Trust The Process DFS NBA – August 1st, 2020 FanDuel and DraftKings

The DFS NBA “Trust The Process” article is an in-depth look at the DFS Army NBA Research Station to help find plays on today’s 5-game slate! The goal is to help make a solidified process everyone can follow to crush cash games and tournaments alike. You can find me on Twitter @AUFan30 or in Slack throughout most of the day if you have any questions!

Point Guards

The first thing I do when looking for players to build around is sort by And1 rating. The And1 rating is an all-encompassing metric unique to the DFS Army that factors in several different columns, including aDVP, Ceiling, Floor, USG%, etc. I like to keep track of the Top 5 players from each position. Take note of these guys and see if they stay high on the list of the other metrics we will look at.

Next, we will sort by Floor for cash games. When we do this, we see that Jackson completely drops out of the Top 5. This tells me he is likely better suited for GPP and tournaments.

For GPP’s we will sort by Ceiling. The Ceiling is the number we can expect these guys to hit 15 – 20% of the time if everything goes right for them. Doing this, we see that Simmons stays high on the list. We also notice the Top 5 doesn’t change at all really. This tells me these five guys are the ones to target in tournaments for point guards tonight. Keep an eye on Murray’s status.

We will then sort by FP/Min. The FP/Min column is very useful in telling us who produces when they are on the court. Doing this shows us our Top 5 really doesn’t change much aside from Dragic replacing Lowry. Simmons stays extremely high on the list.

The next step is to sort by USG%. If we’re looking for what studs to build around, we want a guy who is heavily involved in his offense. Note that Simmons falls off the list completely, and the Top 5 really changes here. I’d roll with the other lists we’ve seen so far, but that is a very small GPP note to make.

When we have what guys we want to target selected, we then want to look at two columns in particular: Who’s Hot? and Clock Watch. These two columns are very important for GPP plays in particular. Every player goes through a cold stretch as well as hot streaks. One thing we really need to note here is the fact that we’ve had several months off with the COVID outbreak, so these stats carry a lot less weight right now. Regardless, we’ll still look at who was trending upwards before COVID started. When we sort by Descending on 3g vs 10g, we see Lowry and Murray really jump here. Lowry had been providing fantasy owners 6.7X over his last 3 games while averaging 49.5 FP’s and tops the chart at a +7.14 3g vs 10g rating. We also see Murray here providing 5.4X over the last 3 for fantasy owners. However, Murray is questionable to play today, so we really need to watch that, because that indicates that he could even be limited if he does play. One thing I want to note here is that Malcolm Brogdon popped up on the injury report late, which is usually not a good sign. If he is ruled out, and IF Victor Oladipo decides to not play in the restart, we see Holiday popping up here at #3 and he would get substantial run with those two off the court. Again, that depends on Brogdon and Oladipo’s statuses.

We also like to sort by Clock Watch to see what players had been getting more run lately. Once again, we see Holiday really pop here. My only worry with Holiday again is Brogdon and Oladipo statuses. Otherwise, Holiday will get a ton of run and sees a big boost in USG and FP/Min. Outside of that, we don’t really see much in terms of trends here. Lowry before COVID was getting all the minutes he could handle.

Finally, for guards, in particular, we look for guys in Pace Up matchups. This leads to more transition opportunities as well as steal opportunities. For cash games, we don’t necessarily worry too much about the Pace, but it is a very good metric for GPP guards. For guards, we sort by Descending under Pace (+/-).

Shooting Guards and Small Forwards

SG’s and SF’s follow the exact same process as the PG’s do.

Power Forwards

For Power Forwards, we will follow the exact same process for these guys, however, we will change one thing. For PF’s, we want a slow-paced matchup. This is due to PF’s getting more steal and block opportunities, as well as rebound opportunities from set offenses. To find these guys, we will go to Pace of Play and sort Pace (+/-) by Ascending order. Again, take note of any PF’s noticed from the other metrics we’ve already looked at.

Centers

Centers follow the exact same process as PF’s.

Vegas

In NBA DFS, we really want to target games that possess a high scoring total. The more possessions a team has gives us more opportunities for our players to score points. Therefore, we will start using the Vegas section of the RS for our research! We will sort by Total +/- Descending to see what teams are projected to score more than their season average tonight.

When we do this, we see LAC and LAL really pop up here. LAC is projected to score 115.5 points today, up from a season average of 107.1. The Total O/U of that game is 226, which is pretty good for GPP purposes. LAL is implied to score 109.5 today, up from a season average of 105.6.

Tier List

You will want to make a Tier List of the players you’ve found based on your research. Treat this list as an “in case they’re scratched” list. I would always recommend making the highest priced guy the first on your list, therefore if he is scratched then you have nothing to worry about salary-wise with your edits in case he is scratched just before lock.

Minutes

For cash games, I do make a rule on the RS to include only players who will play over 24 minutes. This is something that needs to be monitored, as the closer we get to lock the RS may not be updated and may require a manual adjustment to a player’s minutes. To add this setting, simply select the down arrow under EDIT Mins under the TODAYS – Projections tab, hover over Number Filters, select Custom Filter.

We will then select “Is greater than or equal to” from the drop-down box and 24 in the input box.

Domination Station Fpts/$ and Ownership %

Once we have our list of guys to target, we want to check out who is popping on the DS. The first section we want to pull up is the Fpts/$. Players hitting value is crucial to taking down any cash contest or tourney and we want to be sure we’re getting the best bang for our buck. We do this by sorting by Fpts/$.

We also want to check out projected ownerships. This is very useful when trying to decide what value to play, or deciding what studs to fade in tournaments. This can also help bring a player to your attention you may not have noticed in the Research Station! The industry is usually very spot on about what players are in good spots, so this ownership tab is very important to watch.

Top Plays for Today!!

These are my personal Top 3 Plays that I believe will most likely be on the optimal lineup at each position based on the RS numbers. These will likely change when news comes out closer to lock, so make sure you’re in the #nba-breaking-news and #nba-coaches-notes channels and turn notifications on! (Salaries sorted by FD/DK)

PG

1. Ben Simmons $8,000/$8,600
2. Mike Conley $5,700/$5,400
3. Reggie Jackson $4,100/$4,100

SG

1. Paul George $7,700/$7,900
2. Jordan Clarkson $4,500/$3,900
3. Donovan Mitchell $7,200/$6,900

SF

1. Kawhi Leonard $9,500/$8,900
2. Brandon Ingram $7,400/$7,800
3. LeBron James $10,900/$10,900

PF

1. Anthony Davis $10,000/$10,400
2. Bam Adebayo $8,400/$8,100
3. Kyle Kuzma $4,700/$4,300

C

1. Nikola Jokic $9,000/$9,000
2. Joel Embiid $9,000/$9,700
3. Rudy Gobert $7,400/$7,000

 

Thank you for reading and as mentioned before, be sure to follow my Twitter @AUFan30 or catch me in Slack with any questions you may have! Be sure to be watching the breaking news channel as always to make sure you don’t miss any exciting value plays and be sure your players are good to go! If you want access to my full player pool then go on over to https://wp.dfsarmy.com/ref/99/ and use code AU30 for 20% off your monthly VIP or SBA membership!