.80) and one of the five-person winner-take-alls ($9) and loses the other four contests, his winning percentage is only 33% but his profit is identical to that in Example #1: $2.80.

If that player type appeals to you, I urge you to follow along because at the end of this series I plan to release my Ladder Strategy System.  This is merely a betting allocation system designed to both maximize your return on investment along with maximizing your frequency of winning contests while minimizing your losses by hedging your bets with a safety net of cash contests.  Our DFS Army members have gravitated to this basic strategy with some outstanding results.

 

Hopefully, you have some grasp of which player you are at this point.  How about we cover some basic concepts for constructing your lineups for our cash games and GPPs.  For the hybridized version, you simply decide how much risk you are willing to put into your lineup.  Are you going completely safe?  Will you take a chance on one guy or two?  Will you throw caution to the wind and try and hit your own home run?  I can’t decide for you, but I can give you some factors to look at while researching the players you plan to identify as best for you.

A cash game pitcher will usually be expensive.  Your pitcher is by far your most consistent source of points, and you want to protect that.  Look for Vegas odds favorites.  Look for a pitcher than can get you those strikeouts we identified as being key back in the 1st Inning of our series.  A pitcher in line to grab the win is of major importance to you, and it’s generally going to cost you quite a sum of money.  You are likely going to have to sacrifice with your hitters.  That’s ok, though.

For cash game hitters, you want to look at a couple of factors.  Identify players that reach base.  Look for OBP (On-base Percentage), guys that score runs, players hitting at the top of their team’s batting order.  Guys with great contact rates and low strikeouts.  These guys may not hit you a lot of home runs, but you don’t need that to build a stable, competitive lineup that can win cash games.  You need consistency.  You need a guy that gets on base every game.

For GPP pitchers you can take the cheaper guy because you want to take risks with your bats.  You can find a cheaper pitcher that’s in a great spot and just might outperform his expectations.  You can look for that guy that either strikes everyone out when his stuff is really good or just walks everyone like Wild Thing Williams and gets yanked in the 2nd inning because he “just doesn’t have it today.”

For GPP hitters, you are definitely looking for power.  Not at all costs.  I mean you do want some safety.  But, power is where it’s at.  If you can find those guys that hit in the middle of their order and have the potential to hit 2 homeruns on any given night, you have a recipe for a huge score.  You don’t care that much about strikeouts or the fact when he misses with a monster swing he looks like the Tazmanian Devil.  You only want those times he sends one to the moon because he racks up a ton of points and you skyrocket up a leaderboard.  You want OPS (On-base Plus Slugging percentage).  You want ISO (a measure of true power).  You want a guy that’s riding a hot streak (7-day batting average).  You want a guy in a home run ball park like Coors Field.  These guys, when right, win you tournaments.  When wrong, though, you finish near the bottom.  But, who cares?  You are in a GPP to win it and are taking the necessary risk to do so.

Weather is a factor.  If rostering cash, you want to avoid rain in the forecast like it’s that cop at the stop sign on your way home from happy hour.  Rainouts are death to your lineup because you get nothing for that roster spot.  A big, fat zero.  God forbid that happen to your pitching spot.  Look, hitters can run back out after a rain delay.  Most pitchers don’t.  Warming up and sitting and warming up again and sitting is taxing on an arm.  If there’s more than about a 40% chance of rain, I’m looking elsewhere for a cash game pitcher.  Now, in a GPP scenario, I might gamble a bit.  If everyone else looks elsewhere, I have a decided advantage if it doesn’t rain and my guy pitches the gem he was supposed to……and I’d have him all to myself.  Again, this works with hitters, too, just not to the degree it works with pitchers.  It’s one of the highest risk/reward situations in DFS baseball.

BvP is a statistic that banks specifically on the history between a Batter and a Pitcher.  For cash games, you are going to want some track record before giving this statistic any consideration.  I will look after about 15-20 at-bats.  If I’m playing a GPP, I might give that statistic more credence much earlier because I want that trend to pan out for me.  But, I might also gamble on a guy with a great BvP situation failing by NOT taking him and letting everyone else do so.  I might take a guy intentionally with a history of the pitcher owning HIS ass in hopes that his numbers vs that pitcher start to normalize towards his career numbers on my watch.  Lots of ways to play that BvP stat.  But, for cash, it’s best to accumulate some history.

Ownership percentage is another factor that differs between cash games and GPPs.  If I play a cash game where 75% of the players will be starting a particular pitcher, I really don’t care.  We will all win together and die together and it really won’t affect our scores much.  I’m certainly not going against the grain often and gambling on another guy.  This 75% owned guy is the “chalk” pitcher for that slate for a reason.  He’s usually very, very good at what he does and I can’t afford to not own him the day he tosses some shutout with 15 strikeouts because I’d be at such a disadvantage by missing those points it would be almost impossible to recover.  Now, in a GPP, I might get away from that guy on purpose and absolutely gamble on him having a bad night.  If that happens, I might ride my other pitcher straight to the top of the leaderboards.  It becomes a risk worth taking due to the format of the contest I enter and me needing to beat 85% of the players to earn money.  Look at who Vegas is predicting to have a huge game.  A pitcher that is a massive favorite.  Look for hitters at Coors Field or another great ballpark for home runs, and look for that hitter to be facing a terrible pitcher and I’ll show you someone almost everyone will try and put on their team.  This can be your sign in cash games to roster him.  It can be your sign in GPPs to be so far off that guy he might as well play in China.

Stacking is a common technique in baseball.  Stacking is where you roster several players from the same team in hopes one guy drives the others in after they got hits, too.  This can really pile in the points.  But, it doesn’t come without it’s risk.  If the game goes sour or the opposing pitcher really tosses a gem, you are likely find yourself at the bottom of the leaderboards because you put all your eggs in one basket.  Do this in a Coors Field game when the score winds up surprising everyone at 4-1 and you’ll know what I mean.  For safety in cash games, I generally spread my hitters out across the slate quite a bit.  I try to stick with no more than two players from the same team.  Sometimes, I won’t take two from the same game.  This way, I am exposed to some games that will go crazy and I’m very lightly exposed to those that don’t.  I’m mitigating my risk here.  However, in those GPPs I’m stacking several games and I might take upwards or 4-5 (depending on the site) players from the same lineup.  I’m hoping for a game that has a few homeruns in it and perhaps 10 runs or more for the team I’m picking my players from.

There are a few other strategies involving cash vs GPP concepts I’m sure we will cover as this series rolls on.  Our next installment will cover the most critical statistics you want to watch when researching the best players in the best spots.  Look for THE HARD NINE– A Beginner’s Guide to Daily Fantasy Baseball (3rd Inning: Critical Statistics), as I hope to have it out soon.