The Geek's Week 2 Fanduel and Draftkings NFL Daily Fantasy Football Player Picks and Vegas Lines Analysis

The Geek’s Week 2 Fanduel and Draftkings NFL Daily Fantasy Football Player Picks and Vegas Lines Analysis

Week one is in the books and as expected it was a strange week. So many studs didn’t pay off. The Vegas lines for the week were very far off the mark as well. That’s how it goes in the first week of a season. As I mentioned last week some teams and players take a few games to get up to speed. This happens every season. If you haven’t already done so please take the time to read my “2015 Season Introduction” column which covers a bit about who I am and what we are doing here. It also has links to all of the strategy content and info about how to get a FREE Premium VIP Membership to The Geek’s DFS Army.

Week one was all over the place for me. My Thursday lineups did really well. All in on Gronk always helps. My Sunday lineups were a mixed bag. On Fanduel my all in combo of Jets D and McManus alongside playing Ivory in most of my lineups really helped. I was up around 33% on my entries when all was said and done. My Draftkings result wasn’t as good. Eddie Royal and Adrian Peterson led the “screwed my lineups” list over there ending down 40% on my entries. I went heavily in the top heavy week 1 Milly Maker which almost always leads to losses. I can’t stress enough that you should avoid top heavy promotional contests for bankroll management purposes. Ideally stick with smaller GPP’s in the 1000 to 10K entrants range ideally single entry contests. I put some money in play on Starsdraft as well last week. Wound up with a 50% gain there and came very close to taking down a GPP. The competition there seems softer then on Draftkings and Fanduel to me.

Recency Bias

The buzzword for this week is Recency Bias. It’s the tendency of the mob to assume that what happened last week will happen again this week. “Last week Mariotta went nuts for 4TD’s so he will probably do it again this week”. Or “OBJ put up a stinker last week so he must suck now”. Statistically it’s difficult to see through the noise in a one game sample size when making lineup decisions. We want to walk the delicate line between recency bias and statistical noise. I believe the best way to do so is to continue to trust the Vegas sharps in their assessments. They will be right more often then not. As sharp daily fantasy football players we want to take advantage of recency bias as much as possible by not allowing that to cloud our judgement too much from week to week. In addition the big sites released week 2 pricing before the games were done on Sunday so the opportunity is once again there to take advantage of some discrepancies between salary and expected production. We had some significant injuries week one that will lead to some outsized values for week 2. Ellington and Dez are the big ones. I’ll cover this later in the Vegas Lines Analysis.

VIP Members

Here are some tweets I got this week:

@FFootballGeek VIP Membership already paid for itself in week 1!Came in 2nd place in a 250 player league with the lineup suggested! Thanks!

— Eric Gonzalez (@DJEricGonzalez) September 15, 2015

@FFootballGeek Very happy with your VIP deal. Made my $40 back week one and then a little. Thanks!

— texan0322 (@texan0322) September 15, 2015

@FFootballGeek thanks for the amazing advice to build my lineups! Cashed on quite a few!

— Joshua Worthen (@JD_Worthen) September 15, 2015

We kicked off our VIP Membership program last week and it has been a great success. DFS Army VIP members get a weekly newsletter complete list of player picks for Fanduel and Draftkings. I highlight my favorite plays of the week and highlight Chalk, GPP Only and All In plays. In addition they get sample cash lineups for Fanduel and Draftkings. They also get links to download two Daily Fantasy Football Strategy eBooks with almost 400 pages of advanced statistics, lineup construction methodologies and bankroll management advice. I also put together a members only forum where premium members can discuss player picks, strategies and critique lineups. It’s was an incredible first week and I’m almost shocked at how active the forum already is. You can get a VIP Membership to the Geek’s DFS Army FREE by registering for Draftkings or Fanduel via the links below. If you already have accounts on both sites its just $39,95 for the 2015 season.

I prefer to give you the VIP Membership for free! We have tons of goodies embedded in our Draftkings and Fanduel links! Bots sites are giving out entries in their weekly Millionaire Makers to all new depositing accounts on top of the 100% deposit matches! Basically for a $10 deposit you get $80+ dollars of benefits! Use the links below to register then email me at [email protected] to set up your VIP Membership!

Click Here To Register For Fanduel – Remember to use Promo Code: CHIEFST ***For September 2015 we have set up an added bonus. On top of the deposit match, New Fanduel Accounts that use our referral code will get a ticket ($25 value) to enter that weeks Fanduel Sunday Million Contest

Click Here to Register For Draftkings – No need for a promo code on Draftkings, it is already embedded in the link! ***For September 2015 we have set up an added bonus. On top of the deposit match, New Draftkings Accounts will get a ticket ($20 value) to enter that weeks Draftkings Millionaire Maker Contest

Once you register a new account and make your initial deposit you get our VIP Membership package free for the 2015 season. Email me at [email protected] with the site and your user name and say “Hey Geek, Give me the VIP Package”

If you already have accounts but still want the complete VIP Membership package use the paypal button below:

VIP MEMBERSHIP

StarsDraft Free Bankroll Builder – Everyone should check out this newer Daily Fantasy Sports site. PokerStars recently purchased Victiv and relaunched as StarsDraft. There are tons of new sites that pop up all the time and I normally ignore them. This one is different and I believe it has already become the #3 daily fantasy site. They have a bankroll builder program where they start new users off with $15 worth of incredibly easy to win contests to get your bankroll going. They have freerolls galore and the backing of a big pockets company that knows how to treat their players right. Tons of rake back bonuses and VIP type incentives. I played a bit there last season using the free account builder and quickly build up a little bankroll of over $100 without ever having deposited. Most of the players there are complete fish so the competition is very winnable. The best part is that the account builder is completely free so you never need to have made a deposit.

TRY STARSDRAFT FREE AND GET $15 TO BUILD YOUR BANKROLL

VEGAS LINES
Key – RED = Avoid this offense outside of unusual values
GREEN = Target players from this offense aggressively
White – Neutral – Not a situation to avoid. Use these teams to find lower owned studs for GPP differentiation as well as special value plays

Date & Time	Favorite	Line	Underdog	Total
9/17 8:25 ET	At Kansas City	-3	Denver	42
9/20 1:00 ET	At Carolina	-3	Houston	40.5
9/20 1:00 ET	At New Orleans	-9.5	Tampa Bay	47
9/20 1:00 ET	At Pittsburgh	-5.5	San Francisco	45
9/20 1:00 ET	At Minnesota	-3	Detroit	43.5
9/20 1:00 ET	New England	-1	At Buffalo	45
9/20 1:00 ET	Arizona	-2	At Chicago	45
9/20 1:00 ET	Tennessee	-1	At Cleveland	41.5
9/20 1:00 ET	At Cincinnati	-3.5	San Diego	45.5
9/20 1:00 ET	St. Louis	-3.5	At Washington	42
9/20 1:00 ET	At NY Giants	-2	Atlanta	51
9/20 4:05 ET	Baltimore	-7	At Oakland	41.5
9/20 4:05 ET	Miami	-6	At Jacksonville	41.5
9/20 4:25 ET	At Philadelphia	-5.5	Dallas	55.5
9/20 8:30 ET	At Green Bay	-3.5	Seattle	48.5

Monday Night Football Line


9/21 8:30 ET	At Indianapolis	-7	NY Jets	46.5

Thursday Night

At Kansas City -3 Denver 42

KC squares off against the Broncos in a show me game on Thursday night. The O/U is on the low side for this one. This is a show me game because Peyton Manning needs to show us that he isn’t finished. Lets face it, he looked like shit last week. I’m not sure how much of that was just a random bad day on week one and how much of it was more indicative of an older player that has declined rapidly. We shall see this week. I’m not looking to target the Denver Offense at all in this one. I generally prefer fading Thursday games for many reasons but when the O/U is low that’s another good reason.

For the Chiefs, Travis Kelce aka Baby Gronk had a breakout game week one. Recency bias tells me he will be heavily targeted in DFS lineups this week. For those that don’t want to fade this game completely Kelce is in play as well as Charles. The Broncos CB’s are really good. Between Talib and Chris Harris Jr. they shut down Ravens WR’s last week. If the Chiefs score it will probably go through Charles or Kelce in this game.

Elite Plays Kelce, Charles

Sunday Games

At Carolina -3 Houston 40.5

Vegas is looking for a low scoring game here and I tend to agree, If Houston were home their D would be in play. I don’t play Defenses on the road unless the circumstances are compelling (see Baltimore D this week). This isn’t the case here. Both teams play good Defense and I expect a low scoring slug fest. There is some GPP appeal here with names like Olsen, Mallet and Hopkins. It’s notable that the Carolina Coaching Staff mentioned specifically about needing to find ways to get Olsen more involved in the offense this week. Outside of that this game is mostly an avoid.

Elite Plays – None

GPP Plays – Mallet, Hopkins, Olsen, Panthers D

At New Orleans -9.5 Tampa Bay 47

This game has an interesting line but the gist of it is that Vegas expects the Saints to open up a can of whoop ass on the Bucs. For the Bucs Jameis Winston had a rough outing week 1. Chalk it up to a rookie starting his first NFL game ever without his team’s top weapon (Evans), Still the suckfest was strong on both sides of the ball for the Bucs. They allowed fellow rookie QB Mariota to shred them for 4 TD’s on just 16 passes. Drew Brees is a lot better then Mariotta and I expect him to have an easy day on Sunday. I’m concerned about targeting the Saints passing game here because the game could get out of control fast. Still, Sean Peyton has never been one to let off the gas with a lead. The one player that will benefit the most from this line is Mark Ingram. RB’s like him do best in games where their teams are protecting a lead. That should be the case this week.

Elite Plays Mark Ingram, Drew Brees, Cooks

Secondary Plays: B Coleman, Saints D

At Pittsburgh -5 San Francisco 45

We all just finished watching the 49ers shred the Vikings on Monday Night. People may be thinking that this team looks pretty good. I don’t buy it at all. That game was more about the Vikings sucking then the 49ers being good. One good thing that happened Monday night was the annual Reggie Bush injury. That left Hyde as the bellcow back for San Francisco and he didn’t disappoint. Since that game was played after salaries for week 2 were set we are left with a special value for Hyde on most sites salary wise. Pittsburgh’s D is not good at all and, assuming that Kaepernick doesn’t implode, the 49ers should be able to do some scoring in this one.

On the Pittsburgh side its all hands on deck! Look for the Steelers to score early and often against a depleted 49er defense. Ben to Brown will be an elite stack this week. Wheaton and Deangelo Williams make for solid value plays as well.

Elite Plays Big Ben, Antonio “Who’s That” Brown, DeAngelo Williams, Carlos Hyde

Value Plays Wheaton

At Minnesota -3 Detroit 43.5

Minnesota looked like shit on Monday night. They somehow seemed to forget to use AP giving him just 5 carries in the 1st half. **Geek Tip – When a team forgets to use their stud player in a game then loses said game the coaches generally tend to make a concerted effort to feed that player in the next game. Teddy “KGB” Bridgewater was a mess out there. Could it have been opening day jitters for a young QB? Perhaps but I’m not sure a solid Detroit D is the team to get right against. Looking at the line it seems strange that Minnesota is favored here. I’m going to wait and see if that line changes at the week progresses. Still this game is probably GPP only across the board. One important note from week 1, The Vikings targeted Wallace much more then Charles Johnson in that game. Wallace appears to be the WR1 over there.

For Detroit, Megatron is healthy and always in play. Abdullah looked really good in the scat back role for them last week and should quickly take over as the primary runner in Detroit. Detroit D also makes decent play on the road this week but its GPP only for me.

Elite Plays: None

GPP Plays: Peterson, Megatron, Abdullah, Detroit D

New England -1 At Buffalo 45

Another tricky game for DFS purposes. Buffalo’s D is legit. They handled Luck last week and should be able to contain Brady this week. On offense Buffalo doesn’t have anything all that exciting to offer. Industry pricing on Taylor has gone up to the point where most of the value is gone. Watkins put up a zero last week while Percy Harvin went crazy. Will that happen again this week? I have no idea. Harvin has never been a very consistent player. That said, Buffalo is at home and the Patriots Defense isn’t very good.

Elite Plays: None

Secondary Plays: Gronk, Harvin, Watkins, Edelman, Brady, Taylor

Arizona -2 At Chicago 45

The 45 point line on this game is right in the middle of the pack for week 2. Arizona heads to Chicago sporting a solid defense across the board. Chicago on the other hand looked like crap against the Packers last week. The thing is the Packers own the Bears and have for quite some time. They should presumably bounce back this week at home. Forte and Alshon remain elite plays this week while Royal, if healthy, makes for a nice wr punt.

Arizona looked good last week and I expect more of the same this week. Their offense is tricky because they spread the looks equally between all three recievers. There is no true #1 WR here. I still like John “The Sherrif: Brown in GPP’s because of his big play upside and industry wide cheap price point. At RB Ellington’s annual injury happened early in week one. Coach Arians has stated that CJ2K is the primary RB for week 2 but expect D. Johnson to get decent share of the touches as well. CJ2K is one of the cheapest starting running backs across all the sites this week and he is facing a team that isn’t great against the run. You do the math.

Elite Plays: Forte, Alshon, CJ2K

Secondary Plays: John Brown, Eddie Royal, Palmer, Fitzgerald

Tennessee -1 At Cleveland 41.5Recency bias tells me that people will be all over the Mariotta to Wright stack for this game. Vegas sees this one as a low scoring and close affair. I’m not really trusting that Mariotta will deliver 4TD’s off of 13 completions again. That said he looked poised last week and didn’t even need to use his legs. I kind of like Sankey in this one as well because of the way he was used in last weeks game combined with the fact that Cleveland sports the leagues worst defense versus the run, With all that said Mariotta may be at the start of one of those special runs. Think RG3 his rookie season. If you want to get on the train before it leaves the station it may make sense to stack him in some GPP’s.

For Cleveland it looks like it’s Jonny Football time. I’m not sure that’s such a great thing but anything is better then McCown. Cleveland has no notable pass catchers so no need to worry about who to stack him with. Better yet, just don’t play him at all. I suppose Crowell is playable in this game as a GPP punt.

Elite Plays: None
GPP Only: Mariotta, Wright, Tennessee Defense

At Cincinnati -3.5 San Diego 45.5

This is another tweener O/U that I think is very usable for DFS purposes. Vegas predicts a close game and it makes sense. These two teams are evenly matched and I could see a scenario where this one becomes a shootout. For the Chargers last week we saw breakout performances for Stevie Johnson, Ladarius Green and Keenan Allen. Allen was a targets machine with over 15 receptions in the game. Danny Woodhead was the back to own for PPR DFS purposes and saw most of the goal-line work.

For the Bengals last week was all about Eifert and Hill. Eifert had the breakout game I talked about in the writeup last week. I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance but he is still priced cheap across all the sites and is very much in play. A.J. Green was a disappointment last week but I expect him to bounce back in this spot. Jeremy Hill is a matchup proof stud every week.

Elite Plays: AJ Green, Keenan Allen, Jeremy Hill

Secondary Plays: Rivers, Dalton, Stevie Johnson, Eifert, Ladarius Green, Woodhead

St. Louis -3.5 At Washington 42

Washinton is bad. Rams have a very good defense. The O/U is very low here. I like whomever the Rams trot out at RB this week but I’m not sure as of this writing if that is Cunningham or Mason. In particular I like Benny if Mason is out again.

Elite: Ram D, Cunningham

Secondary: Austin, Garcon, Foles, Cousins

At NY Giants -2 Atlanta 51

Now THIS is a tasty matchup!! CHALK ALERT! All hands on deck for what is shaping up to be a shootout. We have a close game with a high O/U. We have two teams that are allergic to playing defense. We have two fantastic offenses. I love it!

For Atlanta last week it was a great game all around. Matt Ryan looked sharp and Julio Jones made my preseason prediction that he would be the top WR in fantasy this season look prophetic. Even Roddy White looked good out there. At RB Tevin Coleman appeared to be the lead back with Freeman working the scat back role. Without a notable TE there are tons of targets available for Jones and White in this one.

For the Giants it was a disappointing week one fantasy wise and to make matters worse an Eli Manning clock management gaffe probably cost them the game. The Giants will be smarting from the loss and looking for payback. Much like I mentioned earlier when teams forget to use their studs in a game then lose they tend to adjust the game plan the following week to compensate. ODB was a forgotten man last week but he will be in play big time this week.Chalk Plays: Manning, Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, ODB
Secondary Plays: Ruben Randle, Roddy White, Tevin Coleman

Baltimore -7 At Oakland 41.5

Lets keep this one simple. Baltimore is heavily favored on the road and by all measures it looks like they are headed to California to open up a can of whoop ass on the Raiders. Oakland may be without David Carr in this one and are looking at rolling out the awful Mcgloin(SP?). Avoid all Raiders players in this one.For Baltimore it’s pretty much all hands on deck. Triple S was held to one reception last weekend. Talib apparently owns him. Look for a bounce-back game here Smitty. Forsett is also in line for a decent game though the game script may favor Allen as the time killer as the blowout ensues. Baltimore Defense is one of 3 or 4 elite D plays that I will be going all in on this week.

Elite Plays: Steve Smith Sr. Baltiomre D
Secondary Plays: Flacco, Forsett

Miami -6 At Jacksonville 41.5

The Jaguars have been one of the most generous teams to opposing defenses over the past 17 games and Vegas expects that to continue this week. Miami is a heavy road favorite here. This game sets up well for Lamar Miller and the Miami D. Avoid the Jaguars completely here in a game Vegas expects them to score around 14 points in.

Elite Plays: Miami D, Lamar Miller
Secondary Plays: Tannehill, Landry, Cameron

At Philadelphia -5.5 Dallas 55.5

CHALK ALERT!! When you see two teams highlighted in green on the Vegas Lines chart, that is generally a primary game to target for DFS purposes. This one has the highest line of the week and you should be excited to roll out the players in this one for your lineups.For Philiadelphia we have a revenge narrative for DeMarco Murray. You got to love that. What I didn’t love was the way Chip Kelly mixed in a ton of Ryan Matthews last week. Murray only got 9 rushing yards in the game. I still like Murray for this one but the upside is limited by the lack of available touches for all three RB’s. Sam Bradford to Matthews is an elite stack this week and will be featured in many cash and GPP lineups. Many people will probably jump on board the Sproles train this week but I won’t be one of them. He is a gameflow dependent back that will get very limited touches. The floor is too low for my taste even if the ceiling is decently high. Agholor didn’t do anything week one and I’d stay away until he shows that he is an intricate part of the game plan for Philiadelphia. Ertz is a sneaky TE punt this week as well.

For Dallas they enter the game without stud WR Dez Bryant. Who gets those looks? Probably a combination of Terrance Williams and Cole “Reddish Blonde Hair, Flowing Mullet, Tattered Hand Me Down Uniform, You Must Be A” Beasley Last week Jason Witten got all the looks he could handle and delivered big fantasy points. I’d expect that to continue this week as well. In the running game if last week was any indication we should expect Joseph Randle to once again carry the load. DMC was a bit of an afterthought last weekend as Lance Dunbar got a good number of looks in the hurry up/3rd down role.

Elite Plays: Bradford, Matthews, Murray, Terrance Williams, Joseph Randle, Witten
Secondary Plays: Ertz, Beasley, Romo

Sunday Night

At Green Bay -3.5 Seattle 48.5

The lines here show a close and high scoring game. Both of these teams are Super Bowl contenders and both are good at everything. This is the type of game to target in GPP lineups because most people will see Seattle and think tough defense. Avoid. I know this because that was my first thought when I saw the lines. Then I thought some more and I kind of love this game for DFS purposes.

Aaron Rodgers was in mid-season form last week and I’d expect that to continue at home this week. One benefit to not playing against an awful team like the Bears is that there is a good chance the Packers will need to put up points in this game to keep up. Davonte Adams was a bit of a disappointment last week but I’m not giving up on him. He got some targets and yardage. Old man Jones just vultured the Tuddies. Speaking of Jones he will be a weekly boom or bust TD dependent WR. The kind of player to throw in the flex spot on Draftkings in one of many GPP lineups. Randal Cobb is beastly here as is Lacy.

For Seattle the story is the same. They will need to score on offense to keep up this week. Wilson to Graham looked good last week and that is the stack to use in this one. Tyler Lockett also makes for an interesting play because he starts at WR and returns kickoffs and punts for Seattle. He is an electric player that will have big games this season. He is similar to Jones with the high ceiling low floor combo best utilized in GPP’s. Look for Beast Mode to be unleashed in this one as well as the Seattle Coaching Staff attempts to slow down the game and limit Rodgers touches.

Elite Plays: Russel Wilson, Jimmy Graham, Beast Mode, Rodgers, Eddie Lacy, Davonte Adams, Randall Cobb
Secondary Plays: Tyler Lockett, James Jones

Monday Night

At Indianapolis -7 NY Jets 46.5

My beloved Jets head out to Indy to take on a Colts team coming off a tough loss to the Bills. TY Hilton looks to be out for this game leaving Moncrief as the #2 WR. The Jets lost #2 CB Cromartie last week. You do the math. Realistically the Jets are still strong in their secondary and all around defense. The key to figuring out this game will be to predict where Revis is used. If he blankets Andre Johnson then Moncrief should be peppered with targets.

The Jets are actually more interesting to me from a fantasy perspective in this game. The Colts Run defense has never been good and if I was Todd Bowles I’d want to limit Luck’s touches by running the rock like crazy. There is a certain gameflow possibility that has Ivory getting tons of touches in this game. The problem is if the Colts get off to an early big lead that gameplan goes out the window. I also really like Brandon Marshall in this game. Fitzpatrick is competent at QB and chances are the Jets will be playing catchup at some point. Marshall and Decker should each get targeted quite a bit. I prefer Marshall a bit because he is the #1 WR but either guy could have a big game this week.

Elite Plays: Ivory
Secondary Plays: Moncrief, Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker

Some Final Tidbits:

That’s it for The Geek’s Vegas Lines Analysis and Player Picks column this week. DFS Army VIP Members can expect a newsletter on Wednesday with specific player picks for Fanduel and Draftkings with recommended stacks and ALL IN plays split between Cash, GPP or Both. In addition I will include some cash optimized lineup samples for both Fanduel and Draftkings. You can use those as is or ideally take the samples and make some swaps to make them your own. If you took advantage of our eBook promotion last season and want to get in on the VIP Slack Chat room let me know. Slack Chat is free for anyone that used our e-book promotion last season. If you haven’t joined our premium membership plan you might want to consider doing so now. It’s FREE for new referrals and just $40 for the season if you aren’t new. That’s just over $2 per week for a service that will go a long way to helping you make money at this hobby we all love. This is the hopefully the beginning of a season long journey together. There will be ups and downs for sure but hopefully the ups will be higher and more frequent then the downs. Remember to hit me up on Twitter @ffootballgeek or via email [email protected]

To become a VIP Member for the 2015 Season hit the Buy Now button below!

**Please ignore any spelling or grammar errors you may come across in these articles. This column takes hours to research and write. I try to focus on providing great content and advice but I’m not a writer by trade and who really gives a shit if a players name is spelled wrong. You know who I mean.

For those of you reading this via the app we launched last season – please download our new FREE app HERE. Last seasons APP is basically shut down and we can not send push notifications there any more so you may be missing out on some Freeroll and Player alerts. I also greatly appreciate positive reviews in the Play Store so don’t be shy.

Finally, I appreciate your feedback. Hit me up to let me know how you did.

Good luck this week!

VIP MEMBERSHIP