Ok, we started with a concept this week and it quickly got out of hand. I really think this is going to help so many of you build a smart, safe player pool for NFL DFS, though. And, I think starting with the safer players, then expanding to gpp pivots is the way to go. I cut it all up into a “process” for you using videos and the Research Station, along with some Domination Station setup. Finally, I compared what I liked with Geek’s NFL Cheatsheet for a confidence boost…..and we aligned in nearly 90% of the players listed.
I made this an article simply to house all of the videos and commentary so you don’t have to sift through the #chop-talk channel for hours and hours piecing it all together. If you want more of this, please let me know. I’ll produce whatever you guys want for as long as it helps you guys out.
First Discussion – Quarterbacks
We didn’t have the Research Station up and running with Vegas info in it at this point of the week. So, I did it all through text/type. Here is the important piece…
- Kyler
- Russ – might be my favorite at this point
- Dak
- Cam
- Matt Ryan
- Josh Allen
- Rivers
- Herbert (probably not though)
Efficiency matters more in QB value than pass attempts or any of that stuff. Rush attempts matter for RBs, targets for WRs/TEs, but efficiency for QBs……..and Kyler Murray is great, just not very efficient if looking at DVOA, DYAR, QBR or EFFyds or about any other efficiency metric you want to use. We might be one lack of rushing day away from a dud………..and he might never stop rushing. We just don’t know.
Russell Wilson is really efficient right now. Home and favored, implied to score a lot of points, Dallas defense is allowing points to QBs at a scary clip. Might be safest with upside on slate.The other super efficient QB right now…..Josh Allen?!!! Tougher matchup this week, we’ll see. He might be efficient on softer matchups, he might beast. But, he feels a little more gpp-only than cash safe. Hybrids? Sure, like 1 of my 5 lineups. Only Russ, Kyler, or Dak would probably get into 2+ lineups. And, I’m going to have Cam in one for sure.
Running Backs – Move to Video (all videos are under 15 min)
We focus on home favorites. Historically, running backs on teams implied to score more than 24 points are also in great spots. Receptions are important, as are goal line touches. By using these “check marks,” we can simply cross names off the list that don’t meet strong criteria. And, we are left with only the strongest backs in the strongest matchups set to do real damage on the slate. They have strong floors, and they have matchups that should allow them to test their ceilings this week.
Wide Receivers Video
Here I thought of a visual concept I’m going to be using a lot…….red circle, yellow circle, blue circle. It’s probably important to also mention I am building a player pool designed for smaller gpps and cash type contests…..your ladders, if you will. These contests don’t require risk. They can eat chalk. We can stack some, but don’t want to go overboard with risky moves because there isn’t large reward for guessing right. We want to play smart, steady and closer to the vest. If we want to build riskier, more entertaining lineups full of gamble, we need to put those in larger field tournaments…..not 5050s and 100man leagues.
But, again, we knock down the list of viable players very quickly.
Tight Ends and Defenses Video
Another quick knock down of players focusing on red and yellow circles. Not a big list……for good reason!
“Chalk Check” Video and Dom Station Setup
In this 12ish minute video, we walk through the basics of Domination Station. Let’s make some sample batches of lineups and see what we get for combinations. I uncheck the blue circle players we don’t want, and I set up some stacking rules for my QBs. I’m getting ideas for handbuilding my five lineups for the week here.
We will go into more Dom Station stuff as the weeks go on, but this is a basic representation of where I plan to eat chalk and where I plan to play a simple leverage game with the more volatile positions in the pool. We don’t play the leverage game with much of what we do in these lineups, but there are always spots to exploit overlooked players in great matchups.
Comparison to The Geek!
Another quick video showing how all the quick research comes together. No longer do you need to pour over stats for hours and hours like we used to five years ago. Those days are gone. A simple “box checking” process, visualization of the red/yellow/blue circles, a little optimizer play, and a cross check with one of our greatest DFS minds will show you we are on the right track for success.
I even explain to you what most of our staff means when they call players “all format,” or “core” plays vs 3max and gpp plays. I compare them to my red/yellow/blue circles, so be sure to watch the wide receiver video if you haven’t. It will all tie together like a present under the Christmas tree for you.
The discussion is always alive in our beginner chat room, choptalk, geekspeak, and the main NFL and NFL Coaching rooms. Please join in with questions and comments. We want to help you become the best player you can be! Have a great week!