Long night last night + short slate today = briefer than brief briefing this morning.
Fall in, soldiers!! This process isn’t intended to take long. It’s a skim, if you will. You are starting your research by quickly glancing over the day’s slate and gathering your early intel. Our goal is to give you a head start on today’s action. Keith and I will be back later with picks and analysis for the slate for our VIP Insiders, as well as provide answers to questions as much as possible in the VIP Slack channels.
Daily Fantasy Players are priced by many factors. Some of the key factors are the teams’ seasonal averages in points scored and the pace at which they play. We can assume if a team is expected to score more points than they usually do, players from that team are in a better than usual spot to succeed. We can also assume if a team is expected to play at a faster pace than usual, their players are in a better than usual spot to succeed.
VEGAS LINES – It honestly all starts here. 200 is the standard for a game in which we can expect fantasy goodness to appear. But, a lot more factors come into play, too. We don’t try to predict blowouts, but red spreads indicate the possibility. I will also add the NBA is changing. Last season, there may have been one game total over 230. This season, we have already seen more than ever. 190 totals are becoming more uncommon than common. We may revisit the magical 200 someday and call it 215. Either way, I am targeting the highest few games on any slate, regardless of the totals. I use this graphic as a guide.
There literally are none at this time. Vegas got lazy again and this is really, really stupid. I wish I could email them directly and tell them how stupid they are.
POINTED UP! – The teams with green numbers for +/- PPG (Points Per Game) are expected to outperform their seasonal scoring averages per Vegas. Teams with red are expected to under-perform.
Because there are no lines, there are no individual team totals. We do have pace numbers below, but seriously………..Vegas, you are dumb. If any of you have an uncle working in the sportsbooks out there, please forward him a link to this article. I want him to know how lazy and dumb he is.
PACED UP! – Similar to being pointed up, the teams in green should be playing faster than normal while the teams in red should be playing slower. More possessions might mean more opportunity to score points.
| Team Offense | Opponent | Team Total | PPG | Team +/- | Pace | Proj. Pace | Pace +/- |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | HOU | TBD | 110.2 | TBD | 99.5 | 101.4 | 1.9 |
| Houston Rockets | OKC | TBD | 106.1 | TBD | 100 | 101.4 | 1.4 |
| Miami Heat | NO | TBD | 99.3 | TBD | 95.7 | 96.7 | 1 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | LAL | TBD | 99.1 | TBD | 95.7 | 95.6 | -0.1 |
| Brooklyn Nets | CHA | TBD | 98.3 | TBD | 96.9 | 96.7 | -0.2 |
| Charlotte Hornets | BKN | TBD | 103.1 | TBD | 97.9 | 96.7 | -1.2 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | MEM | TBD | 97.7 | TBD | 98 | 95.6 | -2.4 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | MIA | TBD | 103.3 | TBD | 99.1 | 96.7 | -2.4 |
No one is paced up or down significantly enough this morning to glean any significant information.
TOTAL FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED & DvP RANKINGS – This graphic provides a quick glance at how strong or weak a defensive team plays overall, as well as against a specific position. We are looking for green numbers and trying to avoid red numbers, and we are looking to roster a player from the OPPONENT’s team in the 2nd column. Example, the MEM PG is, theoretically, in great spot.
| Team Defense | Opponent | TotalFPA | vs. PG | vs. SG | vs. SF | vs. PF | vs. C |
| Los Angeles Lakers | Memphis | 30 | 30 | 28 | 29 | 20 | 28 |
| Houston Rockets | Oklahoma City | 27 | 13 | 24 | 30 | 29 | 20 |
| Brooklyn Nets | Charlotte | 24 | 24 | 23 | 21 | 21 | 25 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | Miami | 22 | 16 | 26 | 15 | 17 | 29 |
| Charlotte Hornets | Brooklyn | 17 | 12 | 14 | 20 | 23 | 10 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Houston | 10 | 22 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 4 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | L.A. Lakers | 6 | 9 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 5 |
| Miami Heat | New Orleans | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 4 | 6 |
Finally, something we can sink our teeth into. Lots o’green on this graphic. I would be focused on those top three teams, especially in cash games. In a four-game slate, I might be looking towards the middle for GPP LUs just to get off the herd, which is harder to do in such short slates. I’d probably be more 5-7 spots of the green numbers and maybe a couple of black numbers for GPP. But, I haven’t looked at anything yet myself, so I may find myself shooting that theory down when I dig in deeper.
Another easy thing to watch is exhaustion control. Many coaches will rest players on the 2nd half of consecutive games. Basketball can take it’s toll and coaches need to keep their players fresh when they can. Players playing back to back games become prime targets for rest or limited minutes, obviously hurting their fantasy production and value to us. We further watch for situations like 3 games in 4 nights or the dreaded 4 games in 5 nights. We also watch traveling teams with particular interest.
BACK 2 BACKS! – Graphics containing teams we should watch for limited minutes and/or rest days. Maybe hard to see the colors, but yellow is caution, orange is a little more caution, and red is just crazy.
| Team | B2B | 2of3 | 3of4 | 4of5 |
| Atlanta | ||||
| Boston | Yes | |||
| Brooklyn | ||||
| Charlotte | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| Chicago | ||||
| Cleveland | ||||
| Dallas | ||||
| Denver | ||||
| Detroit | ||||
| Golden State | ||||
| Houston | ||||
| Indiana | ||||
| L.A. Clippers | ||||
| L.A. Lakers | ||||
| Memphis | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| Miami | ||||
| Milwaukee | Yes | |||
| Minnesota | ||||
| New Orleans | Yes | |||
| New York | ||||
| Oklahoma City | ||||
| Orlando | Yes | |||
| Philadelphia | Yes | |||
| Phoenix | ||||
| Portland | ||||
| Sacramento | Yes | |||
| San Antonio | ||||
| Toronto | ||||
| Utah | ||||
| Washington |
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Bankroll Challenge rolling results since Feb 22, 2016…..
| Date | Score | Money IN | Money Out | Profit/Loss | Adjusted Bankroll |
| Mon – 7 | 379.2 | 10 | 53 | 43 | 134.9 |
| Tues – 8 | 222.7 | 6 | 0 | -6 | 128.9 |
| Wed – 9a | 300 | 7 | 2.3 | -4.7 | 124.2 |
| Wed – 9b | 321.2 | 7 | 12.1 | 5.1 | 129.3 |
| Thrus – 10 | 301.5 | 8 | 4 | -4 | 125.3 |
| Fri – 11a | 279.1 | 12 | 2.5 | -9.5 | 115.8 |
| Fri – 11b | 336.6 | 9 | 30.2 | 21.2 | 137 |
| Fri – 18 | 162.5 | ||||
| Mon – 21 | 260.2 | 13 | 4.2 | -8.8 | 153.7 |
Not much to say here. I honestly had no business getting back any money last night. I rostered Kyrie Irving, Jared Sullinger, and Tyson Chandler. All of whom laid dinosaur sized eggs. In a strange way, I feel like getting back something was a small win.
This Morning Briefing article, again, is not the end-all be-all when it comes to analyzing a slate. This is a first glance to identify targets we may want to dive deeper into. You may, in fact, choose a player in a poor DvP matchup due to other indicators, especially on a short slate night. Don’t overthink this stuff. The concept is to put your players in the best spots to be successful and roll them out. Keith and I will be back later to provide the VIP Insiders with more in-depth player analysis and specific picks for tonight. And, of course, the cheatsheets…… (Remembering, of course, cheatsheets come out on slates 5 games and larger.)