Welcome to a special Thanksgiving edition of DrawPlays. I love holiday slates, they’re my favorite ones to play. So this is the time of year we surround ourselves with our family and friends and pug out on some turkey, sweet potatoes, and of course cranberry sauce (the homemade kind, not that store bought weird cylinder that falls out of the can). How many of us still sit down and say what they’re thankful for? I’ll admit, it’s a tradition that’s fallen out of touch with my family in recent years. However, I still think it’s important to reflect on all the things I’m grateful for and I’ll share them with you now. Feel free to share yours with me on Thursday morning in the puggle room!!

I’m thankful for cornerbacks who are undersized and overmatched.

I’m thankful for all the other nickels out there who have helped make me money this season.

I’m thankful for mis-priced receivers and the pass happy NFL.

Most of all, I’m thankful for all our members and the coaches here who have pushed me to get better every week.

Top Turkey Plays

Anthony Miller Vs. Teez Tabor

Tabor is bad. I’ve gone after him multiple times this season and it’s been gravy. The Lions are so weak in the secondary outside of Darius Slay that they don’t have many options. Remember last week, figuring out who would get Slay and who would get Tabor (Funchess or Moore) led to a bit of confusion, ultimately it was DJ Moore who benefited the most en route to a monster week. Luckily for us there isn’t much to be debated this week as Anthony Miller gets the edge here. He has found the end zone in three of his last four and is 5.6K on FanDuel and 4.4K on DraftKings in one of if not the slates best match-up. I dare you to find a better deal on Black Friday. He is going to be a staple in most of my Thursday lineups.

Taylor Gabriel Vs. Nevin Lawson

Tabor has been so bad this season, it almost leads us to forget how generous Lawson has been to opposing receivers this season. He’s given up a 19% opposing target rate and 61% opposing catch rate which isn’t eye popping but certainly worth attacking on this slate. Gabriel was a ghost in week 10 against the Lions which puts him squarely on my radar for this week in GPP’s. He is going to go under owned because of all the game log enthusiasts out there and I love the upside he brings to the Thanksgiving table on Thursday.

Michael Thomas Vs. Robert Alford

We saw this match-up in week 3. Now we get a repeat in the primetime game where I can see Thomas walking away with that Golden Turkey Leg. This is what I had to say two months ago.

Michael Thomas has caught 28/30 footballs thrown at him this season. You guys want me to keep writing or did you roster him before I finished that first sentence? Well if you did, you may want to hold your horses and find out some things about Robert Alford. He’s a great corner and has been solid so far this year as well. Usually we don’t like to target tougher match-ups, so I will tag this one with “Buyer Beware.” Thomas is very expensive but for good reason, the Saints have been dependent on him this season and will continue to be. Remember in week 1 when I was telling you all that we have not seen his true potential, this is the year. This is why I have no problem being high on him week in and week out. Back to Alford though, he has the most passes defended in the league over the last 5 seasons which says two things. First, the guy is always around the ball and second, he’s also being thrown at a lot. Take it for what you will, but the knock on Alford has always been that he is prone to giving up big plays which is a New Orleans special. I would feel very confident using Thomas in droves despite his difficult week 3 match-up.

So what was the outcome. 10-129. Not so much the big play as much as the massive efficiency as Thomas caught every single pass thrown to him in that one. I am not a game log guy, I like to be contrarian. However, I also know when to eat the chalk. When your uncle Angel and your weird cousins boyfriend with the cape are arguing about who the best receiver in football is, you tell them to sign on up with the army. Tell them I told you since the beginning of the season that Thomas is just getting started. Then when you’re heaping those piles of mash potatoes and stuffing onto that plate, make sure you grab yourself a nice serving of chalk. This is the expensive receiver you want.

THE JULIO JONES CONUNDRUM

Let’s dive a little deeper… why not pay for Julio? Julio Jones is going to get shadow coverage from Marshon Lattimore and on paper, it doesn’t look that bad. You can look back to week 3 and see that Julio was only targeted 6 times. He was good, hauling in 5 of 6 for 96 yards but why in a 43-37 game did Julio only see 6 targets? Maybe because he wasn’t open, or maybe it was because Calvin Ridley was always open in that one. Either way… If the Falcons are scoring 30+ and Julio only sees 6 targets, something smells fishy here to me and it’s not your cooking. He’s always in play but for me this week, I plan on having only about 20% exposure here in GPP’s as it’s more of a hedge spot for me against the field where he will be highly owned.

The Stuffing

Michael Gallup Vs. Danny Johnson

This isn’t the tryptophan talking, I like the spot. Rookie Danny Johnson has still not been involved enough to really know how good he is. However, he should see a bunch of snaps this week against Gallup who has yet to show anything special either. This is that speculation play I always make. Let’s think with our noodles here. The Washington run defense is no joke, they are stingier against the run than your aunt is to give up the recipe to her famous cornbread. With Amari Cooper seeing Josh Norman coverage, how do the Cowboys expect to move the ball? Gallup has seen a a steady average of 5 targets a game in his last 4 and I think it’s fair to see him exceed that this week. Note: Gallup has said he will play, presumably with with a heavy heart for this one as his brother committed suicide this past weekend. Our thoughts and prayers are with him and his family.

Mohamed Sanu Vs. P.J. Williams

I’m going here in GPP’s only with Sanu as Williams has burned me the last couple of weeks. This is how you win tournaments. You think about games, think about what is likely, identify the necessary chalk and then pick savvy contrarian spots. I think this is one of them as Ridley (obviously still in play) will definitely be the more widely owned receiver from the Falcons not named Julio Jones. Sanu has quietly racked up 19 targets in his last 3 and managed to find the end zone in their first match-up this season. Williams while not getting abused the last two weeks like I thought he would may have a very difficult time on the quick turn around.

The Side Dishes

In lieu of a value chart for the three game slate. I’m going to leave you with my “best of the rest” if you will. A little bonus list of how I rank some of the other spots. Happy Thanksgiving my fellow Army members… may your turkey day leave your stomach and bank account filled to the brim!!

Quarterback

Mitchell Trubisky
Drew Brees
Matt Ryan
Matt Stafford

Running Back

Alvin Kamara
Tarik Cohen
Tevin Coleman
Theo Riddick
Ezekiel Elliot

Wide Receiver (not yet mentioned)

Tre’Quan Smith (Keith Kirkwood gets a big bump if he somehow does not play)
Kenny Golladay
Amari Cooper
Allen Robinson
Bruce Ellington

Tight End

Jordan Reed
Austin Hooper
Trey Burton

Defense Special Teams

Redskins (way too cheap on both sites)
Cowboys
Bears

DabbingPilgrims NFL DFS “Draw Plays” Thanksgiving Edition