In today’s game, the best goal scorers in the league will net about 40 or 50 goals by the end of the year. This leaves at least 30 games a year where they won’t be scoring.
What this means is that in roughly half of the games throughout the year a stud might “underperform” your expectation. This can almost make the entire season feel like a 50/50 contest.
But it doesn’t need to be. Let’s breakdown why.
In DFS hockey, fantasy points are at a premium. So how do we find those points? Through my experience, i’ve found one metric to be a key indicator above everything else: shots on goal.
This is the first statistic i look at when debating drafting a player to my team. From the high-priced studs to the bottom of the barrel punts.
And why? Because shots usually lead to goals. But there are a couple other reasons why recorded shots are the most important stat to an NHL DFS player as well.
Let’s start with the impact of a shot at face value. On Draft Kings you get .5 points for every shot on goal. On Fan Duel you get .4 points for the same.
It just makes sense to draft players who shoot the puck most often, especially in cash games, because they give you the most guaranteed points.
For goalies, you get .2 points on both DK and FD for saves made. They also get -1 points for every goal scored against them. This is where strategy differs a little.
In cash games, i wold recommend playing it safe and taking a goalie who might see less shots and therefore has less opportunity to let in goals and a better chance to win.
For GPPs, i want the goalie facing a ton of shots but still maintaining a good chance to win. More shots against gives them the opportunity for saves. A lot of saves and a win means a lot of fantasy points for you.
Then of course, there’s the obvious answer. Alex Ovechkin, Tyler Seguin, and Patrick Kane all are in the top 5 in the league in shots on goal. They’re also the only three players in the league who have eclipsed the 30 goal plateau at this point. That’s not a coincidence.
But even if they’re not beating the goalie clean, shots on goal lead to rebounds as well. If a teammate scores on the rebound, the original shooter picks up an assist now too. If it’s a linemate and you stacked properly, you just picked up double points off of one play. I can’t stress enough how huge that is in NHL DFS where every half of a point can be the difference between bubbling and cashing.
Or more importantly, between 1st and 2nd place.
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A simple search through the stats on NHL.com can show you the leaders in shots on goal for both players and teams. Aside from actually watching the games, utilizing this statistic is the best asset at your disposal.
Use it to your advantage.
Now this is a weekday slate with a lot to offer. There are 11 games tonight. Let’s get into the breakdown and see where our best opportunities are.
7 p.m. Washington Capitals at New York Islanders
Braden Holtby should get the start for the Caps tonight after receiving Tuesday night off. And you just don’t want to go against Holtby or the Caps at this point.
Washington has a 16 point lead in the Metropolitan Conference at the moment. By the time the regular season ends, it will probably be more than that.
The biggest drawback here is that the studs for the Caps will be expensive. But if you can make it work, all of the playable options are good in all formats.
Ovechkin and his line mates, TJ Oshie and Nick Backstrom, are always in play. Ovechkin leads the league with 279 shots and 35 goals.
The drawback here is they will be pretty expensive to stack together. So if you decide to go that route, you most likely won’t be able to stack another line with them.
This can be OK as it can lead to finding some value plays that are under owned and can pay off.
The Caps second line is also a solid play in all formats. They were the heroes in Tuesday’s 3-1 win over the Kings. Andre Burakovsky had a goal and two assists, while line mates Evgeni Kuznetsov and Justin Williams also added points. They consistently provide secondary scoring, and they are easier to stack than Washington’s first line.
On the defensive side, John Carlson is the power play QB and has 30 points in 43 games this year. He’s also cheaper on FD than other defensemen of his caliber. Take advantage of that.
The Islanders are a good team. Most nights they stay on the fantasy radar. But their strength is in their depth and the possibility of a crooked number. The Caps are playing too well and with Holtby figuring to be back in net, the Isles are probably a fade tonight.
7 p.m. Detroit Red Wings at Pittsburgh Penguins
The Penguins still are without Evgeni Malkin but they continue to roll just the same. They’re 7-2-1 in their last 10 and picking up ground on the final wild card position.
Sidney Crosby was back above a point per game after a dreadful start to the season, but a recent three-game slide has him back below the line.
Still, with 53 points in 54 games and the Pens playing so well, you can expect him to heat up again soon. Especially once Malkin comes back and takes some of the defensive attention away from him.
The best play from this game is still Crosby. He will finish the season with around 90 points, so you can expect them to come in bunches down the stretch. Tonight will see Crosby back in his best form.
He’s playing with Chris Kunitz and Patric Hornqvist. Hornqvist and Crosby also see PP1 time together with defenseman Kris Letang, who makes a great standalone play.
Letang has 135 shots through 45 games. So he averages about 3 shots a game. This has led to production of 9 goals and 40 points out of a defenseman.
The Red Wings are still in playoff position, but just average lately at 5-4-1 in their last 10 games.
The top line of Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk and Justin Abdelkader is a solid GPP play, as Zetterberg and Datsyuk still have multi-point games left in their bag of tricks.
What i don’t like about Detroit, at least fantasy-wise, is their lack of a puck rushing defenseman. Mike Green is their chosen PP1 QB. Three of his 4 goals this year have come with the man advantage.
But he’s a defensive liability. He’s playing to a -10 this year, which is not good if you’re playing on FD, and his 4 goals and 21 points don’t justify the risk he poses.
7:30 p.m. San Jose Sharks at Florida Panthers
The Sharks are still on the road tonight as they visit Florida. And they’re still one of the best road teams in the league at 19-8-2 away from San Jose.
They have tough matchup tonight against the Atlantic Division leading Panthers, but they might be getting them at just the right time.
Roberto Luongo has been a rock in goal for the Panthers for most of the season. But two of his last 3 starts have been shaky. He was pulled early in Friday’s 5-3 loss to St. Louis. He started the next night and surrendered 5 goals in a loss to Nashville.
San Jose is the type of team that will make you pay for shaky goaltending, and they’re still playing well at 6-2-2 in the last 10 and coming off two consecutive wins.
It’s becoming tougher to pinpoint where the goals will come from in San Jose’s lineup now that they’re healthy. They have the best depth in the league down the middle. Other teams would kill to have Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, and Logan Couture as their top 3 centers. It’s a good problem to have.
The top line of Tomas Hertl, Thornton, and Joe Pavelski is still the best option. But any mix of the top 6 plus Couture can be a good GPP play, as evidenced by the monster night of Matt Nieto, Joel Ward and Marleau in Tuesday’s 4-2 win over Tampa.
Aside from the even strength options. The power play is stacked with talent. Pavelski, Thornton, Marleau and Couture play with defenseman Brent Burns. Burns, by the way, is second in the league with 240 shots on goal.
Out of all the players in the Sharks lineup, Burns is the most matchup proof of the lot.
As for the Panthers, they are still without top line center Alex Barkov, which caused the Panthers to recently juggle their lines to try to find some scoring.
Jaromir Jagr was bumped onto the second line with Reilly Smith and Vincent Trochek. But the trio also sees PP1 minutes together, making them the best option for the Panthers tonight in what could turn out to be a high scoring game.
7:30 p.m. Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning
Both of these teams are coming off of losses on Tuesday, but the Lighting still have something to play for and are facing a listless Winnipeg squad.
Look for Tampa to score a few in this one.
The Bolts have reunited the “Triplets” line of Ondrej Palat, Nikita Kucherov and Tyler Johnson.
This line was a goldmine for DFS players last season, and now that everyone is healthy and back together, they will do the same down the stretch here.
Kucherov is the only one of the three who didn’t see extended time on the shelf this year, and he’s turned it into a productive season, leading the team with 48 points.
7:30 p.m. Carolina Hurricanes at Ottawa Senators
My favorite value play of the night is in the game.
Justin Faulk did not travel with the team to Ottawa, so it seems the collision with a teammate from last Friday’s practice is a bit more serious than originally thought.
The Canes are hoping to get him back soon as he lead their team in scoring. But in the meantime, his replacement as the PP1 QB is dirt cheap and picking up playing time and confidence with each game.
Noah Hanifin is the defenseman the Canes have given the PP1 QB duties to in Faulks absence. He should be dirt cheap. He’s averaged two shots on goal over the last 4 games in Faulk’s absence, and it’s no coincidence that has turned into a goal and an assist in his last 2.
Upfront the Hurricanes are tough to call, but the hottest player of late has been Jordan Staal. He has 7 points in his last 5 games and is playing on a line with two very cheap wingers, Joakim Nordstrom and Andrej Nestrasil.
For Ottawa, defenseman Erik Karlsson is always in play in all formats. He’s fourth in the league in scoring with 64 points.
Upfront, the Senators juggled the lines earlier this week and came up with a pretty solid top 6. The top line of Mike Hoffman, Mark Stone, and Kyle Turris can be an intriguing GPP play.
7:30 p.m. New York Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs
The Maple Leafs have basically become the punching bag of the league. Fresh off of a 7-2 loss against Chicago on Monday, I don’t see things getting much better for them tonight against the Rangers.
New York played last night and lost 5-3 to those same Hawks, but they should be able to rebound tonight with a win over the Leafs, whose basic gameplan is to show up, throw their sticks on the ice, and see what can happen before they go home.
The top line of Chris Kreider, Mats Zuccarello and Derek Stepan should get their fair share of chances tonight and immediately become a safe play in all formats because of their opponent.
Also, a very nice value GPP play emerges from the Rangers’ third line of Oscar Lindberg, Victor Stalberg and Kevin Hayes. They are one of the more talented third lines in the league, and should be affordable as a stack, especially if you want to pay up for one of the higher priced stacks tonight such as Ovechkin or Seguin’s line.
8 p.m. Los Angeles Kings at St. Louis Blues
What a difference a month makes!
In January i would have looked at this game and thought, “first place Kings, top line of Kopitar, take it to the bank.”
Now i see, slumping LA (4-6 in last 10) vs. a streaking St. Louis (won three straight) that is finally healthy.
I’m leaning towards the Blues in this one.
I don’t have exact statistics, but the Blues have got to be among the league leaders in the amount of players spent on the IR this season.
They’re still without defenseman Alex Pieterangelo, but Kevin Shattenkirk is their best offensive defenseman and QB’s the PP. And goalie Jake Allen is still on the shelf but it has led to the emergence of Brian Elliot who has been one of the league’s best over the last couple weeks.
The Blues top 6 is very impressive, and Paul Stastny as a third line center rivals San Jose for the most impressive depth up the middle.
Again, it’s tough to call which of the top two lines will be the one to pick up the goals tonight, but if you want to play it safe go with the top line of Alex Steen, Dave Backes and Patrik Berglund. Backes and Steen see the PP1 time together as well as the even strength minutes.
The second line of Jaden Schwartz, Jori Lehtera and Vlad Tarasenko is the more talented trio, so they’re definitely capable of going off. But only Tarasenko sees the PP1 minutes of these three.
8 p.m. Boston Bruins at Nashville Predators
Here are two teams playing well and climbing the standings to jockey for playoff position.
Nashville is really hitting their stride as the chemistry is really showing in their offensive lines since bringing in Ryan Johansen.
Boston is in the same boat, as their offensive lines are set and clicking with the return of Patrice Bergeron.
This will be a close game based on recent play, but given the Bruins road record (19-6-3) and the Predators deficiency at 3-on-3 (1-9), Boston gets the slight edge.
Bergeron slots back onto the top line with Brad Marchand and Brett Connolly. Marchand is one of the hottest players in the league with 13 goals in his last 14 games. This is a good 2-man or full line stack in all formats.
The Predators top line of Calle Jarnkrok, Johansen, and James Neal is a great option for GPP play tonight, as Johansen’s playmaking ability and Neal’s quick release create the possibility of a big night at any time.
Neal and Johansen also see PP1 minutes together. The toughest part when trying to use a Nashville stack is figuring which of the power play defensemen to use, either Shea Weber or Roman Josi. This is the best defensive pairing in the league, and one of the only times that stacking a defensive pair can be a +EV situation.
9 p.m. Minnesota Wild at Edmonton Oilers
Minnesota played last night with an impressive 5-3 win over the Flames. This could be a sign of them turning the corner. All signs point to them trending towards another win over the Oilerstonight.
Luckily, we don’t care who wins this game. We care who can provide the most fantasy value to our lineup.
And to me, that’s still going to be Connor McDavid and Jordan Eberle.
The Wild played Devan Dubnyk last night, so they should be rolling with their backup tonight.
McDavid is a young superstar, so should be all the more effective tonight against a backup goalie and a team that played last night.
The Wild may vey well win the game, but i would think the best individual stats will come from McDavid and his line mates. The other wing is occupied by Benoit Pouliout.
For the Wild, Ryan Suter is back in play as a defenseman PP QB option. Still cheap on FD at $4,800 and has 3 points over the Wilds’ recent 2-game win streak, and 5 points over the last 5 games.
9 p.m. Dallas Stars at Arizona Coyotes
Fans of wide-open, back-and-forth hockey will love this game.
The Coyotes are struggling to keep pace in the Western Conference playoff picture, but their style of hockey is still fast-paced and fund to watch.
They scored 6 goals in their most recent win over Montreal, and they’re offense is clicking.
By contrast the Stars are 7-2-1 in their last 10 and 1 point behind Chicago for the Central Division lead.
There are 11 games on the schedule tonight, so anything can happen, but on a smaller slate I would think a GPP winner would have to have some exposure to this game, and that might still be the case tonight.
Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn are back to producing at a high rate of return, and having Patrick Eaves on the wing have turned them into a more affordable stack. These three are a go in all formats. They play well in transition, and they will see a lot of this tonight where the Coyotes’ freewheeling style often leads to odd-man rushes the other way.
And who jumps up in the rush for Dallas more than defenseman John Klingberg? He’s a solid play in all formats as well as he will find himself with plenty of opportunities to score and also QB’s the top power play unit.
For the Coyotes, defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larson leads the team in shots with 176. He also leads the team in points with 44 through 56 games. He’s a smart play in all formats from this point going forward.
11 of OEL’s 17 goals have come with the man advantage. He’s one of the best power play quarterbacks in the league.
Good news for DFS players, the trio upfront on the Yotes PP1 also see even strength minutes together. Martin Hanzal, Anthony Duclair and Max Domi have been heating up and see all of the important offensive minutes for this team. They have responded well as Hanzal has 5 points in the last 4 games and Duclair has 4 over the same span. They make for an under owned GPP play that could surprise some people tonight.
One thing is for sure here, if you touch one of the goalies in this game, you are crazy.
10 p.m. Anaheim Ducks at Vancouver Canucks
If you bet against the Ducks right now you’re in the wrong DFS sport.
They’re 8-1-1 in their last 10 and suddenly 3 points behind LA for first in the Pacific Division.
A month ago i thought the Ducks would miss the playoffs. Now I’m betting on them to win the division.
Ryan Getzlaf is leading the charge along with line mates David Perron and Mike Santarelli. This line has everything you would want out of a top even strength unit. They have the skill to beat you on the transition, but also the toughness to grind out dirty goals by winning battles in the corners and getting pucks to the front of the net. They’re a great play tonight in all formats and also affordable.
The third line for the Ducks is a GPP play that paid off on Tuesday, and will provide the same king of scoring going forward. Andrew Cogliano, Jake Silverberg and Ryan Kesler work well together. They’re a grind it out type of line who play the dirty minutes so they’ll be on the ice late in the game where extra points can be picked up. Cogliano is an example of this with his empty net goal late against Edmonton on Tuesday that I’m sure jumped some lineups north in the standings.
For the Canucks, they’ve lost two straight, including the slump-breaker to Minnesota on Monday. They’re playing without top defender Alexander Edler. They’re not scoring enough to be on the fantasy radar right now.
As always check the practice reports and starting goalies when making your lineups today. There are a lot of games, so some of this info may change with game day decisions. Make sure to stay on top of the latest info and turn that knowledge into power!