Matt McCarty got off the mat up in Ontario. The American golfer shook off consecutive missed cuts to end up T-4 at the RBC Canadian Open. Now, the Masters was a bit rougher this year and McCarty did finish T-15. This is only his second U.S. Open appearance. In 2022, he missed the cut at The Country Club. The lack of experience and fear of inconsistent form has McCarty now at +40000 to win at Oakmont. That translates to +1100 for a Top 10. McCarty putts well (21st at 0.378 strokes gained). Unfortunately, McCarty often starts out poor. He averages 29.2 putts per round in Round 1 (126th). That number drops to 26.73 for Round 2 (1st on tour). The key to the U.S. Open is surviving the course. McCarty can do that but consistently is a red flag.

Justin Thomas wants to continue his good 2025 season. The American golfer has six Top 10 results and a win in just 13 events. Thomas has not won a major since the 2022 PGA Championship. Furthermore, his record at the U.S. Open has not been great. That includes back-to-back missed cuts. He did finish inside the Top 10 at Erin Hills (2017) and Winged Foot (2020). Unfortunately, Oakmont saw him falter outside the Top 30. (T-32). In six Sunday appearances, Thomas has never shot better than a 72. Combine that with the expected weather forecast and Thomas may be a weekend DFS liability and a fade to bet too.

Jon Rahm is ready as he will ever be for the U.S. Open. The Spanish golfer is in solid form but remembers what happened nine years ago at Oakmont. Rahm started with a 76 before rebounding on Friday. One of the biggest reasons then was errant shots and not the rough. Also, Rahm missed the U.S. Open in 2024 but was in the Top 12 the two previous years. 2021 saw him win at Torrey Pines. Rahm is always a threat to win majors (has won twice). Rahm stands at +1200 to win and +110 to finish inside the Top 10. He did falter in the PGA Championship but still ended up T-8. Even at the Masters, Rahm flirted with the Top 10 and was a few missed shots from truly contending. Expect him to be a threat around Oakmont.

Tom Kim did not fare well at the first two majors in 2025. The South Korean golfer made the cut but finished outside the Top 50 at both the Masters and the PGA Championship. Kim strives for improvement at the U.S. Open. Kim has finished 26th or better and ended up inside the Top 10 in 2023 (LACC North). His scrambling is around average but strokes gained to putting has dipped in 2025 (141st at -0.224). Worse, Kim's greens in regulation is 151st at 62.85% and shots greater than 200 yards end up a distant 56 feet 11 inches on average (170th). Kim now stands at +20000 as Oakmont appears to be that intimidating.