NBA All Star Game 2018 DFS Slate
In case you don’t know who I am, my name is Ben and I go by xBenJamminx on Twitter and all of the DFS sites.
I recently joined up with the DFS Army and will be providing content for the site and it’s members. I specialize in small slates and NBA is one of my main focuses for DFS.
My DFS Army Slack Channel is #benjammin-nba-mlb
Here is an overview for today’s slate
What I did was go back and take the data from the last 3 years (2015-17) of the All Star game to see if there’s any trends we can identify. I show you how past games have played out and see if the past can help us with the future.
I’ve noticed a few patterns that may help us and I’ll highlight them with pictures.
I made a spreadsheet for the games tonight which I’ll be referencing but if you want to access it you can find it by clicking the NBA logo here ..
NBA All Star Game Stats and History
| Year | Date | Result | MVP |
| 2017 | 19-Feb-17 | West 192, East, 182 | Anthony Davis |
| 2016 | 14-Feb-16 | West 196, East, 173 | Russell Westbrook |
| 2015 | 15-Feb-15 | West 163, East, 158 | Russell Westbrook |
Just like the Rising Stars I noticed from the data was that in the past 3 years, whoever was starting for the teams got significantly more playing time and opportunity than the reserves.
Something VERY important to note that the All Star game is different this year with Curry and Lebron being captains, so I’ll treat Curry’s team like the West and Lebron like the East. The teams aren’t exactly West/East by the players but we’ll try to figure out as much as we can from past games and the players themselves.
The main difference between the Rising Stars and this game is we have many players who have already played in the previous all star games so we can get a glimpse of what they’ve done and how we can use that to our advantage.
First pic is both teams combined.
What we can see here is that if we know the starters, we know who is going to get the production, or at least opportunity for that production.
Between the two teams, it looks like the West has been slightly more concentrated for production, but that also is because they have not only won the last 3 games, but they’ve dominated with a +38 point differential in the wins.
Here we can see the total number of 20,30,40,50 fantasy point games by each team, and for each year.
If we’re looking at upside, we can see that the West has had 7 players who put up 50+ FDPts in the last 3 years while the East has only had 2. The East seems to have more of an even distribution of fantasy scorers which limits the upside of each individual player.
Fortunately for us, we can see how players have done in their previous all star games. We want to play the starters hands down and we have samples from 9/10 of tonight’s starters.
Russell Westbrook has crushing the all star games averaging 58FDppg and 25 FGA. Also, Lebron James is the most expensive player today and has averaged only 32 FDppg. He dropped 48.5 FDpts in 2015 and hasn’t topped 24 since, even though he shot the ball 17 times in 19 minutes last year. This is cause for concern at his price. I’ll most likely be fading him here. Scary I know, especially considering he has the best odds at MVP (which I don’t think he’ll win).
According to the following article, Lebron’s team wants to step it up and play hard so I won’t be fading Lebron just not going very heavy with him.
*UPDATE* Team LeBron wants to change the ASG narrative https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nba/team-lebron-wants-to-change-the-asg-narrative/ar-BBJhZnM
There are 4 people more expensive than Anthony Davis and he has averaged 51 FDpts and 26 FGA in two previous games. It’s a little misleading because he started last year, played 31 minutes and put up 69 FDpts on 39 attempts. He has dominated though, shooting 80% on 52 attempts in both games combined.
*Note: I THINK Andre Drummond will start because he was the only other true Center besides Demarcus Cousins who is hurt, so I think he slides in*
WESTBROOK ANNOUNCED STARTING FOR DEMARCUS
PREVIOUS ALL STAR GAME STATS
TONIGHT’S SALARIES
MVP ODDS
Now we have to look at the positions that have performed best.
First pic is both teams combined.
It’s clear that this is not typically a game for Centers, or even Power Forwards. This is a Guard’s game. Even though there’s differences between the West and the East in terms of which guard spot does the best, the most shots come from PG and SG. The fantasy points are spread out pretty evenly except for PF which doesn’t do well on either team, so I’ll probably just pay down at that spot since I don’t expect too much from it. The West’s PG numbers are weighed heavily by Westbrook’s performances but it just means he will take as many shots a possible every AS game.
With only a few players per position I have to stress that I’ll be trying to get as many starters in my lineups as possible, except Westbrook who will be in my core of players. Though I’m not going to NOT play reserves if I have to in order to fit others in.
Core Plays
It’s going to be obvious but my favorite here is Russell Westbrook because of what he’s done in the past so I’ll have a lot of exposure on both sites, especially the 1.5x on Fanduel.
I’m going to be using both Stephen Curry and Kyrie Irving, both starting PGs who have each put up 50+ FDpt games in all star games, Kyrie (58) last year and Curry (51) the year before. Curry has put up at least 30 FD points in each of the last 3 games, putting up at least 10 3pointers in each game. Considering that, and the fact he plays around 27 mpg while Kyrie plays 20, I’ll set my exposure higher on Curry.
Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 50 FDpts last year on 14/17 shooting with 3 steals and only one 3PA. Games like this are set up for him, lazy passes and lack of effort. He’ll get easy rebounds, easy steals and easy dunks.
Kevin Durant has put up 54 and 45 points in the last 2 all star games and I think he’ll continue to put up good numbers. Lebron obviously wants Durant involved so I assume he’ll get at least 25 minutes tonight. Durant and Westbrook seemed to have made up and KD feels good about it so maybe we’ll see them on the court together throwing lobs to each other.
I initially wasn’t considering Lebron James but his team wants to play hard tonight, including defense so I’m including him in some of my lineups, even though he hasn’t done great in the past.
Of course James Harden is an option because of his upside but he’s put up 9 and 14 shots in the last 2 all star games and out of those 23 shots, 21 were 3 pointers. He played 30 minutes last year and had 28 FDpts including his 10 turnovers. He had 7 rebounds and 12 assists and if he’s not hitting a bunch of 3s it may be hard for him to justify his price. Mike D’Antoni (his coach) will be the coach of the all star game so maybe that gives him a little more run.
Demar Derozan scored 33 FDpts last year without taking a single 3 and while that’s not the archetype of what I’m looking for but he’s a starting guard looking to get around 25 minutes so I’ll have some of him mixed in but not heavy exposure. His coach Dwayne Casey is the coach of his all star team so hopefully he’ll benefit from a little more run.
Joel Embiid is starting and has a reasonable price, moreso on DK. I was worried about him coming into this game after having a sore ankle, playing in the Rising Stars game (only 9 minutes) and the skills challenge (knocked out 2nd round). I’m not sure how long he’ll play but this is definitely the type of atmosphere we know he’ll be looking to shine.
Secondary Plays
I really want Andre Drummond is coming off the bench so he goes from a strong core play to a good secondary play. He played in 2016 and put up 36 FDpts on 8/11 shooting with 16 points and 13 rebounds, if he starts tonight it could be a 20pt/15reb game and DraftKings he’s a free square at $5,400.
In 2015 and 2016 when Kyle Lowry started, he put up 38 and 36 FDpts and last year when he didn’t start he put up 25 FDpts in 17 mins. His coach is also Dwayne Casey so hopefully he’ll benefit from a little more run with Derozan.
Paul George is the only other reserve player in the last 3 years besides Westbrook to put up more than 15 shots in a game.
Considering this is a guard first game and Damian Lillard likes to chuck up 3s, I’ll be using some of him today.
The rest of the guys like Victor Oladipo, Bradley Beal, Klay Thompson may end up in some of my lower $ entries but not in my higher $ entries.