How and Why I Drafted 60% Justin Jefferson in Best Ball

 

This is admittedly a bit of a click bait headline. I do not have 60% Jefferson over the entirety of my roughly 200 entry pre-draft best ball portfolio. That would a “bold strategy, Cotton.”

I did, however, manage to get 60% of the Vikings star in the latest contest to drop on Underdog, the Little Board 2.

The answer to the “how” I got to 60% is pretty straightforward. I simply drafted him every time he was available to me in the first round, regardless of what pick I drew. His current ADP is 6.3, which means that over a large enough sample size I should have gotten him in about half of my drafts. I was a bit luckier than expectation and secured Jefferson on 12 of a contest max 20 teams. It was a tough click the couple of times I selected him above CMC at 1 overall, but I stuck to the plan.

We are essentially entering the fifth year of the best ball boom. The is still edge to be found, but the field is getting sharper. With life changing money to be won, many smart drafters are putting the work in. They pay for good rankings/projections. They are allocating draft capital wisely, while stacking and correlating their rosters when possible. These sharp drafters may never touch grass, but they are max entering these contests. The basic strategies that used to provide a large edge are becoming merely the table stakes to compete.

In order to separate from an increasingly competitive field, I started thinking about ways to make rosters that will look different without giving up too much in expected value or projection.

I thought back to a conversation I had with Flex Shane on the DFS Army Podcast around this time last year. Christian McCaffrey was going 3rd overall, behind Jefferson and Chase. I said something to affect of “it’s impossible get a significantly overweight stance on CMC without being a nearly full fade on Jefferson and Chase.” With the benefit of hindsight we know that Jefferson and Chase underperformed relative to their ADP. Conversely, CMC absolutely smashed. That hypothetical McCaffrey drafter who took a triple the field, 25% stance printed money. What if I could get that 25% up over 50?

I decided to try taking a big overweight stance on a player in the late half of the first round that had a realistic path being the top scorer at his position. My initial idea for this player when the Big Board first opened in late January was Bijan Robinson. With major upgrades expected in coaching and QB play, I thought the second year Atlanta stud had more upside than all non-CMC RBs. With him generally going in the 8-12 range you could really take an overweight stance, if determined. Once the Falcons sign Kirk Cousins, all the major Atlanta pieces saw an immediate bump. With a current ADP of 5.4, Bijan no longer fit the bill quite as well.

I only did 10 entries in the $10 pre draft contest on Drafters, but on the last two teams I was able to score Justin Jefferson with the 8th overall pick. That signaled to me that the hate had gone too far. He was clearly being discounted due to the uncertainty at Minnesota’s quarterback position.

I don’t need to extol the virtues of Justin Jefferson to anyone reading a fantasy football article in April. In his first 3 years Jefferson tallied 1400, 1616, 1809 yards. In only 10 games played last season, he still managed to total 1074 yards. Half of those games took place after the Cousins injury. The man managed to catch 12 passes for 192 yards in week 18 from Nick Mullens. I think he’ll be fine with JJ McCarthy, Sam Darnold, or whatever other rookie passer the Vikings trade up for. He’s probably the best receiver in the league and he’s still only 24 years old.

In my personal rankings I have Jefferson behind McCaffrey, Lamb, and Chase. If we are splitting hairs between what I view as the top 3 WRs, I’d rather have Dak or Burrow throwing to my guy than the question mark in Minnesota. That said, it’s close and no one would be shocked if Jefferson reclaimed the top spot. (I have Tyreek as 4th, a notch behind top 3, as he 5 years older than all of them and ended the season nursing an injury. I certainly wouldn’t fault anyone for including him in that group, though.)

This is a strategy about opportunity, not projection. Even if I like Ceedee a hair more than Jefferson, with his 2.3 ADP, it’s impossible to get 60% Lamb in a large field contest.

Winning money in best ball really comes down to two things, advancing as many well constructed teams as possible to playoffs, and having the guys that go nuclear and are needed to advance in week 15 or 16, and win in week 17. It’s uncomfortable to think about how random the second part of that equation is, especially when you factor in pod luck.

If Justin Jefferson has a big season by his standards, he going to be a high advance rate player and it’s likely that he’s going to give you at least 1 or 2 big playoff weeks. This strategy gives me the chance to put the most combinations of players around him to hunt the random spike weeks. No one is going to have more Justin Jefferson than me in this contest. Which means no one going to have a better chance pairing him with the week 16 Amari Cooper of last year or the week 17 Mike Evans of 2022.

It’s not just about the total volume of combinations, it is also about the unique combinations that this strategy will produce. By jumping up in ADP to take him, you will have him paired with other players that he is very rarely coupled with. For example, I drafted Jefferson first overall twice. On one team I paired him with DJ Moore and Chris Olave on the 2/3 turn. On the other I got DJ Moore and Stefon Diggs. Moore, Diggs, and Olave all consistently go on that 2/3 turn, so are very rarely going to be paired together with Jefferson. If they all happen to spike on the same playoff week I can really separate from the field.

I employed this strategy in the Little Board 2, one because it was the only contest currently available to me, and two because it was a cheap way ($60 to max) to test an idea.  I don’t think I’ll try it in Best Ball Mania this year. I’m honestly not comfortable being a full fade on all of CMC, Ceedee, Tyreek, Chase, and Bijan in a contest that coast $3750 to max and has the biggest prize pool in the industry. We shall see if I’ll have the bank roll to do so, but I’d love to try to employ this strategy in a Puppy. If I could get that same 60% Jefferson it would equate to 90 teams in 150 max contest. Think of all unique player combinations that would result.

Drafting in this manner, even if only for a few weeks, helped me think about my exposures on a more micro (individual contest) level, than my normally macro view of my entire portfolio. This strategy has much less to do with player takes than pressing a perceived advantage in a particular contest. It feels preferable to have 60% Justin Jefferson in a time boxed GPP, where he seems a bit underpriced than to just have a flat 8 or 9% everywhere and hope that one of those team lucks into the nut player combo.

Last year on Underdog alone I entered around 25 different best ball tournaments and probably as many on DraftKings. There will be Pit Bulls, Poodles, Pomeranians, and countless other contests named after dog breeds where we can try to take unique stands.

If Justin Jefferson continues to go at pick 6 or later I may take a similar stance in a regular season contest. Maybe Tee Higgins stays a Bengal and Chase drops a couple spots, allowing me to take an over 50% stance on him in a particular tournament. If the Jets don’t draft a significant pass catcher in the first two rounds, I don’t think it would be crazy to attempt to leave a contest with near 100% Garrett Wilson. When explaining this strategy to a friend who is a sharp fantasy player, he suggested getting massively overweight 2nd round Achane could produce a great result. While risky, we certainly know he is capable of massive spike weeks.

Over the past couple years I’ve had better than average advance rates and have gotten 3 teams to the finals of major tournaments. Still, I haven’t shipped that life changing score. That is why I am trying to think outside the box to keep up with the best drafters in the industry. For me this means picking my spots in particular contests to take a massive overweight stance on early round players. Will it work? I don’t know. Even in contest as minor the Little Board 2 we still are trying to beat over 56,000 other teams. I do know that will enjoy taking somewhat different approach to drafting and seeing where the chips fall.

If you want test strategy or any of your own on Underdog sign up using the promo code DFSARMY.  They’ll match your first deposit up to $100.  I’ll see you in the draft rooms!