A well-adjusted NFL Best Ball grinder may have planned to take a brief break from drafting during the two weeks leading up to the Super Bowl. Maybe take the significant other on an overdue walk in the park. Finally binge that TV show that everyone’s been talking about.
Underdog had other plans, launching two big pre-draft contests on January 29th. The $10 per entry Big Board returned featuring 2 million in prizes with 200k to first. This year they also added a $3, 20 max, Little Board. Gotta love a contest that you can max enter for 60 bucks.
For reasons which I am not completely certain, The Big Board has been my most successful Best Ball tournament. I’ve reached the final two years in a row, including a 13th overall finish in 2022. Maybe I’m better at drafting early, maybe I’m more comfortable with the uncertainty than most, or perhaps it is just dumb luck, small sample size variance. That said, I draft relentlessly, hoping to book another trip to the final, and that the third time will be the charm.
I’ve thought about what worked well for me in past pre-draft contests and what I’ve observed in the 40 plus drafts I’ve already done this year. Here are a few notes that I believe will help you climb the Big and Little Board standings.
Detroit Lions receiver Jameson Williams celebrates his touchdown against the Chicago Bears during the fourth quarter at Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday, Nov. 19, 2023.
Lock in that Good Closing Line Value
We can’t stack for week 17 in these contests. The schedule isn’t out yet. It is difficult to correlate when we don’t know where the rookies and free agents will play. What we can do is build value in our player portfolios by hammering the obvious mispriced players.
A great example of this is Trey McBride. For some inexplicable reason the former Mackey Award winner opened this contest with a 10th round ADP of 114. Draft season isn’t even 10 days old, and McBride’s ADP has already moved 62 spots, to a seemingly fair 51.8. We are going to spend the next 8 months happily clicking on 4th or 5th round McBride, while sharp early drafters will be laughing with their 9th and 10th round shares.
Another interesting player is Jameson Williams. The former Alabama speedster has largely been a disappointment in his first two seasons after the Lions traded up to take him 12th overall. Jamo likely erased some of those negative feelings with a two TD performance in the NFC Championship game. We tend to remember what we saw last. Right or wrong, drafters will be influenced by Williams coming up big on the national stage. Adam Levitan said on a recent ETR pod that he ultimately expects Jameson to be drafted in the 5th or 6th round. He opened with a 10th round ADP of 112.1. Unlike McBride, Jameson’s ADP has jumped less than 10 spots to 102.5. There is still a lot of meat left on the bone relative to where I expect him to be drafted in the late summer/early fall.
This is not to say that players like McBride or Williams will be smash league winners at their early costs. I am still looking for a bank that will cash in all my closing line value on 2022 Dameon Pierce. We can’t win a Best Ball tournament in February, but we can build teams that will project significantly better than our competition on a week-to-week basis if we draft wisely.
Get Your Guys (Especially in the Late Rounds)
I can’t remember where I first read it, but I love the quote, “perfect is the enemy of good.” It didn’t matter at all if we drafted Kyren Williams in the 18th, 19th, or 20th round last season. All that mattered was that you got as many shares as possible. No one ever made a bad decision reaching two rounds for Puka Nacua. There is truly no difference between an 18th and 20th round Best Ball pick in February. These ADPs are going to change wildly in the coming months and the picks in this range are extremely speculative.
This lesson was reinforced to me the hard way in my first week of drafting. Andrei Iosivas is one of my favorite late round darts. He is a great athlete, who I believe is also a good football player. With both Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd potentially leaving this offseason, the young man they call Yoshi could see a much-increased role. Three times, in my first handful of drafts, I was sniped on Yoshi in the 20th round. On a couple of those teams, he would have fit quite well alongside Burrow and Chase. In hindsight, there was no reason to get cute. I should have locked in my guy a round early rather than taking some rookie running back I couldn’t pick out of a lineup, who is 50/50 to even end up on an active NFL roster.
I make a point to take big, overweight stands on late round players. Sam LaPorta was a smash for me last year. Jalin Hyatt, not so much. I like University of Kentucky running back Ray Davis this year. If he hits, it won’t make a bit of difference if I got him in the 18th or 19th round.
Lean into Perceived Uncertainty
At this time last season, it was widely reported that the Packers had tired of the Aaron Rodgers experience and were ready to move on to Jordan Love. Anyone paying attention knew Rodgers would be a Jet and Love would be the Green Bay starter, but it was a complicated trade that dragged on for weeks.
The pre-draft Best Ball market didn’t seem to fully buy into the logical conclusion that the trade was what all parties involved wanted, and that it would ultimately get done. I used this “perceived uncertainty” as an opportunity to load up on an underpriced Jordan Love. I’d be lying if I said that I was confident that Love was any good. I was confident, however, that he would be named the starter, and that his ADP would jump a couple rounds.
In a season where half the QBs we drafted got hurt, Love played every game and peaked at the perfect time for the Best Ball playoffs.
I believe the Tennessee Titans’ running back position is a spot where we can take advantage of perceived uncertainty this year. I feel pretty confident that Derrick Henry has played his last snap in Music City. He gave an emotional post-game speech week 18, saying goodbye to the Tennessee fans.
The Titans hired 39-year-old Brian Callahan on the strength of his work with QBs Joel Burrow and Jake Browning. The franchise is clearly turning over a new leaf. I sincerely doubt that includes saddling up the Big Dog for another run.
Tyjae Spears stood out to me as a clear buy at his 8th round, 92.5 ADP when these contests opened. Spears showed a versatile skill set backing up Henry as a rookie. He has already moved up into the 6th round with a current ADP of 68.5. I think he will jump another two rounds into 4th when Henry signs elsewhere and the starting job is clearly his to lose. I’ll look to be ahead of the news and get my shares now.
There is still one more game to be played before we completely move on to drafting for 2024. I hope everyone enjoys the Super Bowl. The Geek and the crew go deep on the Showdown Slate. If you want DFS Army VIP access and tools you can still get 24% any membership until the Big Game is over with the promo code PLAYOFFS.