Welcome back for week 3 of the daily fantasy football season! Week two was a wild ride filled with land mines where ever you turned. The RB position was almost an across the board bust with is highly unusual. Still from adversity often great things can emerge. That will be a theme in this week’s column.
If you haven’t already done so please take the time to read my “2015 Season Introduction” column which covers a bit about who I am and what we are doing here. It also has links to all of the strategy content and info about how to get a FREE Premium VIP Membership to The Geek’s DFS Army.
The Good
It was an intense Monday night sweat for yours truly. I targeted Donte Moncrief and Eric Decker heavily in my lineups and it paid off Monday night. This is the lineup I used to finish 350th out of 500K entrants in the Draftkings Millionaire Maker contest
This was fun because it was my first real Monday Night Sweat of the season. I used this lineup in a number of contests so it really paid off across the board. The crazy thing was that I wasn’t feeling very good about how my week was going as the Monday night game approached. It goes to show that you never know when a player will go off.
Dissecting The Lineup
A big part of this blog is about teaching readers how to construct a winning lineup. If you’ve read through the Intro and looked over our DFS Strategy Vault articles you already know this. I’ll go over a bit of the thought process I used making this one.
QB-WR – I started this lineup off with a Dalton to Green to Eifert stack. Stacking a QB with two of their pass catchers is very much a GPP Only strategy. When it works it works well. The stats on this are covered in the books we send as part of the DFS Army VIP Membeship program. A.J. Green actually disappointed with that 13.5 point performance. Still I liked the play for a team at home in what could have been a back and forth shootout.
RB – I was suprised to see how low ownership Deangelo Williams was this week. I called him out as an elite play here on the blog last week and DFS Army VIP members that get the newsletter saw that I had targeted him as an ALL IN play this week. He got a ton of looks week one for the Steelers and we love RB’s at home in games where their teams are favored(**Spoiler Alert – Check out Jonathan Stewart in week 3) ! It’s a basic rule of thumb for lineup construction. In the second RB spot I used Woodhead. He was another ALL IN play for week 2 and paired up well with the Dalton stack. When the Chargers are in comeback mode they use Woodhead in their hurry up. If the Dalton-Eifert-Green stack was working then chances are that the Chargers would be down and trying to come back.
WR’s – Antonio Brown is an every week stud regardless of matchup but I particularly love him at home while Martavis Bryant is out of commission. The Edelman play was about my thought that Rex Ryan would sell out to stop Gronkowski from Gronsmashing the crap out of the Bills opening the middle of the field for Edelman to do his thing. Finally we have Moncrief. I love it when teams have a shutdown corner that shadows the opposing #1 receiver because you can normally count on the #1 WR to pick up that slack. Earlier in the week TY Hilton was considered unlikely to play in this game. I highlighted Moncrief in the Vegas Lines Analysis here on the blog and as a top player pick in the newsletter for just that reason. Revis was going to shut down Andre pushing all the targets to Moncrief. Incidentally the effect was similar on the Colts with the Vontae Davis factor. I shied away from Marshal this week and pivoted to Decker. It worked perfectly. If Davis and Decker don’t both go down with injuries later in the game I had another Decker lineup flying up the boards as well.
Def – I went with the Panthers at home facing an inexperienced QB in Mallett. I try to stick to Defenses playing at home for the most part and this matchup had as much potential upside as any this week.
The Bad
There were landmines galore out there in week two and they burned a lot of folks. Sam Bradford was a chalk play in a game with a 55 O/U that tanked. Virtually every RB not named AP, Lewis, D Willz or Woodhead basically sucked. Most of the obvious Team D choices also disappointed.
The Ugly
I was going to mention my ALL IN play on Adam Vinitieri at K on Fanduel here which wound up costing me a 17% lost on my investment there this week but there is something more important to cover. This was a tough week for a lot of folks particularly those that don’t use a wide swath of diversified lineups across all contest types. One of the DFS Pros I follow, Peter “CSURAM88” Jennings called it the most losing weekend of his NFL DFS career. That’s how it goes. Even the great ones are wrong 40% of the time. It’s important to understand that as much prognostication and evaluation as we do it’s impossible to always be right. There will be winning weeks and losing weeks and keeping a calm and even keel is important for both situations.
There is a DFS term called “Tilting” which is what happens when you have a losing weekend then go completely bonkers the next chance you get throwing all bankroll management lessons out the window in a high risk attempt to make it back. DON’T DO THAT! Remember the reasons you started playing fantasy football and DFS. It’s not just about winning or losing. This is supposed to be fun. It can get your heart pounding. It gives you a reason to watch every game of the week and love every second of it. It gives you a reason to scream Gronk Smash!!! every time Gronk smashes one even though you are a Jets fan and are supposed to hate the Patriots. Most important is it is an excuse to follow the sport we love even more closely then we did when we were just playing in season long leagues.
One more point on this then I will move on. You should approach DFS in a similar manner as you approach season long leagues in terms of the investment. Start your bankroll with as much money as you are comfortable losing that season. That could be anything from $50 to $1000 or more but for most it’s somewhere between $100 and $500. Then the initial goal should be to make it through that season without losing money or up a bit. If your goal is to win a million dollars you will probably be disappointed. This is about having fun alongside the possibility of a big score. If you stay disciplined and follow all of the strategy and bankroll management advice here you will have a great chance to turn a profit this season and beyond. Just play within your means and don’t take it too seriously.
Strategy Talk – Email Q and A
I get a lot of emails like this throughout the week and I try to answer whenever possible. Here is one from this week that I wanted to share mostly because I don’t like writing the same stuff over and over:
Q
Hey Kevin,
GREEN = Target players from this offense aggressively
White – Neutral – Not a situation to avoid. Use these teams to find lower owned studs for GPP differentiation as well as special
| 9/24 8:25 ET | At NY Giants | -4 | Washington | 44 |
| 9/27 1:00 ET | Pittsburgh | -1 | At St. Louis | 47 |
| 9/27 1:00 ET | At Minnesota | -2.5 | San Diego | 45 |
| 9/27 1:00 ET | At Houston | -6.5 | Tampa Bay | 40.5 |
| 9/27 1:00 ET | At NY Jets | -2.5 | Philadelphia | 47 |
| 9/27 1:00 ET | At Carolina | -10 | New Orleans | 43 |
| 9/27 1:00 ET | At New England | -13.5 | Jacksonville | 47.5 |
| 9/27 1:00 ET | At Baltimore | -2.5 | Cincinnati | 44.5 |
| 9/27 1:00 ET | At Cleveland | -3.5 | Oakland | 41.5 |
| 9/27 1:00 ET | Indianapolis | -3.5 | At Tennessee | 45.5 |
| 9/27 1:00 ET | Atlanta | -1 | At Dallas | 45 |
| 9/27 4:05 ET | At Arizona | -6.5 | San Francisco | 44 |
| 9/27 4:25 ET | At Seattle | -14.5 | Chicago | 44 |
| 9/27 4:25 ET | At Miami | -3 | Buffalo | 44 |
| 9/27 8:30 ET | Denver | -3 | At Detroit | 45.5 |
Monday Night Football Line
| 9/28 8:30 ET | At Green Bay | -6.5 | Kansas City | 49 |
Elite Plays: Eli, ODB, Garcon, Reed
Secondary Plays: Donnell, Randle, Morris, Vereen, Jones
Pittsburgh-1 At St. Louis 47
Close game and one of the higher O/U’s of the week. It’s all systems go for Pittsburgh with the return of LeVeon Bell. As a bonus the Rams have been awful versus the run so far this season. Last week the afore mentioned Matt Jones and Alfred Morris combo shredded them. In fairness though the Rams defense was pretty good vs the run last season and the first two games could have been an anomaly. Still this looks like a great spot for the Pittsburgh O in a game that Vegas thinks will go down to the wire.
For the Rams it’s trickier. It would be nice to roll out Foles against the soft Steeler silk curtain defense. The problem is I have no idea who to stack him with. Tavon Austin is a gadget player. Brian Quick doesn’t even play and I’m really not sure who their #1 WR is from week to week. At RB we have Gurley lurking with Tre Mason handling 1st and 2nd down while Benny C handles 3rd down. It’s too muddled there for my taste.
At Minnesota -2.5 San Diego 45
Last week we saw what Adrian Peterson can do when he is unleashed at home. I expect more of the same here. The Vikings are a slight home favorite in a game that also could stay close throughout. I’m still not sure what to make of the Minnesota passing game. Going in to the season it seemed that Charles Johnson would be the guy. In reality he has barely been targeted so far in that offense. Instead Mike Wallace appears to have emerged as the lead target in the Vikings low volume passing attack. Its AP or bust for me in this one.
The Chargers are coming off a tough road loss in Cincinnati and are now traveling cross country again for this game. The defense for the Vikings is middle of the road and they don’t excel at any one thing. All the Chargers skill position players are usable here. Danny Woodhead remains a major DFS value play this week. Rivers, Allen, Stevie and Ledarius Green are all usable in this game as well. If the Chargers were home for this game I’d like them more. On the road I’m not as excited outside of the obvious value players.
Elite Plays: Adrian Peterson, Danny Woodhead
Secondary: Mike Wallace, Teddy BridgeH20, Keenan Allen, Stevie Johnson, Green
At Houston -6.5 Tampa Bay 40.5
Normally you look at a game with a 40.5 point O/U and think ignore, but there is some fantasy goodness hiding beneath the surface in this one. The Vegas Sharps are telling us to avoid the Tampa Offense here and I think we should listen. Houston however is a different story. I loves me some cheap QB’s when they are favored at home. Mallet fits the bill here. I like the Mallett to Deandre stack here and will be firing it up in some lineups for sure. The other interesting sleeper play here is Chris Polk. Polk got the lionshare of carries last week and appears to have moved past the awful Alfred Blue on the Houston Depth chart. This is the type of sneaky DFS play that could pay off nicely. Houston D is also in play here and I could see JJ Watt making waves against the rookie QB.
Elite Plays: Houston D, Deandre Hopkins
Secondary Plays: Chris Polk, Mallett
At NY Jets -2.5 Philadelphia 47
J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS!!! You can’t throw on them and you can’t run on them. This is an elite defense this season playing at home, I’m not sure if this is my Jets homerism coming out but the line in this game seems too low. The Jets just dominated the Colts on the road, I know it was just one game and it’s possible that the Colts just haven’t gelled yet as an offense but the Eagles have looked as bad or worse. Chip Kelly has somehow figured out how to make Demarco Murray look like a hot mess. Outside of Matthews the Eagles offense has been a dud so far and none of the defenses they have faced are close to the Jets. I expect Revis to shadow Matthews in this game so there may be a second target that emerges for the Eagles. Perhaps Agholor?
The Jets present some intriguing fantasy options in this game. On a side note the Jets have been a black hole of fantasy badness for years so this write-up is extra special for me. One of our basic rules of thumb for DFS lineup construction is to target RB’s at home in games where their team is favored. Ivory hits all the check marks for me this week. Last week Eric Decker appeared to sustain a knee injury and his playing status for this week is up in the air. I fully expect Marshall to be a target machine in this game. Fire him up in a stack with Fitzpatrick for this game. Jets Defense is also in play.
Elite Plays: Chris Ivory, Brandon Marshall, Jets D
Secondary Plays: Ryan Fitzpatrick
At Carolina -10 New Orleans 43
As of this writing it looks like Drew Brees will be out for this game. I’m not ready to trust McCown in this spot start on the road facing an elite defense. Vegas agrees assigning a very modest 15 point projection for the Saints. Avoid them this week.
The Carolina offense is in play this week. New Orleans was already one of the worst defenses in the league and it should look worse for them with Brees out. I love Jonathan Stewart this week and expect him to have a big day. RB at home, big favorite, you know the drill. Newton and Olsen are also in play for this one as is Panthers D.
Elite Plays: Stewart, Newton, Olsen, Panthers D
At New England -13.5 Jacksonville 47.5
The Patriots offense has looked unstoppable so far this season. The Jags won’t have an answer for them. The only real question in this game is how much will the Patriots actually need to do. Vegas expects the Pats to do a lot of scoring but will it come through the air or on the ground. This game sets up well for Legarett Blount to handle a ton of garbage time carries. The problem is that we haven’t seen him almost at all this season. He was out week 1 and two featured a heavily involved Dion Lewis. Blount had just two lousy carries in week 2, So tough to trust Bellichick when it comes to RB’s so this is as risky of a play as it gets, Obviously Gronk and Edelman are elite plays this week as well.
For the Jags there isn’t much to like here. The New England offense isn’t great but they are opportunistic. I could see some turnovers in this one. It helps that the Jags are very generous to fantasy defenses when they are on the road. I could see a flier on Allen Robinson for some garbage time points but thats about it.
Elite Plays: Brady, Gronk, Edelman, Patriots D
Secondary Plays: Blount, Lewis, Allen Robinson
At Baltimore -2.5 Cincinnati 44.5
You never know how these division games are going to go. On paper it looks like a defensive slugfest. Baltimore Defense is not what it used to be and they just got lit up by the hapless Raiders. The Dalton, Green, Eifert triumvirate are playable here in a contrarian GPP sort of way. I’m not sure what to make of the Bengals run game after Hill was benched last week. I’m avoiding until we get some clarity.
For Baltimore, Triple S will have a tougher time this weekend going up against a top notch Bengals secondary. I also didn’t like how the Ravens used Forsett last week pulling him from the game in goal line situations. I’m not paying up for an RB with limited TD upside. I do like TE Crockett Gillmore a bit in this spot. Outside of Triple S Flacco has no one else to throw to but Gillmore.
Elite Plays: AJ Green, Dalton, Eifert
Secondary Plays: Crockett Gilmore
At Cleveland -3.5 Oakland 41.5
The Raiders came out of nowhere last week to dominate the Ravens on Offense. Who knew they had it in them? They were at hoe last week though and this time they are traveling East to take on a pretty good Cleveland secondary. I don’t like the Raiders in this spot and neither does Vegas, Expect a low scoring defensive affair. I could see rolling out Latavius Murray in this one as Cleveland is better vs the pass and Murray gets a heavy workload for the Raiders.
For Cleveland the situation is a bit more murky. Is it Duke Johnson or Crowell? Last week they split touches equally. In a game where the script should favor the home RB its not clear which one should be used. In GPP’s go ahead and take a flier on Jonny Football if you want. He seems to love Travis Benjamin. Proceed with caution however. Benjamin has just three receptions in each of the first two games. They were bombs for TD’s hence the big numbers but I’m not ready to count on those low percentage numbers on a week to week basis.
Elite Plays: None
Secondary: Cleveland D, Jonny Football, Benjamin, Murray
Indianapolis -3.5 At Tennessee 45.5
I’m expecting a good amount of scoring out of both teams in this game and Vegas agrees. The Colts are generally a high scoring offense. Top 3 or 4 in the league. Obviously we don’t know much about TY Hilton’s health but he is a younger player that actually played the whole game last week. I’d expect him to be fine for next weeks game. Tennessee does not have a notable secondary and should be abused through the air by Luck. The real question for me is where will the bulk of the production come from. You never really know with the Colts because they spread the ball to a number of weapons. If Allen is out this week Fleenor makes an interesting punt with upside. I’d expect Luck to want to get Andre Johnson involved as well here. I’m backing off Moncrief for this one and expecting Luck to focus in on his two top guys. As far as the running game goes I’m not a fan of how they have used Gore so far. I’m seeing him on the bench a lot more then I generally would like to see. It’s tough to judge things this early in the season but its not an ideal situation.
For Tennessee they go up against a completely depleted Colts secondary. This is an exploitable situation for Mariotta and the gang. The only WR that seems trustworthy to me is Wright. Outside of Wright no Titans receiver has more then 3 receptions this season. I’m not touching the Tennessee RB’s this week.
Elite Plays: Luck, Hilton,Andre Johnson
Secondary: Moncrief, Gore, Wright
Atlanta -1 At Dallas 45
Vegas is giving Dallas a better chance in this game then I would. Without Dez, Murray and Romo there’s nothing remotely scary about the Cowboys offense. If I were a betting man I’d throw a few units on Atlanta for the win, The good news is that we don’t care about wins and losses here this is about fantasy points. Its still tough to trust the Dallas run game. Randle has been ok so far but hasn’t broken out. He continues to cede around 1/3 of his touches to DMC. I expect Dallas to be playing from behind in this game and I’m not sure that gamescript favors Randle. I could see Terrance Williams having a nice game here as he should remain the top target in the passing game for Dallas.
Atlanta has an Elite Offense led by Julio Jones. He is a strong play this week. Last week Roddy White delivered one of the weeks tough landmines. Not a single reception. Instead our very own Mr Hanky Leonard Hankerson got more looks with 6 receptions. He is very cheap on all the sites and makes for an interesting Punt option this week. Tevin Coleman got hurt in last weeks game and should be out a few weeks. Devonta Freeman should not have much competition for touches over the next few games. I like these types of situations and plan to exploit it in my lineups this week.
Elite Plays: Ryan, Jones, Freeman
Secondary: Terrance Williams, Leonard Hankerson
At Arizona -6.5 San Francisco 44
Arizona is a nice size favorite at home against a 49ers secondary that was just torched by Ben and Brown. Fire up the weapons for Arizona once again this week. Carson Palmer is bordering on an ALL IN play in this one. His price across most of the sites is probably too low. Its a really good spot for him this week. Fitzgerald and Brown figure to be the primary beneficiaries in this thrashing. Both are good plays this week.
Elite Plays: Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, Arizona Defense
Secondary Play: David Johnson, CJag,
At Seattle -14.5 Chicago 44
Clearly the Chicago offense is a no no this week. If Alshon Jeffrey is healthy I’m still probably benching him in season long this week. Richard Sherman is a corner to fear in fantasy plus it mat be Jimmy Claussen under center. Ugly stuff.
For Seattle this sets up as a Marshawn Lynch game. I’m thinking Defensive turnovers in the redzone. Perhaps even a score on defense. I don’t see the Seahawks needing to rely much on the passing game here. I prefer Seattle’s Offense in games vs really good offenses because they tend to score more fantasy points in games with that type of game scripts.
Elite Plays: Seattle Defense, Marshawn Lynch
Secondary Plays: Wilson, Graham
At Miami -3 Buffalo 44
Miami’s D is supposed to be good but we haven’t seen it so far. T-Mobile has been good to us these first two weeks but his price hasn’t come up much. He threw a bunch of interceptions last week but still delivered a nice stat line. Still they are on the road facing a tough defense. This type of match-up does not excite me at all, Outside of a GPP flier or two with Tyrod I’m avoiding this game completely this week,
Denver -3 At Detroit 45.5
I’d feel a lot better about this game if the Broncos were at home this week. Detroit was a top notch defense lase season and for some reason they have looked awful this season so far. They lost Ndamukong Suh in Free Agency and it looks like they’ve taken a few steps back. I think the Broncos will do fine against them even on the road. All the relevant players in the Denver offense are usable.
With Stafford likely out for this game and Denver boasting a top defense you can safely fade the Lions in this game.
At Green Bay -6.5 Kansas City 49
Some Final Tidbits:
That’s it for The Geek’s Vegas Lines Analysis and Player Picks column this week. DFS Army VIP Members can expect a newsletter on Wednesday with specific player picks for Fanduel and Draftkings with recommended stacks and ALL IN plays split between Cash, GPP or Both. In addition I will include some cash optimized lineup samples for both Fanduel and Draftkings. You can use those as is or ideally take the samples and make some swaps to make them your own. If you haven’t joined our premium membership plan you might want to consider doing so now. It’s FREE for new referrals and just $40 for the season if you aren’t new. That’s just over $2 per week for a service that will go a long way to helping you make money at this hobby we all love. This is the hopefully the beginning of a season long journey together. There will be ups and downs for sure but hopefully the ups will be higher and more frequent then the downs. Remember to hit me up on Twitter @ffootballgeek or via email [email protected]
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**Please ignore any spelling or grammar errors you may come across in these articles. This column takes hours to research and write. I try to focus on providing great content and advice but I’m not a writer by trade and who really gives a shit if a players name is spelled wrong. You know who I mean.
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