Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We enter the last Friday of the regular season today, and are met with a couple of early (albeit a bit late) games followed by a 13-game main slate. This will probably be my last article for the season, so I hope you all have enjoyed them. At any rate, there’s still plenty to cover for today, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We’re back to the big slates, so with that we have plenty of options today. Things do look a little tough to navigate, as the higher-end pitchers are either in tough matchups or they’re pitching at Coors (we saw how that went last night). This could be a night to pay down and attack the mid-range in tournaments, as we have some pitchers such as Pivetta and Rodon who carry strong KSCOREs but aren’t exactly going up against dumpster-quality offenses. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early games
Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates
We’ll kick things off with the early games, starting with the Marlins and Pirates. Cabrera and Priester will get the start for this one, though there isn’t any Vegas insight as of early this morning. These early games are awfully close to the main slate, which may offer some attrition, so keep your eyes peeled.
Marlins 5 star plays – Chisholm, Soler
Marlins 4 star plays – Bell, Burger
GPP note – Priester allows good power to both sides of the plate, though lefties do have the advantage in this matchup.
Pirates 4 star plays – Reynolds, Hayes
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Suwinski/Bae
GPP note – Cabrera has reverse splits working against him, as he’s allowing more contact and power to righties than he is to lefties. Consider taking some extra RHBs against him.
Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers
Next up we have the Guardians and Tigers, with Quantrill and Wentz on the mound. An 8.0 total, Vegas has this one split down the middle, though I think I will give the nod to Cleveland, personally. We’ll see how that goes, but once again, keep an eye on the contests for these early games as many people may just skip right over them.
Guardians 5 star plays – Ramirez
Guardians 4 star plays – Laureano/Naylor, Kwan
GPP note – Wentz is allowing good contact to both sides (as well as some extra power to lefties), and that combined with this team’s low strikeout rate could make for a lot of action.
Tigers 4 star plays – Carpenter/Torkelson
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Vierling
GPP note – Quantrill can be a tough target to attack, though he is allowing some decent xwOBA to lefties.
Main slate
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles
We switch over to the main slate now, starting with the Red Sox and Orioles. Pivetta and Means will get the start, along with another 8.0 total. The home team is the slight favorite here, but I’m going to go against the grain and say that Boston will squeak out a win here. Maybe not by much, but one run is all they need.
Red Sox 4 star plays – Turner/Duvall, Devers
Red Sox 3.5 star plays – Story
GPP note – Means has a knack for allowing contact and power to both sides, so this could be a decent spot to grab a few medium-sized stacks at reduced ownership.
Orioles 4 star plays – Henderson, Rutschman/Santander
Orioles 3.5 star plays – O’Hearn
GPP note – Pivetta allows decent power to both sides on occasion but also carries a lot of strikeout upside for the price, so consider making some hedge moves here.
Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays
Civale and the Rays will take on Kikuchi and the Blue Jays next, as we move down to a 7.5 total. The home team is once again favored here, though this one is a bit tougher to call. I could see it going either way, but at least for us, there are some players here with decent upside at a reasonable price.
Rays 4 star plays – Arozarena, Diaz
Rays 3.5 star plays – Ramirez
GPP note – While Kikuchi does have the occasional implosion, this relatively low implied total suggests than small or medium-sized stacks might be the way to go today.
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Guerrero/Springer. Belt
Blue Jays 3.5 star plays – Kiermaier/Varsho
GPP note – Similar to Pivetta, Civale is allowing some power but also carries plenty of strikeout side at a mid-ranged price, so if you enjoy hedging, this is another good spot to do it.
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
We have some weather issues at our next game, as Walker and the Phillies will take on Megill and the Mets. An 8.0 total, the visitors get a slight nod here, but that’s provided that mother nature behaves, and they play as scheduled. Be sure to keep an eye on things in case that does not come to be.
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – Schwarber, Turner, Stott
GPP note – This spot doesn’t really pop off the page thanks to the average-looking implied total, but Megill does allow good contact and power to both sides. Some moderate stacking would be a good move here and these bats may go a little under the radar.
Mets 5 star plays – Lindor, Alonso
Mets 4 star plays – Nimmo, Mauricio
GPP note – Basically the same as above. Some game-stacking isn’t a bad idea, either.
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Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves
We ramp up to a beefy 10.0 total for our next game, as the Nationals and Braves will face off. Williams and Winans will get the star there, and Vegas has Atlanta down as heavy favorites. I don’t know how many people that will surprise (hopefully none), but hey, baseball can be funny sometimes.
Nationals 4 star plays – Abrams, Thomas
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Meneses, Smith
GPP note – It’s not a great spot to attack, though Winans does allow some power to lefties on occasion.
Braves 5 star plays – Acuna, Olson
Braves 4 star plays – Albies, Riley/Ozuna
GPP note – Great spot but boy oh boy will they be chalky.
San Diego Padres at Chicago White Sox
Next up we’ll have Martinez and the Padres taking on Cease and the White Sox. We move down to an 8.5 total for this one, with the visitors getting the nod from Vegas. While I see things playing out in that manner, I also think that a few of the Chicago bats could help to put up a good fight, so perhaps there will be a little back-and-forth here.
Padres 4.5 star plays – Soto
Padres 4 star plays – Tatis/Machado, Bogaerts
GPP note – A generous implied total considering the matchup, though Cease does allow some power to lefties. His strikeout upside warrants some hedging, especially considering that he shouldn’t see a ton of ownership in this spot.
White Sox 4 star plays – Jimenez/Vaughn/Moncada
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Anderson, Benintendi
GPP note – An okay spot overall, Martinez does have some reverse splits working against him, so taking some righties near the top of the order could be a good way to get some early big hits.
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers
Hendricks and the Cubs will take on Rea and the Brewers next, as we move down once again, this time to a 7.5 total. This game is split right down the middle, though it’s hard to get very excited with such a low total and the fact that Hendricks is on one side of it.
Cubs 5 star plays – Bellinger
Cubs 4 star plays – Happ, Suzuki, Candelario
GPP note – Rea allows decent power to both sides of the plate, so some small or medium-sized stacks can be utilized here, despite the low total.
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 3.5 star plays – Santana, Adames/Contreras
GPP note – Hendricks tends to be an annoying target to attack for DFS purposes, so consider smaller stacks here.
New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals
Moving right along, our next matchup will be between the Yankees and my Royals. Rodon and Lyles will get the start here, along with a 9.0 total. Vegas likes New York to take this one by about a run, but I would like to think that my guys can take them. If nothing else, at least their season will be ending with ours, so that’s a victory (yes I’m a hater).
Yankees 5 star plays – Judge
Yankees 4 star plays – Torres, Stanton
GPP note – Lyles allows good contact and power to both sides of the plate and carries a below-average strikeout rate, making this a good spot for this offense.
Royals 4 star plays – Witt, Perez
Royals 3.5 star plays – Garcia/Velazquez
GPP note – Another high ceiling/low floor pitcher, Rodon allows good power to both sides but also carries 8+ strikeout upside, so hedging isn’t a bad idea.
Minnesota Twins at Colorado Rockies
We get our Coors chalk for our next game, and this time it’s the Twins and Rockies. Ryan and Blach will get the start, along with an 11.5 total. It’s Coors, so not much else needs to be said here, I don’t think!
Twins 5 star plays – Polanco
Twins 4 star plays – Correa, Castro, Solano
GPP note – It’s Coors and there are some inexpensive bats near the bottom of the order, so why not give them a look?
Rockies 4.5 star plays – Blackmon/Bryant
Rockies 4 star plays – Jones/McMahon
GPP note – Last night showed that these guys still have some fight left in them, but we can expect their ownership to be inflated as a result.
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Cincinnati Reds at St Louis Cardinals
We head the other way down I-70 for our next game, which will be between the Reds and Cardinals. Williamson and Woodford get the start here, along with a 9.0 total. This is another game split down the middle (somebody is a little indecisive today), though I’ll give my nod to Cincinnati by a couple of runs.
Reds 5 star plays – De La Cruz
Reds 4 star plays – Encarnacion-Strang, India/Friedl/Steer
GPP note – A fine of a spot as many others, but perhaps with less ownership thanks to the previous game.
Cardinals 4.5 star plays – Goldschmidt
Cardinals 4 star plays – Edman
GPP note – Williamson can be strict but does have a trend of allowing a home run or so per start, so one-offs or mini-stacks may be the most efficient way to go here.
Late games
Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels
We’ll head out west for our last handful of games, starting with the Athletics and Angels. Waldichuk and Silseth will get the start here, along with an 8.5 total. LA is the slight favorite here, and while I do agree, I think that there could be some decent back-and-forth action here on a budget. Perhaps this could be a source of a few secondary stacks to go with the chalk?
Athletics 4 star plays – Noda, Gelof/Rooker
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Langeliers
GPP note – An okay spot overall, Silseth allows some power to both sides, but the benefit here is that there are several budget bats that could return plenty of value.
Angels 4 star plays – Grichuk, Drury
Angels 3.5 star plays – Neto, O’Hoppe
GPP note – Waldichuk allows good power to both sides of the plate and carries a slightly lower-than-average strikeout rate, so this could be a good spot to grab a few lower-owned bats.
Houston Astros at Arizona Diamondbacks
Next up we get France and the Astros taking on Gallen and the Diamondbacks. A 9.0 total, the home team is favored once again here. I sure hope that comes to fruition, as I would just love to see the Asterisks get booted from the playoffs in favor of Seattle. I’m feeling edgy this morning!
Astros 4 star plays – Alvarez, Tucker, Altuve/Bregman
Astros 3.5 star plays – Brantley
GPP note – Gallen isn’t the best pitcher to attack, but he is allowing some power here and there, so contrarian moves are in play here.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – Carroll
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Marte, Pham/Walker/Thomas/Gurriel
GPP note – Solid spot for these bats, as France enters with a low strikeout rate and has been allowing plenty of contact and power to both sides of the plate.
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
Speaking of which, our next matchup will be between the Rangers and Mariners, with Eovaldi and Woo on the mound. We drop down to a 7.5 total, which seems fair considering the overall matchup, though I do wonder which Eovaldi will show up. I’m hoping that the gas can version shows up, but we’ll see how that all goes.
Rangers 4.5 star plays – Seager
Rangers 4 star plays – Semien/Lowe, Heim/Garcia
GPP note – Overall, Woo can be stingy, but he did allow four home runs to these guys last week.
Mariners 4.5 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 4 star plays – Raleigh/Crawford, Hernandez
GPP note – Mostly the same as above but it was two homers instead of four. Eovaldi has been having some trouble allowing power to righties, so don’t be afraid to take some shots with them.
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
And finally, we’ll wrap things up with the Dodgers and Giants, with Lynn and Winn on the mound (hey that rhymes). I have no Vegas insight as of this morning, though I assume that LA will get the nod. However that goes, I like San Francisco’s chances of making this one interesting, and I could certainly see an upset occurring.
Dodgers 4.5 star plays – Freeman/Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – Muncy, Smith/Martinez
GPP note – Winn has looked decent and doesn’t allow a ton of power, so this could be a spot to go a little light on the stacks.
Giants 4.5 star plays – Yastrzemski
Giants 4 star plays – Wade/Flores/Pederson/Estrada/Conforto
GPP note – While Lynn does carry moderate strikeout upside, he’s been allowing plenty of homers, so taking some swings at him here could quickly pay off.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me this season, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. See you all next year!
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Sep 28, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Mariners shortstop J.P. Crawford (3) celebrates after getting bucket of water dumped on him after game against the Texas Rangers at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Brashear-USA TODAY Sports