The Geek’s Week 13 Daily Fantasy Football Vegas Lines Analysis With Fanduel and Draftkings Player Picks

Welcome back to another week of Daily Fantasy Football action. We’ve now gone three weeks in a row where the chalk plays haven’t been working. This past week it was Hopkins and Julio Jones tanking in plus matchups. It’s a reminder to continue to diversify lineups and think outside of the box.

 

Big DFS Army Cashes

I got an email on Sunday from one DFS Army member Leonidax that went like this:

Thank for your tips, I’m currently 6th in the FanDuel 2mill gpp. Have Russell Wilson left 

Obviously after Wilson’s big game I checked back in with Leonidax to see where he was at. It took a while to hear back from him. Then around 1AM I got this obviously drunken email:

Sorry man too much vodka and celebrating….sitting at 2nd and 5th after tonight’s game. The Doug Baldwin td put me out of first. I honestly read your Vegas article over and over every week…..seriously thank you bro

 

 

Leonidax took home a solid $130,000 this weekend on the back of two spectacular lineups! What’s even crazier is Leonidax (Like Jenkcfoote (see below)) is a newer low volume player with just 55 total wins prior to this week:

Check out that awesome DFS Army Avatar he is sporting in his profile! I love it! Leonidax gets a Free DFS Army T-Shirt for representing like that.

I asked Leon about how he came up with the lineup and his thoughts as he was sweating out the finish:

I use your writeup as a base…..then cross reference receivers with pro football focus matchup chart. Max only 2-3 chalk for gpp and low % to fill out roster. If you like player and pff agrees I’m all in..key is to keep chalk at minimum. I’m very contrarian and never played a single cash game. I manage my bankroll with gpp only (sounds crazy). Knowing the percentage owned prior to gpp is the biggest advantage…very easy find within reasonable margin or error. I put a lot of research and time so just happy it worked out. 

I’m happy it worked out for Leonidax as well! It’s been an incredible season for the DFS Army Members. When one of us has a score like this everyone else gets together on Monday Night in our slack chat forum to celebrate together. So I mention it in an email blast about Leonidax and I hear back from another DFS Army Member:

I am a member of the Dfs army & in week 9 , I finished 4th in the millionaire maker & 1st in the Ffwcq, I won a total of $380,000. My team name is jayblaze39 on dk! 

So I’m like holy shit! Send me a screen shot.

 

Jay won $380,000 and a trip to San Diego for the Draftkings Fantasy Football Championships with a shot at the $5 Million top prize.

Here I am in that same $1.25 Million Dollar Play Action Contest sitting just 12 spots behind jayblaze39 with a very similar lineup:

 

I just barely missed making the San Diego Championships with this lineup coming in 4th in a 64K entrant contest where the top 2 move on to San Diego. As always you can check out my Rotogrinders current profile which lists my biggest all time wins here.  14th out of 479K wasn’t my best ever but it was top 5 for me.

A few weeks earlier we had DFS Army member jenkcfoot take 3rd place (and 17th) in the Fanduel Sunday Million which was good for a cool $110,000.

So far in the 2015 season our little DFS Army community of just over 1000 DFS’ers most of which are newer players has produced three winners of over $100,000 and quite a few five figure wins! It really has been an unbelievable season and we still have four more weeks to take down some more big cashes.

Dealing With Bad Weeks

If you had a bad week or a few bad weeks do not start tilting or get upset. Losing weeks should be a learning experience even more than winning weeks. Go back and look at your lineups to see what went wrong and what you could do to improve. Everything starts with solid bankroll management. Always make sure to put the majority of your weekly budget in cash games with 50/50 odds. Keep in mind that you only need to be slightly above average at constructing lineups to win 50/50 contests. Go in to GPP’s with game theory in mind. Sometimes (particularly these past few weeks) it pays to fade the chalk in GPP contests. Finally keep in mind that DFS is your hobby and passion but it’s not your day job. Winning weeks and losing weeks will happen. Hopefully at the end of a season you’ve won more than you’ve lost. The key in DFS is longevity. Eventually you may stumble in to that GPP winning lineup like Leonidax and JenKCfoote did. Even if you never get there remember that DFS is about having fun and adding excitement to the sports we already love to watch every week. If putting $10 on a lineup makes it fun to watch the Browns take on the Ravens on Monday Night then it was worth every penny even if you lose!

DFS Army Updates

The concept behind this blog and the DFS Army VIP memberships was to have an experienced DFS Pro with a record of success willing to share strategy and player picks with the group. The sheer number of big winners we have produced this season proves the model works. This week we are proud to add Keith Hall as our resident NBA Pro. Keith finished in 4th place in the Fanduel World Fantasy Basketball Championships last season and he will be mirroring what I do for NFL in our NBA category. That means a mix of free and premium content on a somewhat daily basis. Check out more about Keith Hall and our new DFS Army NBA Insider Memberships Here.

We are still offering DFS Army NFL Memberships FREE for the rest of the season when you register and make a deposit on one of the following DFS sites. In addition we are adding in 1st month of NBA Insider Memberships Free for anyone that registers for the following DFS sites with an initial deposit:

After you sign up for one of these sites and make an initial deposit, email us at [email protected] and let us know which site you registered for and what your screen name is. After we verify the new account we will set you up with a DFS Army NFL membership for the balance of the season plus your 1st month of DFS Army NBA Insider membership free!

Week 13 Vegas Lines:

Thursday Night

 

12/3 8:25 ET Green Bay -3 At Detroit 47

I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about this game. The Packers are reeling at this point and the Detroit Defense has been playing very well recently. The Packers come into this game as 3 point favorites in a game with one of the higher totals of the week. Right now the Packers are desperate for a win and I think they will pull it off but I’m not sure I see a fantasy points bonanza here.

For the Packers we saw Davantae Adams tank the team last week with his awful play. It was difficult to watch. I suppose he could bounce back in this one but I’m not betting on it. The season numbers say that the Detroit isn’t very defensively but the eye test tells a different tale. The Lions have gelled on the Defensive side and have been playing well the past few weeks.  Cobb makes for an interesting play in this spot for contrarian purposes but he has done squat for most of the season and probably doesn’t justify is high salary point on the DFS sites.

The Detroit offense has also turned things around over the past month or so. Stafford is playing well, Calvin is looking more like himself and even Golden Tate got in on the action last week. All that said, the Eagles tissue soft defense is not in the Packers league. I would expect a nice showing from Calvin here as he is basically matchup proof.  In a home game with high totals why not. Theo Riddick will probably be a popular play in this one as well because he had a nice game in prime time last week and game flow should be favorable assuming Vegas is right and the Lions are playing from behind.

Since this is a Thursday game there is a decent chance that the field will overvalue the players in this game. Since I also feel like there is a decent shot that most of the players in this one won’t hit value I’m planning to play the T-M contests and fade this game. There are players with better matchups and better salary points across the rest of the slate so this one can be comfortably faded.

Elite Plays: None

Secondary/GPP: Mega, Riddick, Cobb

 

12/6 1:00 ET At Chicago -7 San Francisco 43

Chicago is playing well right now and this week they get the awful 49ers at home. Vegas sees a blowout win for the Bears and a fairly low scoring affair. Neither one of these teams stand out defensively and while San Francisco has been acceptable at home since dumping Crapernick they are generally turribel on the road.

The Bears get to take on one of the league’s bottom ranked defenses both vs the pass and run. When Cutler throws passes he generally targets Alshon which makes stacking Cutler to Alshon a relatively easy call this week. Marquess Wilson is the WR2 but he is unplayable for DFS purposes. At RB Matt Forte is the STINO (Starter In Name Only) for this one as he is in a complete timeshare with Langford. Last week Forte got 15 carries and one reception. Langford got 12 carries and 1 reception. Both of these guys are too expensive to justify using in an RBBC scenario.

When a team is a road underdog in a low total game there really isn’t much reason to target their offense for DFS purposes. I would consider a value play like Shaun Draughn in this spot. Draughn got pretty much 100% of the snaps for San Francisco last week and at his $4000 salary level on Draftkings it won’t take much for him to hit value. He is a lock for 15+ touches against a mediocre Bears run defense. He has also been used in the check-down game quite a bit which raises the floor.  Boldin also makes for a decent value punt at WR in this spot. He was targeted a ton last week and turned those targets into an 8 catch 93 yard effort. Again not bad for a $4100 salary player on Draftkings.

Elite Plays: Jeffrey, Cutler

Secondary/GPP: Draughn, Boldin

 

2/6 1:00 ET Cincinnati -7 At Cleveland 44

The Bengals head to Cleveland with bad intentions. They are fairly heavy favorites in a game with an average total.

For the Bengals this should be an easy divisional win. The Browns defense has been awful across the board this season and the Bengals should be able to score at will. Andy Dalton makes for a very solid cash play in this spot. You never know where the scoring will come from when it comes to the Bengals. Last week vs the Rams it seemed like the perfect spot for Eifert to beast. Instead Green went off. This week who knows. Both Green and Eifert are playable however. The one issue for me is the fact that Cleveland’s run defense is so awful that the Bengals may simply run it down their throats. That brings us to the run game. Last week Hill came out of the game with an ankle injury. If he was somehow inactive this week I would be ALL IN on Gio. If it goes as I suspect and Hill plays I’m staying away from this situation completely.

The Browns come in with questions at QB. McCown was lost for the season last week and as of this writing it’s not clear who the starter is for the Browns. Austin Davis is a 3rd stringer that doesn’t belong at the helm of an NFL team and Manziel is a complete knucklehead. I don’t trust any of the Browns Offensive players this week.

**Note – Eifert exited last week’s game with a neck injury. If he is seriously hurt or misses this game then Green gets a significant bump in ranking

Elite Plays: Dalton, Green, Eifert, Bengals D

Secondary/GPP: None

 

12/6 1:00 ET At Tennessee -2.5 Jacksonville 43

Another low O/U game here. This is becoming a theme this week. The Titans have actually been very stingy on defense this season. They rank at the top of the league in run defense for the season. On the flip side the Jaguars are an average to below average defense across the board.

The Jaguars lost Hurns last week and those targets went to Julius Thomas who beasted to the tune of 9 receptions 116 yards and a TD. Thomas should continue to see a higher target volume with Hurns out. Robinson also stands to benefit with some extra targets this week and makes for a high upside WR1 play.

Tennessee also has a good spot here. The Jags are just average on defense and they don’t scare anyone. The Titans really can’t run the rock successfully so their scoring needs to come via the pass. Delanie Walker has been one of the top TE’s as far as targets, yardage and consistency this season. The Jaguars have been burned by TE’s all season long and Delanie should continue to put up solid numbers in this one. The other player of interest in the Titans offense is Wright. He was disappointing in his return from injury last week but his 7 targets were encouraging. It is possible he knocked off some of that rust last week and it won’t take much to return value off of his $4300 Draftkings price point.

Elite Plays: Allen Robinson, Delanie Walker

Secondary/GPP: Wright, Thomas, Mariotta, Bortles

 

12/6 1:00 ET At Buffalo -3 Houston 41.5

Houston brings their improving defense to Buffalo this week in a game with one of the lower O/U’s of the week.

Last week Tyrod and Watkins exploded for huge games on the road. I had no shares as the matchup looked awful on paper. Now we have another matchup that looks bad on paper. All in? Houston has actually been solid on defense the past few games. On the season they have been decent against the pass and below average against the run. McCoy is actually in a good spot in this game.  He has been fantastic and consistent for the past five or six games including in some very tough match ups on paper. He is averaging over 20 touches per game and has been getting regular check down game passing work.

Houston comes off a game where they dominated the Saints defensively and didn’t need to do much on offense to win. The Buffalo run defense is solid and Houston RB Blue is exactly the type of plodder that Buffalo’s run defense should feast on. That means that Houston will need to score through the air. Luckily the Texans have the best young WR in the league in Hopkins. Nuk was a lineup killer last week in what looked like a cherry lineup on paper. His ownership numbers should decline dramatically this week in a situation that on paper doesn’t necessarily look as great.

Elite Plays: Hopkins, McCoy

Secondary/GPP: Watkins (boom or bust)

 

12/6 1:00 ET At Miami -5.5 Baltimore 44

The Ravens head to Miami in a game featuring two struggling teams. Miami is a slight favorite in this one and the total is middle of the road for the week.

The Dolphins will be facing a Baltimore Defense that just got shredded by the Browns. I like that the Baltimore run defense has been solid this season because it means that Miami is likely to have success airing it out. Last week Landry had a huge game with 13 receptions, 165 yards and a TD. Miami’s outside WR Matthews was injured in that game and is not likely to play in this one. I would have expected Kenny Stills to step into his role but instead it was rookie 1st rounder DeVante Parker that got the looks. Parker saw 10 targets and converted 4 of them for 80 yards. Parker makes for a boom or bust WR punt this week with a decent shot of returning value against his minimum salary.  Lamar Miller is coming off two dud games where Miami was playing from behind and abandoned the run early. That should not be the case this week but there are still better values at the RB position this week than Miller.

The Ravens face a Miami defense that hasn’t been good. They are at the bottom of the league vs the run and below average vs the pass. We saw who Matty Schaub was last week with his 2TD 2 INT game against the awful Browns defense.  I wouldn’t touch him in this spot. Kamar Aiken could be an acceptable WR punt here but at $4800 on Draftkings there are better plays. Ravens RB Javorious Allen has the best matchup in this game going up against the porous Miami Run D. One area of concern for me is that Allen ceded touches to recent garbage dump pickup Terrance West last week. Allen only got 12 rushing attempts in a game that looked ideal on paper. West stepped in with 7 carries in that one. As a positive for Allen he got the passing down work and reeled in 4 receptions and a receiving TD last week.

Elite Plays: Landry

Secondary:GPP: Allen, Tannehill, Parker

 

12/6 4:25 ET Carolina -7 At New Orleans 49.5

The red hot Panthers head out to New Orleans in one of the highest O/U games of the week. The expectation here is that the Panthers will put a road beat down on the Saints. This will be one of the more popular games to target this week for DFS purposes.

Newton is having an MVP season right now both in real life and for fantasy football purposes. Now he gets to face the NFL’s worst defensive team. Everyone will be on Cam and Olsen in what will likely be the highest ownership stack of the week. Jonathan Stewart is also in a good spot here. The Panthers should be playing with a lead in this one and that type of game flow is ideal for an RB like Stewart. It doesn’t hurt that the Saints haven’t been able to stop the run at all this season.

The Saints come off a beating by the Houston Defense and now they have to face a top 5 all around Panthers defense. There isn’t a whole lot to like as far as targeting the Saints offense for DFS purposes this week. The Panthers are top 10 vs the run and pass. The entire Saints O is relegated to GPP only status for me.

Elite Plays: Newton, Olsen

Secondary/GPP Only: Stewart, Carolina D, Cooks

 

12/6 1:00 ET Seattle -1 At Minnesota 41.5

The Seahawks travel to Minnesota in what Vegas believes will be the lowest scoring game of the week. Both of these teams are solid defensively and the low O/U here is a major red flag that says avoid this game.

Russel Wilson exploded in a good spot last week. This game on the road with the expected defensive slug-fest type game flow does not set up as well for Wilson. The most interesting player on Seattle for DFS purposes this week is Rawls. He continued to play well last week and his salary remains reasonable across the DFS sites.

For Minnesota it starts and ends with AP. This is obviously a tougher spot facing Seattle’s solid run-stopping unit. Move the needle on AP from Chalk play to contrarian GPP play this week. There are better values in better spots all over the place this week but AP is playable.

Elite Plays: None

Secondary/GPP: Rawls, AP

 

12/6 1:00 ET Arizona -5.5 At St. Louis 43

The Cardinals are heavy road favorites in this game which Vegas sees as fairly low scoring. The Rams and Cardinals are both solid defensive teams particularly versus the pass.

Arizona faces a top 3 ranked Rams pass defense on the road this week which diminishes expectations for Palmer and his pass catchers. Fine by me! I’m much more excited to roll out new Cardinals starting RB David Johnson. Injuries to Chris Johnson and Ellington have thrust David into a volume role for the Cardinals. Ellington’s status for next week is questionable right now. Regardless, David Johnson has already been declared the starter and I like him even more if Ellington sits.

There isn’t much to like about the Rams this week or the spot they are in. Gurley is great and all but the Cardinals are tough to run on and the Rams project to be playing from behind for the majority of this game. I’m passing on the Rams offense completely.

Elite Plays: David Johnson, Arizona Defense

Secondary/GPP: None

 

12/6 1:00 ET At Tampa Bay -2 Atlanta 46

I talk about this all the time on the blog and in our slack forums but I love it when Vegas Projects games to be close and high scoring. This one fits the bill. Divisional game featuring two teams not known for playing tough defense.

When you think of Doug Martin this season you probably think he’s having a comeback type season. It’s true but do you know that last time he scored a TD? It was week 5. Granted he got three that day but for some reason he hasn’t been able to get in the endzone since. I’m not sure why that is but the stat is interesting. At WR Evans continues to get a good number of targets on a weekly basis but has not been particularly efficient. This happens to be a great spot for Evans however as Vincent Jackson should draw shutdown CB Desmond Trufant for the most part.

Atlanta should get back Freeman for this game and they need him in a big way. The Buc’s run defense has been stingy for the most part this year but Freeman is a matchup proof dual threat back. I’m concerned about Coleman cutting a bit in to his volume of touches however and as the top priced RB on most of the sites I think there are better values. I do like Julio here for a bounce back game. Julio has been money all season and the Bucs have been more vulnerable through the air than on the ground. If this game becomes a shootout then Julio should be the primary beneficiary. I like the idea of creating a GPP stack around this game that includes Julio and Evans. Jacob Tamme also makes for an acceptable TE punt this week assuming Hankerson is out again.

Elite Plays: Julio Jones, Evans, Freeman, Doug Martin (kind of)

Secondary/GPP: Tamme, Winston

 

12/6 1:00 ET NY Jets -1.5 At NY Giants 45

This is a game I’m extremely excited about this week. My Jets take on their cross town rivals in what is technically a road game but really neutral for fantasy purposes. The line is close and the O/U is above average for the week.

The Giants are not a very good defensive team and they are vulnerable through the air and on the ground. The entire Jet offense from Fitzpatrick to Ivory are in play for this one. Assuming Vegas is right and this game is a close one there should be fantasy scoring opportunities from start to finish. Since the Giants do have one quality corner in Amukamura and he should be shadowing Brandon (I’m too busy doing Inside the NFL to worry about football) Marshall, Decker could see some extra targets.

The Giants are interesting because they lack a running game and therefore do all their scoring through the air. OBJ is obviously a stud and he will be shadowed by Revis all game. A few weeks ago we all avoided Hopkins because Revis was going to be covering him and Hopkins went off for a huge day. In a sense the Jets strength is also a flaw. Since Revis is awesome they generally don’t double up on the opposing WR1. That leads to more targets for said WR1 and if they can beat Revis they have a big day. The Jets have been much weaker at the WR2 spot which gives Giants WR2 Randle some sleeper appeal this week.

Elite Plays: Marshall, Fitzpatrick, OBJ, Ivory, Decker

Secondary/GPP: Randle  

12/6 4:05 ET Denver -4.5 At San Diego 43.5

The Broncos are coming off a huge win against the Patriots and are headed to face a San Diego team that should be close to giving up on the season. The Chargers defense is atrocious and their passing offense has been sputtering due to the volume of injuries they have dealt with this season.

The Broncos have looked better on Offense with Brock under center these past few games. Last week DeMaryius Thomas looked awful and Sanders did most of the damage. They also featured CJ Anderson a smidge more then Hillman in the run game. I’m not a big fan of RBBC’s for DFS purposes and this one is a true RBBC. That said, both Anderson and Hillman are really cheap so if one goes off and you nail it that can be a real salary saver in a GPP lineup.

The Chargers are in a tough spot here. The Broncos Defense is really solid and should be able to shut down Rivers and his passing attack. I’m fading the Chargers completely in this one.

Elite Plays: Thomas, Sanders, Broncos Defense

Secondary/GPP: Brock, Hillman, Anderson

 

12/6 4:05 ET Kansas City -3 At Oakland 44

The Chiefs make the trip to California to take on the scrappy Raiders. Kansas City has been up and down as far as their defensive play goes so far this season. For the most part they seem to defend the run better than they defend the pass. The Raiders Defense is average to below average in most categories.

The big question for this game is which RB will the Chiefs feature? C. West has been fantastic when he has played this season and the Chiefs coaching staff seems to love him. Last week when West was injured, Spencer Ware stepped in and had a great day against a tough Bills defense. As of this moment it isn’t clear what the situation will be but whomever is the starter has a great matchup. Maclin is the only other Chiefs player worth cash game consideration in this one. People will mention Kelce and the Raiders rep as being awful vs TE’s but Kelce hasn’t had the type of ceiling this season to justify his high salary point. Kelce has been consistently providing a 9 point floor on Draftkings but his best games outside of one or two outliers have been in the mid teens.

For the Raiders this is a game that should feature more passing than running considering the opposing defense and likely game flow. Last week rookie WR Seth Roberts emerged from out of nowhere and went off for over 100 yards and a huge game. Cooper also put up a nice number and has realistically been very consistent all season long. Crabtree has been fine this season but his ceiling is very limited as he hasn’t surpassed 50 total yards in a while. Cooper remains the most trustworthy option in the Raiders passing attack and makes for an excellent stack with Carr.

Elite Plays: Carr, Cooper, West/Ware

Secondary/GPP: Kelce, Roberts (GPP Only)

 

12/6 4:25 ET At New England -9.5 Philadelphia 48.5

The Gronkless Patriots take on the talentless Eagles at home in a game where the Patriots are huge favorites. I really like this game for DFS purposes.

For the Patriots the lack of weapons means that the few play-makers they have healthy right now have excellent outlooks. Amendola and Lafell should be solid plays for low salary in all formats this week. TE Chandler should also see some extra looks with Gronk on the sidelines and makes for a fantastic value play on the DFS sites where he is going for minimum salary. Patriots Defense at home is a top DFS play as well. The last time Sanchez played against the Patriots he earned the buttfumbler nick name. Belicheck has Sanchez’s number and I’m confident that this game will feature some turnovers. If all goes according to plan we should see a healthy dose of Blount in the second half of what projects to be a blowout game.

I can’t see targeting any of the Eagles offensive players in this one. Maybe Matthews for some garbage time heroics? Probably not though.

Elite Plays: Amendola, LaFell, Patriots D

Secondary/GPP: Blount, Chandler

12/6 8:30 ET At Pittsburgh -6.5 Indianapolis 49

The Sunday Night Hammer game features everyone’s favorite team to target for DFS purposes in the Steelers. I’m writing this with the assumption that Big Ben will play in the game. This is a home game for the Steelers and I expect them to dominate offensively. Vegas agrees and the line here is one of the highest of the week. The key to this one will be if the Colts can put up enough offense to keep the game close. If they can then the fantasy points explosion should be glorious.

For the Steelers I wouldn’t expect a repeat of last week when Wheaton beasted. The fish will be all over Wheaton this week but that really was a matchup based game where the Seahawks had their best corners taking out Brown and Bryant. This week I expect one of or both of both Brown and Bryant to beast.  Deangelo Williams is also in play as always.

The key to this one is the Colts keeping things competitive. Last week Father Time aka Matt Hasselbeck looked great and both Hilton and Moncrief had big days. The Colts have no ground game to speak of so if they are scoring it will happen through the air. Both Hilton and Moncrief are solid plays both in cash and GPP in this spot facing a bottom ranked Pittsburgh pass defense. Remember what Baldwin did to them last week?

Elite Plays: Ben, Brown, Bryant, Hilton, Moncrief, D Williams

Secondary/GPP: Fleener, Hasselback

 

Monday Night Football Line
12/7 8:30 ET At Washington -4 Dallas 42

On Monday night we get a game featuring a close line and low O/U. Neither of these teams are great defensively.

Dallas is without Romo for the rest of the season so it’s Cassel or bust I guess. The Redskins have been bad across the board defensively and I suppose Dez could be usable here as a contrarian GPP play. The reality is that Cole Beasley has been the WR that has benefited the most from Cassel’s noodle arm. Darren McFadden maintains his workhorse RB role this week and has an excellent matchup facing the soft Redskins rush defense. I like that he is coming off a long rest and he could be the Monday Night Hammer if things go as planned.

The Redskins offense is more interesting in this one. Reed has been virtually matchup proof when healthy and makes for a strong Monday Night play. DeSean Jackson has also been solid the past two games and is playable here as well. Dallas has been solid vs the pass so far but D Jax only needs one big play to hit value. Cousins is usable in this situation as well but makes for more of a GPP contrarian play than anything else.

Elite Plays: McFadden, Reed

Secondary/GPP: D Jax, Dez, Cousins

 

Final Notes

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