The Geek’s Week 5 Daily Fantasy Football Vegas Lines Analysis & Player Picks for Fanduel and Draftkings DFS

Welcome back for another week of Daily Fantasy Football action. There is a ton to cover this week so bear with me. It starts with another epic Monday Night Sweat in week 4 that left me 9 spots out from a trip to Atlantis Bahamas for the DK Fantasy Football Championships. We also had a weekend of controversy regarding a data leak from Draftkings which I will weigh in on. I’m also introducing a new DFS site this week which will qualify new users for a FREE VIP DFS Army Memberships for the rest of this season.

Speaking of the DFS Army we ran a logo/avatar contest in the forums this week and had some fantastic submissions. I want to thank everyone that took the time to put a logo together for the contest. They were all awesome! In the end our own Nick Steig put together one so bad ass that all the others paled in comparison. Congrats to Nick as he won a free VIP DFS Army Membership for the 2016 season with this avatar!

If you haven’t already done so check out our DFS Strategy Vault Content below. These are links to some articles that cover everything from lineup construction methodology to bankroll management. If you are new to DFS these articles are a must read and make up the backbone of the methods I’ve used to grow my bankroll from a couple of hundred dollar initial deposit to 5 figure numbers.

1. Daily Fantasy Football Winning Strategy Guide
2. DFS Strategies – Reducing Risk while Increasing Reward
3. Multi-Entry GPP Lineup Strategies in Daily Fantasy Sports
4. Can Daily Fantasy Sports Become a Full Time Job
5. How to Use The Vegas Lines When Constructing Daily Fantasy Football Lineups
6. The Geek’s Fundamental Rules of Daily Fantasy Football 
7. Taking Advantage of the Salary Cap Algorithm 
8. You’re Not That Good At Making Daily Fantasy Football Lineups
9. The Science Behind Successful GPP Lineup Construction

Epic Monday Night Sweat

This was a low scoring week across the board for fantasy purposes. That’s what happens when most of the high priced studs bomb out. Julio, ODB, Cobb, Sanders, Brown, etc all were disasters this week. Luckily for me and the #DFSArmy crew we were all over Devonta Freeman, Karlos Williams and DeAndre Hopkins this week which softened the blow of a week filled with landmines. In the three sample cash lineups I sent out this week I had the Freeman/Williams combo at RB for all three and DeAndre Hopkins in two of the three. There were some duds in there like most of the TE’s not named Bennett or Clay as well as Latavius Murrray who was a big disappointment. Anyway the whole point of this sections was to discuss an epic Monday Night Sweat.

This was a lineup I used in the Draftkings Championship Qualifier. That contest featured 32K entrants and the top prize was a trip to Atlantis Bahamas and a chance to compete for a 3 Million Dollar top prize in the championships. It’s been a goal of mine to get in to one of these ever since I finished in second place last season in a similar contest. Unfortunately it was not to be in this case. Going in to the monday night game I was 19 points out of first place with Seattle Defense yet to play. Seattle put up a respectable 9 which was not enough to get there. I did use this same lineup to finish in 190th place out of $575K entrants in the 1.5 Million Dollar contest which is great but I really wanted this win. Lets take a quick look at the lineup.

QB: Rivers – Rivers was at home last week in what seemed like a decent spot facing a Cleveland Defense that isn’t good at all. Rivers was more of a GPP Only play for me in that I didn’t really feel certain that Cleveland could make a game of it. It turns out they made it competitive which made all the difference.

Rule of Thumb – In Daily Fantasy we want to target games that are competitive rather then looking for blowouts!!! This is a major mistake that new players make. They look at games where a team is a heavy favorite and think that team is ideal to target in DFS. That’s not the case.


RB – I used the Freeman/Karlos combo in most of my entries this week. The floor was high and the ceiling was through the roof. It was a no brainer.

WR’s – Obviously I used the Rivers-Allen stack here which worked out well. I mentioned earlier that I was heavy in to Hopkins as well this week. I didn’t think Atlanta had a CB that could cover him and he has been seeing massive targets every week this season with no real alternatives for the Texans in the passing game. Took Fitz and Cobb as well with mixed results.

TE – The TE position is one of the least consistent in fantasy football. I generally try to use a mic of a few players I like each week and cross my fingers. Clay was on the radar because he’d been targeted heavily over the first few weeks, plus the Giants were bad vs the TE position so far this season. The fact that Watkins wasn’t playing for Buffalo meant more targets to go around as well.

Def – This was one lineup where I had enough salary left over to afford Seattle. They were in a good spot at home facing a mediocre offense that had been turnover prone all season.

VIP DFS Army Membership Update

If you are a regular reader here on the blog or the APP you probably already know that we have a VIP Membership” program where on top of the weekly column and strategy content users get my specific player picks for Fanduel and Draftkings broken down in to Cash, Chalk, GPP Only and ALL IN Plays for each site. In addition there is our slack chat forum where we have share player picks, bankroll management tips, injury reports and percentage owned stats (more on this later). The price for the VIP Membership for this season is $40 but we also give memberships free for new Fanduel and Draftkings accounts that register and deposit via our links. This week I am adding another site to the mix.

Draftpot
I’ve been checking out this newer DFS site for the past few weeks and it’s legit. I love it when newer sites are well funded and going all out for new accounts. Why? Because they have a shitload of overlay to take advantage of. More on that in a minute. Draftpot is a slightly different take on DFS because alongside traditional salary cap based DFS they also have no cap contests. Basically its pick whatever players you like best that week and see how it goes. There is an advantage for players well versed in matchup analysis in that type of contest. They also have traditional salary cap based contests but there too the structure is interesting. They seem to calculate salaries based on that players average fantasy points per game rather then using an algorithm. This too creates an advantage for well researched players. Finally its back to the overlay. Your best chance at winning a GPP or cashing in one will generally come when you join contests that don’t fill. If a GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool) contest does not fill the payout remains the same. So if you join a 10,000 person GPP which pays out the top 2000 finishers you need a top 20% score to cash. If that same contest only nets 7000 entries then in reality you only need a top 30% score to cash. Draftpot is awash with overlay right not so the +EV situation is very good. There’s more coming though so bear with me. In speaking with their rep we were able to get some extra goodies for users that register via our link here.

Register For Draftpot with a minimum $25 deposit and get

1. A 100% deposit match up to $1000 with an 8% rake back – In essence this means you will be playing with no rake for as long as you have “match” left in your account. (I advise bumping up your initial deposit as high as you are comfortable with to take advantage of the match. You can always withdraw the finds but the match stays)

1. All new accounts get free entry in to a $10,000 prize pool contest

1. FREE VIP Membership to the DFS Army ($40 Value) for the rest of the 2015 season. If you were thinking of joining but didn’t like the idea of paying for a service that’s cool. I’d rather you use your cash to play DFS. Take that $40 you were thinking about paying and use it to open a new Draftpot account. You get the VIP Membership free!

1. Current DFS Army VIP Members get 1/2 off their membership for the 2016 season. Lets face it. We’ve been kicking ass and having a great time this season. You are coming back again next season for sure anyway. Use some of that cash to check out a cool new DFS site instead of giving it to me. I’ll be fine.

CLICK HERE TO REGISTER FOR A NEW DRAFTPOT ACCOUNT AND GET ALL THE GOODIES
OK I’VE REGISTERED FOR A NEW DRAFTPOT ACCOUNT AND MADE AN INITIAL DEPOSIT. NOW WHAT?
Email me at [email protected] with your Draftpot user name. Make sure you let me know if you are taking advantage of the FREE VIP Membership for the rest of this season offer or the 1/2 off membership for next season offer!!!!!! Please do not email me asking if your existing Draftpot account qualifies. This offer is only good if you register via the above link.

DraftKings – Fanduel Controversey


I’m going to be brief on this. This morning driving in to work every radio station, even non-sports related stations were talking about this “controversy”. I got texts from casual fantasy football friends asking me about this. Its a full on media frenzy. Last weekend a Draftkings employee that writes articles in their “Playbook” DFS Strategy magazine had access to player percentages that they theoretically could have used to gain an advantage making lineups on Fanduel. That employee happened to win a big contest on Fanduel that same weekend and people blew their tops. The thing is percentage owned data for Fanduel is readily accessible regardless, We have a channel on our slack group where players post Fanduel ownership data from the Thursday contests regularly. It’s not going to cause someone to win a big contest. Still DFS is blowing up right now and the media will giddily run with any story designed to take it down a notch. Even before this the Washington Post was coming out with weekly articles about how its “impossible to win” etc. I’m living proof that they are full of shit. In addition slimy politicians are already clamoring for “more regulation” which is just code for greasing their pockets by the way. In the end of the day this “controversy” is much adieu about nothing.  Both Fanduel and Draftkings as well as all the other DFS sites do not allow their employees to play on the sites they work for. Ownership data is also very different between Draftkings and Fanduel due to different points systems and salary structures, Both Fanduel and Draftkings are big businesses well on their way to valuations in the hundreds of millions of dollars. The last thing they would ever do is try to cheat their users because doing so would be terrible for their business. The people I’ve seen bitching about this issue in forums are simply angry and looking for ways to excuse why they aren’t profitable players. Instead of bitching about it they should join the DFS Army and start banking some cash!

VEGAS LINES FOR WEEK 5

Thursday Game

Buffalo -2.5 At Tennessee 42.5

If I asked you which of these two teams is ranked higher vs the run you’d probably say Buffalo. You’d be wrong. Both are really solid but the Titans are actually #4 vs the run so far this season. I’m not sure how much of that is because they are good and how much is because with the 30th ranked pass defense teams simply haven’t utilized the run against them as much as they might have otherwise. Either way Buffalo’s RB situation is mess. McCoy is out for a while and Karlos Williams is in concussion protocal. Enter Boobie Dixon. If Boobie gets the start he is playable at minimum salary across all the DFS sites. I like Buffalo to bounce back in this game on the road. That said I don’t really trust any of their individual pass catchers in this spot.

For the Titans Kendall Wright has quietly had a solid though somewhat inconsistent start to the season. He has 2 games with 23+ fantasy points on Draftkings with a 3 point game sandwitched in between. He makes for a decent play at home this week. The Tennessee RB situation is one of the ugliest in the league and an absolute avoid. I also wouldn’t trust Mariotta outside of a GPP flier.

Elite Plays: Tyrod Taylor
Secondary/GPP Kendall Wright, Buffalo Defense, Boobie Dixon


 At Baltimore -6.5 Cleveland 43.5

It was obvious to anyone looking at the Ravens going in to this season that it was going to be a rough ride. They were relying on an ancient WR and old RB to carry the load and didn’t seem to have any fall back plan. They drafted a WR in the 1st round that was considered by many to be a bit of a project or a deep threat speedster instead of going after a WR1 type player. I watched the game last week and once Smitty came out the only Baltimore WR that seemed to belong in the NFL was Kamar Aiken. Unfortunately Cleveland has a pretty good CB in Joe Haden who though struggling this season is probably good enough to shut Aiken down. Manning the WR2 spot is probably going to fall to Marlon Brown. Normally with a shutdown corner on Aiken we would naturally shift to the WR2 but I don’t trust Brown at all. Cleveland does have a terrible run defense and chances are if the Ravens are winning this game they will do it via their defense and run game. Forsett is playable here even though I don’t love RB’s that get pulled in the red zone.

For Cleveland there isn’t anything to like about their offense. I’m certainly not ready to trust Duke Johnson after one big game. I don’t like any of their tiny WR’s and I don’t like their QB particularly on the road. Sorry Browns fans. Your team sucks this season.

Elite Plays: None
Secondary/GPP: Aiken, Forsett, Baltimore Defense


At Atlanta -7.5 Washington 47.5

Chalk alert! The Atlanta Defense has been en fuego to start the season. The line of Washington as a heavy favorite sets up well for another big Devonta game. By now everyone is on Devonta so ownership levels should be through the roof. If you were looking for a reason to fade him perhaps the fact that the Redskins Defense is #1 in the league will give you an excuse. Then again maybe the fact that the Skins are #1 against the run will mean that he won;t be as heavily owned as I think. Damnit DFS is hard. Someone get Ethan Haskill on the… oh forget it. Anyway proceed with a bit more caution this week. If the Redskins were somehow able to make this a competitive game the outlook for  Julio would be through the roof here. Playing at home against a team that’s tough to run on is still a nice scenario for any WR. My preseason favorite, Leonard Hankerson, had a nice day last week in the blowout but I wouldn’t count on him for consistency just yet.

For the Redskins there isn’t a whole lot to like about this matchup. Jordan Reed is out and I doubt we see him again this season. He is the posterboy for too many concussions and shouldn’t be playing in the NFL anymore. I hope his doctors or handlers have the balls to tell him whats up. Atlanta is rankes 31st against the run but who can you trust in Washington’s three headed RB attack? Chris Thompson seems to be the passing downs back for the Skins and could be a very deep sleeper if the game flow turns into an early blowout. I don’t trust it and will be avoiding the Washington backfield. Pierre Garcon is playable here and has some Draftkings PPR appeal.

Elite Plays: Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman
Secondary/GPP Plays: Pierre Garcon, Hankerson

At Kansas City -9.5 Chicago 45

If ever there was a setup for an ALL IN play on Jamal Charles this is it. Chicago has been somewhat stingy against the run this season and they did shut down Lactation Consultant Murray last week but this is Jamal Charles at home in a game the Chiefs are heavily favored in. Jeremy Maclin has heated up of late. He and Travis Kelce are both usable as well in this one.

I’m really surprised at the line on this game. KC hasn’t been that great to start the season and the Bears aren’t all that bad particularly with Cutler at the helm. Cutler is priced at near minimum salary on Draftkings and makes for a nice value play. If Alshon gets the start they make for a nice stack. KC has been pretty good against opposing TE’s ranking 6th overall so proceed with caution when it comes to Bennett this week.

Elite Plays: Jamal Charles
Secondary/GPP Plays: Forte, Alshon, Cutler, Maclin, Smith, Kelce


At Philadelphia -5 New Orleans 49


In daily fantasy football the thing we look for most of all are close and high scoring games. That’s the holy grail of match-ups. This game has all the makings of a high scoring affair. The Saints defense has been surprisingly stingy so far this season but the sample size has been small and they did face Tampa and the Weeden led Cowboys so far. In an odd twist both of these teams have ugly three headed RB situations which are best to avoid in DFS. I also don’t trust Brees to give enough targets to any one WR to make them a safe play. Brandin Cooks salary is way too high across the DFS sites for a player that has yet to score a TD ot pass 100 yards in a game this season. I suppose he is due for a big game but GPP only for me.

For the Eagles, Bradford to Matthews is the only viable weekly play. I like them again at home this week. I’m hoping Matthews will be low owned in GPP’s after last week’s dud. Only Ethan Haskill knows for sure.

Elite Plays: Bradford, Matthews
Secondary/GPP Plays: Brees, Ingram

At Green Bay -9.5 St. Louis 46.5

Anytime Green Bay is playing at home their offense needs to be on the radar. Vegas has them as heavy favorites for good reason in this game. The Rams D looked really good against the Cardinals last week and they may be coming in to their own right now. Still it’s tough to stop Rodgers and company at home. In my perfect Fantasy Football world the Rams would make this a close competetive game and force Rodgers and company to keep the foot pressed firmly on the gas pedal. Vegas doesn’t see it that way. Last week Eddie Lacy had a respectable 90 yards on 18 carries with 2 receptions in what was a lower scoring close game. If I’m paying up at RB this week I’m probably reaching for Charles or Bell. I love Rodgers, Cobb and Jones as always. TY Montgomery once again makes for a risky minimum salary WR punt.

For the Rams I don’t trust any of their pass catchers this week or in general. I’d like to see Quick emerge as a WR 1 but it certainly isn’t likely to happen at Green Bay. Todd “The Hurley” Gurley man was unleashed last week and put up a massive 146 yards on 19 carries. I love his cheap price and large workload for fantasy purposes. I normally might shy away from an RB in a game where the gameflow is projected to be catchup mode style but in this case I’m not completely convinced that the Rams would sit him in favor of  Benny Cunningham if they got down. Regardless the opportunity and upside are there for Gurley as is the cheap salary.

Elite Plays: Rodgers, Cobb, Jones
Secondary/GPP Gurley, Packers Defense, Lacy


At Cincinnati -3 Seattle 44


The best thing about this line and this game is that it projects to be a close one. Seattle is top 5 this season against the run and pass. They are weak against the TE position and this sets up as a sneaky spot to roll out Tyler Eifert.

For Seattle this is a tricky spot on the road. The Bengals aren’t ranked all that high so far this season defensively and could be exploited. I’m just not all that confident in who the Seahawks would use to attack the Bengals. It’s obvious that Graham will not be seeing enough targets in games this season to be anything more then a hit or miss TE. I’m not paying top dollar for those odds. Doug Baldwin has also been hit or miss and it may be worth a dice roll. I think the best way to get exposire to this game is using Wilson without a stack. He scores points in so many ways that the stack just isn’t necessary.

Elite Plays: Russel Wilson
Secondary/GPP Only Green, Eifert, Seattle Defense

Arizona -3 At Detroit 44


Here we have another game that projects as a close and relatively low scoring affair. Detroit was a top notch Defense last season but it doesn’t seem to have carried over. They are currently ranked below average versus the run and the pass. This sets up as a nice day for the Arizona pass catchers. I don’t love targeting players on the road as a general rule but Fitzgerald has been almost match-up proof to start the season. He makes for a high floor cash play with upside in this one. I’m not ready to trust the Arizona running backs at this point. Ellington should be back for this one and I don’t see enough touches to produce a big day for any one of them.

For Detroit they will probably game plan to attack the Cardinals #4 ranked pass defense by running it early and often. Abdullah is a sneaky play here assuming Bell sits out again.  Abdullah got 13 carries versus one for Riddick last week as Seattle. One troubling trend is that Detroit continues to use Riddick in the hurry up role even though it seems more suited to Abdullah’s skill set. Perhaps he isn’t up to speed yet as far as protections go. Megatron remains an under-performing stud due for a breakout game. He should be low owned in GPP;s and would make an interesting contrarian play.

Elite Plays: Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson
Secondary/GPP Abdullah




New England -8 At Dallas 49.5

Anytime a team is favored by 8 points on the road you know they are probably playing well. Brady and co. have been unstoppable to start the season and Dallas’ 30th ranked run defense probably isn’t the team to do it. This game sports the highest O/U of the week’s slate so we should obviously be looking for players to target here. I loves me some Gronk in this spot for no particular reason other then I always loves me some Gronk. The guy is as matchup proof as it gets. Brady and Edelman are both also in play as always, The real question in this game is which Patriot RB is worth rostering. If you agree with Vegas and see a blowout I’d say it looks like a Blount game. In the blowout win against the Jags two weeks ago Dion Lewis got just 8 carries and 5 receptions. Blount saw 18 carries and 1 reception. If the game stays close it is probably better to go with Lewis here. Neither is a very safe cash game play because they are both so dependent on gameflow.

For Dallas there isn’t all that much to like in this one. The loss of Dunbar probably means more work for Joe Randle in the passing game which is a good thing. Chances are there will be some garbage time goodness here but Terrance Williams has been so disappointing so far that it’s hard to trust him.

Elite Plays: Brady, Gronk Edelman
Secondary/GPP  Randle, Terrance Williams, Blount, Lewis


Denver -5.5 At Oakland 43.5

Denver’s defense is legit. Oakland’s is not. I doubt the Raiders will be able to generate much offense through the air going against Denver’s elite cornerback tandem. I also don’t see them stopping Peyton and friends. I’m avoiding the Oakland Offense completely in this one. Putting Amari Cooper in my back pocket for use on another day.

For Denver the usual suspects are all in play. I’d love to know which if any Oakland RB will do well this week but I have no clue. Hillman has looked better then Anderson throughout this season and could unseat him for the starting role. I’m avoiding this situation as well.

Elite Plays: Peyton, DT, Sanders, Broncos Defense
Secondary/GPP Hillman




At NY Giants -7 San Francisco 43

Did anyone else see that ridiculous one handed catch OBJ made? Which one you ask? What’s the difference. This dood is better with one hand then most NFL WR’s are with two hands! Now he gets a home game against a West Coast team that is allergic to playing defense. Eli to OBJ is a prime stack this week! Unfortunately thats about it as far as reliable fantasy goodness goes for the Giants. Their RB situation is a disaster for fantasy purposes. Randle and Donnell are hit or miss GPP fliers at best on a weekly basis.

For the 49ers the only player that I find even mildly playable is Carlos Hyde. That guy has some talent. I’m worried that the gameflow may get away from Hyde in this one as the line indicates a fairly nice lead for the Giants at home.

**Fun Side Note – I was actually invited by Draftkings to attend the Giants game with in their box this Sunday night. I had heard that they occasionally invite players to games and such whenever they have event in their area but this is the first time they reached out to me. Such a cool thing for them to do! You can bet your ass I’ll have a ton of OBJ going in my lineups if only to have something to root for Sunday Night!

Elite Plays: Eli Manning, OBJ, Geek Getting Drunk With The Draftkings Crew
Secondary/GPP Plays: Hyde, Giants Defense, Geek’s Wife Driving Us Home From The Game Due To Geek’s Intoxication

At San Diego -3 Pittsburgh 45

For the last game of the slate we travel to San Diego where two for what Vegas believes will be a close and high scoring game. The Chargers defense has been interesting to start the season. They aren’t good so don’t get me wrong there but they have been interesting. They are currently ranked #1 vs the pass and 31st against the run. Pittsburgh has a pretty good Running Back in LeVeon Bell that should feast against the one of the leagues worst run defenses. On the flipside I’m not sure paying up top dollar for Antonio Brown, facing a top pass defense, with Vick as his QB is such a good idea.

On the flipside Pittsburgh has actually been pretty good against the run this season ranking 3rd overall. Thats “Fine By ME” (Ross Voice) because I never know which Chargers RB to play anyway. Hopefully that stout Steeler Run Defense pushes even more targets to Keenan Allen and the crew. This game also features the return of Antonio Gates at TE. The Steelers are at the bottom of the league at stopping TE’s and Gates could be in for a monster debut. I do have a sense that the emergence of Ladarius Green will put a bit of a cap on Gates upside in this one and moving forward this season so temper expectations.

Elite Plays: LeVeon Bell, Philip Rivers, Keenan Allen
Secondary/GPP Plays: Antonio Gates, Woodhead

Some Final Tidbits: