I have to admit the daily fantasy sports bankroll challenge has taken a bit of a back seat lately with the increased push to get more content on the website for our community, the DFS Army. Anyone that is not a member needs to check this link out right here…. https://wp.dfsarmy.com/. (Or just check the margin for how to sign up…duh. Old blogging habits will die hard.) This link is to the home page to the community. Read through the content. If you happen to be looking for a place where you and your learning growth is a priority, this is the place to dig in.
Now, for the challenge. This might become more of a weekly edition instead of a daily because we have a lot of new content planned. We are not getting rid of the bankroll challenge and tracking portion of things, but we plan to dive deeper into our processes at picking player A over player B for a given slate, statistics used, and general game theory talk. Our goal is to bring you up from a novice to intermediate to absolute force to be reckoned with should you so desire. This only happens within a community of players of all levels helping each other, and that is definitely what the DFS Army is about.
I never updated Keith appropriately from the previous week. His bankroll is higher than the $55 I had credited him for. It’s closer to $62. I don’t know where we got crossed up, but that’s where I’m starting for this week. Let’s see how he did…..
Taking a quick glance at this slate, Keith did himself a solid. He obviously stepped up in stakes a bit. We have yet to talk about the decision, as it sort of appears to violate the bankroll. But, giving him the benefit of the doubt, he may have had his $6-$7 in something we don’t see. What I do know is this is the actual cash LU he used. That said, until I get some confirmation, I can’t apply it to his numbers/bankroll.
Thursday was the last big slate before the break. Keith and I got together and ran some projections the afternoon before. Funny thing is we never tell each other the LU we are going to play so we can be different. But, this time, we came out exactly identical. It can happen, people. When you see two guys with the same LU, it doesn’t mean they bought it. However, when you see 15 people with the same LU, I’d become very suspicious…..lol. Here is that LU from Thursday….
This one actually got us both a bit tilted. It didn’t even come close to cashing, and it was projected high. I’m sure that’s why we both ran it instead of tweaking it. Sometimes, shit happens. Most of the time in my backyard…….but sometimes, right on my LUs.
We will keep Keith where he was at $62 since we can’t confirm anything at this point.
As for me…..well, I make ice look like boiling water suddenly. I won’t just share with you my “challenge LU.” I will share all three I built for the last slate. Since my last blog post of a cash, I don’t think I’ve even sniffed a 50/50 moneyline. It’s not just bad, it’s demote me to Triple-A/D-League/AHL bad. It’s “time to fire his coach” bad. But, meh……if you read my post Friday on variance, you know it’s bound to happen. And, you also know it’s bound to repair itself if I can only manage my bankroll long enough to allow it. THAT’S the real challenge here…….managing the bankroll.
I want you to focus on something other than the fact these LUs missed everything, everywhere. I don’t even remember which was my “challenge LU.” At this point, it just doesn’t matter. I build a few LUs at times and always designate a challenge LU. Sometimes it hits, sometimes it doesn’t. I rarely toss three duds out there. In summary, I’m in for $4 and out with $0…..roll at $51.20 heading into the break.
What I’d rather you focus on is the player distribution. You should quickly notice that no player other than Jeff Green is in all three LUs. I honestly just couldn’t get him out of my LUs. I ran over a lot of scenarios and just couldn’t do it. I don’t typically go “all in” with even a single player. I will run 2/3 or 3/5, but I won’t go over that. I can’t have a single player dud shoot all my LUs for the slate down the same drain. I don’t care how great the matchup is or how great the player is playing. As much as I like Derick Rose, Batum, Hood, ZBo, and Boogie, I just couldn’t pull the trigger on going all in. I recommend you don’t either because even though I didn’t get saved by my 3rd LU that night, I was at least in position to. Had I ran all of them in all of my LUs…….like my gut was telling me to……..I would have tanked even harder. That’s my small tip to you. Use it as proof I put my money where my mouth is. I’m not building 20 LUs and just showing you the best one to make myself look like some guru. If I had a good night, you’ll know it. If I have a bad night, you’ll know it. I aim to be the only transparent guy you’ll find in DFS. You can look around. You won’t find another more transparent. Most imo are definitely hiding something. We are going to change that.
To further feed the diatribe, you should watch out for anyone calling themself a “guru” or anyone selling you LUs and projections. The hell with that! These guys won’t run the LU they sell you…….it would be identical to 10 of you in the same contest. If they aren’t playing the LUs they are selling, how can you trust them? I don’t.
Before I go on and on and on about these idiots, I’ll just wrap it up. It’s Valentine’s Day and my wife and I are taking the kids to a romantic dinner at the AMC 16 here in town to see Star Wars. We are going to try one of those dine-in theatres. Should be overpriced, but hey……that’s what Christmas gift cards are for, right?
Tune back in early next week for some things Keith and I are working on to bring you guys all the content and value you can click a mouse at. #Dismissed