We’re staying down south but moving from Texas to Louisiana for the Zurich Classic.  It’s a Pete Dye designed 7,400 yard par 72.  Despite being a Dye design, this is one of the easiest courses on Tour and winning scores usually go 20 under and below.  Unlike the last 2 weeks, there are no real course horses here, and even people who have done well here recently like Rose have missed cuts in the past.  Course history just seems to be a bit less telling this week, so focus more on statistics and current form.  The fairways are wide but you need to be able to shape your shot well on some holes.  Trees are everywhere which minimizes the effect of wind but can also get you into a lot of trouble in the native area.  The greens are flat and easy to putt on so putting stats shouldn’t be as big a factor this week as tee to green stats.  Strokes Gained: Tee To Green will obviously be crucial and I’d prefer longer drivers over shorter ones, but the most important stat to check out is Birdie or Better %.  The cut will be several strokes under par and if you want a good finish you need to go really low.  Scrambling is also going to be important if you get into the rough/swamp.  As far as fantasy scoring goes, you want the guy who will par as little as possible and get lots of birdies and par 5 eagle chances.  All 4 of the par 3 holes on this course are between 200 and 225 yards so Scoring Efficiency- Par 3 200-225 Yards will be an important stat to check out.  It’s not up publicly on the pgatour website but it’s on the weekly cheat sheet.

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Core Plays

Jason Day $12,500

The world’s #1 ranked golfer is the clear favorite to win at 5/1 Vegas odds.  He finished 4th last year and he can easily win any tournament he participates in.  He’s a birdie monster and he’s one of the few golfers in the field who average under par on 200+ yard par 3s.  As far as statistics go, he’s well above average in all of them except Proximity and Driving Distance, which he can make up for with scrambling.  He’s expensive so expect lower ownership on Day than Rose, but he’ll still be heavily used.

Justin Rose $11,800

The defending champ is one of the few course history plays here, as he has 4 straight top 15 finishes.  He’s easily going to be the highest owned player and is pretty much a mandatory play in cash games.  Fading him in GPP is a risky, but potentially rewarding move that could put you ahead of a quarter or more of the field.  He’s one of the top birdie-makers on tour and his Strokes Gained stats are superb, making his chalkiness justified.  The on;y thing I can see slowing down his ownership is his mediocre showing at the Masters, but it’s not like he missed the cut or anything.

Charlie Hoffman $10,500

After Luke Donald almost won the RBC Heritage, the course horse finally took the prize with Hoffman’s win last week.  Of course his history here is nowhere as good as it was at Texas, but he posted a T5 his last time out here.  Hoffman is usually a player that’s pretty good but streaky depending on his putter.  Well his putter is very hot right now (1.47 SG:Putting rating last week!) and he’s been not only making cuts, but posting good scores early and staying well above the cut line.  He finally got over his Sunday troubles last week so it seems like he’s in as good of form as anyone.  He’s pretty expensive now but should still see some decent ownership around 15-20%.

Marc Leishman $9,100

Leishman hits all the statistical categories you want, especially the long irons and par 3.  He drives it almost 300 with accuracy and is one of the best in the field at SG:Tee to Green.  His ownership will not be that heavy so he makes for a good GPP play and I just think he’s underpriced for the field he’s in.

Cameron Tringale $8,600

Tringale has 4 top 20 finishes here in 5 starts including 2nd place last year.  This is the second course history venue in a row for him and last week he made the cut, but then fell off and finished T60.  His statistics are underwhelming, but he ranks well in the key par 3 range.  What intrigues me about this play is how low owned he was last week.  (under 3% in some tourneys)  T60 doesn’t look too great in the game logs so I don’t expect people to pile onto him despite last year’s finish so he could make for a solid GPP only play.

Boo Weekley $7,800

Boo has a pretty nice history here too with 4 top 15 finishes in 6 starts and 3rd place last year, but the reason for this play is really because this is a Pete Dye course and that’s where Weekley has always excelled.  He wasn’t at Texas, but he played pretty well at Harbour Town the week before.  (also a Dye design)  Don’t use him in cash games because of his blowup nature, but use him in GPP.

Sean O’Hair $7,600

O’Hair and Weekley share the same affinity for Dye courses, and when he’s not WDing (which happens a lot, GPP ONLY) he’s been making cuts and finishing decently.  Last year this is when his time of year is when his game really took an upswing and I see that happening here.  He finished T12 here last year and as far as stats go, he’s long off the tee, can hit greens, and can scramble really well.

David Hearn $7,500

Hearn is the only ‘course horse’ here who has yet to miss a cut.  He’s yet another player who just tends to do well on Pete Dye designs and he had a very good week last week.  You’d figure his stats would all be bad from his horrid start to the season, but he ranks very highly in proximity and longer iron play which is key.  He’s also good in the key par 3 range.

Kyle Stanley $7,400

The dude is making cut after cut and it’s because he has a hot putter.  In his last 4 tournaments he’s posted Strokes Gained: Putting stats of +.7, +1.1, +.7, and +.8 which is really good.  He finished 3rd here in 2013 and hasn’t missed a cut since so play him in cash and GPP.

Luke List $7,400

He was popular last week and should be even more popular this week.  You may want to fade him and pivot to Stanley but you can’t really go wrong with playing him, he’s in terrific form right now and is making cut after cut after cut.  His Proximity and Driving Accuracy stats are suspect but he crushes it off the tee, hits a lot of birdies, and has good Tee to Green stats.

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Value Plays/Punts

• John Huh $7,300
• John Senden $7,200
• Lucas Glover $7,200
• Will Wilcox $7,100 (missed the cut by 1 shot on the last hole in ’15, forgive him)
• Jhonattan Vegas $7,100
• Nick Taylor $6,900
• Stuart Appleby $6,900
• Jeff Overton $6,800
• Jason Gore $6,800
• Stuart Appleby $6,900
• David Toms $6,700 (elite at par 3 key range)
• Morgan Hoffmann $6,700
• Jason Bohn $6,700 (elite at par 3 key range, former winner)
• D.A. Points $6,600
• Erik Compton $6,600
• Retief Goosen $6,500
• Brett Stegmaier $6,500
• Andrew Loupe $6,400
• Chad Collins $6,400
• Tyler Aldridge $6,300
• Brian Davis $6,200
• Chesson Hadley $6,100
• Brice Garnett $6,100
• Tim Wilkinson $6,000
• Rhein Gibson $5,700