Welcome back to another season of Daily Fantasy Football!! Training camp is going full force right now, Fanduel and Draftkings have both released week one salaries and contests, and we have been preparing non-stop to bring DFS Army members the best suite of tools and advice possible to dominate the competition this upcoming season. My name is Kevin and most of you know me as “Geek” or “The Fantasy Football Geek”. I founded the DFS Army with the goal of bringing high-level DFS tools, research and strategies to regular joes, to allow them to compete like “pros”.
As an early adaptor of DFS (I got my start in 2011 before most people had even heard of Fanduel or Draftkings) and one of the top-ranked players, I’ve watched the game evolve from its infancy. Players we consider “sharks” today didn’t have crystal balls or the ability to see into the future. What they did possess was a vision, the desire and the tools to get an edge on the field. In the earliest days of DFS, people like the well-known shark, Condia, got the edge by creating projections based off vegas game and team totals. It’s hard to imagine today but back in the early days, that was a new concept. Then a couple of years later, well know shark, Maxdalury, created a tool that allowed him to quickly edit hundreds of lineups in a matter of seconds, essentially the ability to react to late-breaking news that the masses didn’t have access to. He won millions using those techniques. I had friendships with other players considered sharks that would tell me about personal assistants they had hired to create optimization tools for them or just to monitor late-breaking news from all of the various beat writers and sources in the pursuit of an edge in this crazy game.
Leveling the Playing Field
My theory was that if we provided regular players with access to similar tools, they could compete on a level playing field. Most of us don’t have the resources to run our own projection models and backtest them or create optimization tools that allow for incredible flexibility and user control. Most of us can’t hire a full-time assistant to monitor late-breaking news and deliver that information to us in a clear and concise manner. The second component is coaching. It’s not just enough to have access to high-level tools. There are plenty of places that have optimizers and projections. I think ours are better but that’s not the point. Most people don’t necessarily understand the various approaches required to construct +EV lineups. How it’s important to alter ones approach based on the various contest types that are offered by DFS operators like Fanduel and Draftkings. That’s what DFS Army VIP’s get when they join our team. It’s not just high level tools and research, but a combination of tools research and coaching by actual full-time DFS pros. That approach is what helps our VIP members compete on a level playing field with DFS pros.
WHATS NEW FOR THE 2018 NFL SEASON
In the past, we were able find success in daily fantasy football by simply looking for teams in good spots with high Vegas game and team totals. We would target the players from those teams because their teams were projected to score the most points. Seems simple. Unfortunately, that’s not good enough these days. Today, the opposition has gotten smarter. It’s not enough to simply identify the chalk plays. Everyone knows which games are projected to produce the most points, including the DFS operator sites like Fanduel and Draftkings. I mentioned in the intro that there was a time when simply building projections or having tools to mass-edit entries in seconds was enough to get the edge. Now we need these tools just to compete on a level playing field. So where is the edge? This season in the DFS Army we are adding in some incredibly new and forward-looking tools and strategies which I will discuss in detail below. We are taking our lineup construction approach to the next level with a correlation matrix that is forward-looking and predictive rather than generic or historical. We are bringing in handicapping models to help determine where the oddsmakers are likely to have made mistakes, and we are bringing in more DFS pros to coach up our membership in strategies that they use to find DFS success. The sites are adjusting player salaries based on matchups and game totals. That salary adjustment means that, as players, we need to shift our focus away from a linear look at projections in favor of searching for situations where we expect teams to over or under-perform their projected outcomes. In addition, the edge in the 2018 daily fantasy football season, more then ever before, requires players to be more sophisticated in terms of lineup construction techniques making sure to build highly correlated tournament lineups. All of our DFS Army VIP tools are designed to help members pull this off. Those of you reading this column that have been members for past football seasons are in for a treat. The best is getting better!!
We have a serious track record, even with “the old way.”
DBarlow hit it hard for a cool $250,000 on New Year’s Eve of 2017. Learn more about how he did it —> Another Member Won $250k!
JHawkFan25 just missed his own huge win, but 3rd place was still good for a life-changing $150,000. Read more of his story here –> Deconstructing $150k Winner
DFS Army Daily Fantasy Football Tools
The Domination Station Optimizer is one of the most customizable optimization tools in the industry. Our Daily Fantasy Football optimization tool (check out the tutorial here) on the Domination Station allows users to generate up to 200 fully stacked lineups at the push of a button. Users can control stacks all the way down to the player names. You can choose to stack Aaron Rodgers with his WR, or TE or RB or all three. You can set up the tool to include one of his opposing WR’s in the stacks. It’s easy to use and highly customizable. This season Draftkings and Fanduel are opening up 150 entry max contests for 0.25 or $1 per entry. There is a 500K entrant quarter GPP sitting in the Fanduel lobby right now for week one of the NFL season. Using the Domination Station Optimizer, our members can max out these contests in for the main and prime time slates. $37.50 to max out 150 entries in the contest with a top prize of $5000.
Here is just one example of MME in action and winning based on our coaching and tools
For more winning examples, and to see what is possible at DFS Army, check our Wall of Wins!!
Our Approach for 2018
Earlier, I talked about some of the player selection and lineup construction methodologies we focused on to find success in the past. As I mentioned above, the approach to success in daily fantasy football industry is constantly evolving because the masses are better informed today. It’s up to us to stay ahead of the curve. As an example, in the past, we could simply look at the team and game totals to get an idea of which games we should be targeting for our player pool.
The problem with that methodology is two-fold. First, everyone else is looking at that same data and targeting players from those games. That creates a situation where ownership is so high for players in those contests so that even if you are right and those players perform well, you don’t get an edge because so many others have the same core. Second, the DFS operators are aggressively pricing player salaries to reflect matchups and team totals. Basically, when you notice a game has a 50+ point projection total you can expect that the salaries from the players in those games have been jacked up by the DFS operators to reflect the game outlook. So, even if you are right and it is a high scoring affair, the players from that game may not exceed salary based expectations because their salaries already reflected the expectation that the game would be high scoring.
We have jumped ahead of the DFS curve in three key areas this year.
NEW TOOLS FOR NFL DFS 2018
This season we are integrating advanced ownership projections to our NFL Research Station and Domination Station Optimizer to quickly identify the chalkiest plays and players on the main slates. A few years ago there was a major controversy about employees of the DFS operators playing on other DFS sites because the assumption was made that having actual ownership data gave them an unfair advantage on the field. We don’t have actual ownership data, obviously, but our ownership projection source is one of the most accurate in the industry. People pay $30-$50 per month for just ownership projections. Here, it’s just a small part of the tools DFS Army VIP’s can take advantage of, and we include it with our VIP package!
Sample Ownership Report for 2018
Of all the new tools we are introducing this season, the correlation matrix is the one I’m personally the most excited about. We already know the key to winning DFS tournaments is by creating highly correlated lineups. There are alot of variables that go in to DFS and lineup construction in general but the one absolute is if your studs don’t produce, you aren’t winning a tournament. With that in mind, we take that absolute truth and look at ways we can build around it. If my QB is having a monster day, who is benefitting? In the past we’ve used a generic “correlation matrix” which in generic terms said that a QB fantasy scoring is 48% correlated with his WR1. 33% with his TE1, 8% with his RB etc. The problem with this generic matrix is that the stats are taken from the NFL as a whole as opposed to that specific team and QB. Some team’s have a pass catching RB as an example that is more correlated to their QB then the average. Some teams don’t have a pass catching TE. Each team is unique and we are bringing a correlation matrix that is broken down by the specific team and players. We will be able to narrow down our stacks like never before using this unique tool.
Below is an example of how we use specific correlations vs traditional correlations
This is the final piece of the 2018 puzzle. A few months ago the Supreme Court struck down the law banning sports gambling outside of Nevada. Sports betting is going to become all the rage in the coming months. At the DFS Army, we just launched our “Beat the Bookie” subscription where we use advanced data modeling to identify situations to exploit for betting purposes. Our models have been in play for the past few months focusing mainly on WNBA and MLB. We are applying those models to NFL as well this season. What does this have to do with daily fantasy football? I believe the key to success at DFS is not by identifying the games projected to be high scoring. Everyone already knows what those games are. The key is to identify games in which the projections are wrong. We want to identify games with middling or low projected totals that will play to the over and target those players in our DFS lineups. On the flipside, we want to identify games with high projected totals that we expect will play to the under and fade those players.
Pro Coaching And Breakdowns
Our Daily Fantasy Football team this season includes multiple pro coaches and over 10 scheduled articles and cheat sheets on a weekly basis. When we ask our subscribers what they like most about being DFS Army VIP’s, they generally say its the coaching. Our pros don’t just put a cheat sheet together or do a podcast. They are in our slack group answering questions and discussing slate strategies directly with the membership. Here’s a little background on the DFS Army NFL coaches and what you can expect this season:
Meet the NFL Staff – 2018 NFL Introductions!
Geek: Every week you will get my “Geek’s Picks” weekly cheat sheet where I list my top plays on for the week at every position and break them down according to the types of contests they should be used (Cash, GPP, Hybrid) and appropriate tournament stacking options. The goal is to start by identifying the chalk and then fanning out to find low owned gems in under the radar spots. That will be followed up by my VIP podcast exclusively for DFS Army members where I cover all the plays and strategies in greater detail. Geek’s Picks and the VIP podcast generally come out on Fridays every week of the season. I’ll follow those up by posting notes in my slack channel on Sunday mornings with any new thoughts or pivots based on any news items that may hit after Friday’s content comes out. In DFS, reacting to late-breaking news is one of the most critical things we can do. I’m generally in my channel answering member questions through Sunday around noon when I’ll shut that down and concentrate on rounding out my lineups. On Sunday afternoon I’ll release my “Primetime” VIP podcast that will cover mass-multi entry strategy for the 2 games primetime slate. You can find me in the #geek-speak channel in slack.
Mitch: AKA “DFSnDONUTS” is bringing his groundbreaking GPP mass multi-entry strategy, which has literally been crushing MLB and NBA this past season, to our daily fantasy football product. I can’t wait to test out his approach in daily fantasy football. This season both Fanduel and Draftkings have opened up low-cost contests to mass multi-entry. As I type this, Fanduel has a 0.25 per entry contest open in their lobby with 600K total entrants that allows for 150 entries ($37.50) per user. Spoiler alert – going with a chalk approach in a 600K entrant contest will not yield positive results. We can have fun using game theory approaches in this contest to try and find that unique approach to win the contest. You can find him in the #Daily-Donuts channel in slack.
Kyle “Big Marley” Marley is back this season and going to be doing a Draftkings focused player picks cheat sheet each week of the season as well as some Pick-Em strategies. Kyle is fresh off an appearance in the Draftkings Live Pick-Em NFL championships. He will be in his channel #big-marley-nfl answering questions about the slate and generally recommending Julio Jones every week of the season.
Daniel “Dabbinpuggle” Weprin is the newest member of the DFS Army NFL team. Dan not only has an awesome avatar, he boasts over half a million in lifetime DFS winnings. Dan is a full time DFS pro. He brings a wealth of general DFS knowledge to the table and focuses on tournament entries. Dan will be doing a regular weekly column, joining us on podcasts and putting together his own cheat sheets on a weekly basis. You can find him his coaching channel in our team slack group #puggle-nfl.
“Choppodong” Chop is back and up to his usual tricks. His coaching focus has always been geared more toward teaching members the essentials of bankroll management and slate research. You can find him in slack in his coaching channel #Choptalk.
DFSupNorth, ThunderDan and DFSSniper all have weekly columns set to go for NFL season as well. DFSupNorth is continuing his chalk donkey column identifying chalk plays and pivots. Dan will be looking at our correlation matrix and sharing highly correlated stacking options for tourment entries. Sniper is looking at Draftkings “Tiers” games and how to build correlated lineups in that format.
What you see above is a preview of our new and improved Research Station for the DFS NFL season. But, speaking of fantasy football, let’s talk a little about becoming a member and what has changed in that arena…errr, stadium.
Introducing Tiered Membership Options
Here in the DFS Army, we understand people have to make choices in life. So, we thought we’d offer people some choices when it comes to us, too. We now have three options for you, provided you qualify…
FREE Trial – Simply follow the requirements, and make a qualifying deposit into one of the listed DFS sites, and we offer the ability to test drive us (all access) for 30 days. Come see what all the coaching and interaction can do for your game! FREE TRIAL OFFER
DFS Army LITE – A new budget-friendly option that unlocks all of our premium content and all of our tools, including the Domination Station Optimizer with Ownership Projections, Research Stations, Cheatsheets, Articles and Podcasts………for ALL sports (NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA, Nascar, NHL, MMA, EPL, Tennis, and WNBA….sports coverage does vary by popularity of sport; some of the smaller sports are handled strictly through slack at this time). Not bad for only $29.99/month! DFS ARMY LITE
Full Access VIP – However, for only $15/month more, you unlock the real value….the coaching and private slack forums containing all the experts, pros, and coaches completely dedicated to helping you reach your DFS potential. You receive everything listed previously in our DFS LITE package plus our Slack Chat Forums! Get the teaching, conversation, community, slate breakdowns, last minute changes, late-breaking news (think about that for NBA), and most importantly the ability to ask questions directly to the coaches….and actually get timely answers. Survey upon survey reinforces we are the most responsive team in all of daily fantasy sports, and it’s not close. At other sites, we hear you cross your fingers in hopes of your favorite author clarifying his point. With DFS Army, you will quickly find we live in Slack, and our coaches are around almost 24/7. With more than 12 coaches, 20 writers, 40+ on staff, and 1500+ members (and rapidly growing), we have you covered when it comes to the newest DFS player or the cagiest of veterans. You simply cannot afford to miss the opportunity to join us and improve your game! FULL ACCESS VIP
Secret Value Option – For the player who knows what they want, we offer a discounted price through our annual membership option. Gain full VIP access for only $37.50/mo when you invest annually….our best value ever. ANNUAL VIP OPTION
DFS Football 2018 Extra Point
There is no better place in all of daily fantasy sports to cut your time and research down. Add in the optimizer, new tool additions, and coaching from pros/experts in their respective sports that are absolutely dedicated to making you a better player, and you will not find a better value for your DFS play. That much, I can most definitely assure you.
But, don’t take my word for it. Listen to our members rave about what they’ve learned and how much our coaches play a part in their development…
I could show you these all day long, but at some point you just have to invest in yourself and join the winning team. Don’t let opportunity continue to pass you by.