As usual, for DFS NHL content, follow me on Twitter and YouTube for the latest content drops and video uploads. I am a coach and contributor inside DFS Army, where our entire goal is teaching you the fundamentals that will make you a better, more competitive player as quickly as possible. Use code CHOP for a 10% discount, and get busy learning/winning today!! As always, your best compliment is retweeting and/or sharing this information across social media. Thank you!
Last night was hopefully a tremendous learning experience for all our newer VIPs to the game of DFS, in general, and also our NBA degenerates scratching their All Star Break itches with a little NHL action. We spent all day preaching stacking and correlation and how it relates to both cash games and gpps. We corrected fundamentals in lineups for various VIPs that were overweight and underweight in certain areas, and the responses our VIPs gave our coaches was truly why we dedicate our time to helping our members. Thank you, members, for paying it forward and encouraging our coaches to keep teaching. It’s truly a community built on respect, comradery, and love for the hobby.
Today, we dig into a rare weekend slate containing 4 afternoon games and 7 night games. Our VIPs will get the early content, as I will be focused on the night content. Join us through the link above to unlock all the early slate talk!
NHL Advice – Matchups and Focal Points
MTL vs VGK – We start off with a bang tonight and a very popular game. Both teams shoot the lights out and rank in the top 10 across the league in terms of Corsi For (shots metric). The beauty is both teams play some sorry defense, too. While the MTL lines might not be efficient and pumping in the goals, Jeff Petry remains an elite value play at defense for $4500. 3 goals, 1 assist, and 52 shots/blocks in his last 8 games gives you a very solid floor in a high action game. For Vegas, it’s all hands on deck. The MTL scoring lines are all negative in the plus/minus categories and have given multiple goals each over their last 10 games. Vegas skaters are in the best spot on the board tonight. Feel free to stack all sorts of combos in all formats. Marc-Andre Fleury will also be a popular goalie with the moneyline in his favor at -230 tonight. My worry is the over/under was set at 6. It has dropped now to 5.5, but carries the “over” tag at a very strong -130. I’ll be watching this trend throughout the day for our VIPs, and evaluating how safe I feel Fleury is tonight in relation to our other heavy favorite goalies.
NJD vs TBL – Not really a lot to love here honestly. Neither team is hitting the radar as having huge weaknesses or strengths. Now, I realize what I just said. Vasilevskiy is a -220 out of Vegas and is coming off a great game. Yes, he’s playable tonight. The Tampa Bay Lightning are the league’s most dangerous offense, but they really kind of aren’t. KuchieStank is like Van Halen in that they were awesome, broke up, reunited and just not as good this time around yet despite all our hopes and dreams of them returning to glory. And, we do have value plays in Yanni Gourde and Alex Killorn but they appear to have been demoted again to 2nd and 3rd lines, respectively. All this shuffling makes me scratch my head, and facing the Devils isn’t exactly a spot I’m wanting to attack given we have 6 other games to look at. Taylor Hall is great, Nico Hischier is showing a little heater, and Palmieri has pumped in 6 goals of his own over the last 9 outings. No one is bad, but no one is in such a soft spot we need to drop everything and load them up. It’s a solid spot for any format, just not like the day that pretty girl finally kissed you back.
See NHL Advice – Ladder Up – How to Properly Allocate Resources
What Our VIPs Are Saying About Learning DFS NHL
Christy showed me a lineup yesterday and was asking about playing cash games. She had quite a few skaters from the same team, and I immediately recommended she swap a couple of them out for skaters on another team for safety. That originally overweight game fell flat, and her swap was the right call. As a result, she more than tripled up on the night and went to sleep a very happy camper. That’s what our coaching does for players……helps teach them where they might be taking too much risk for their contests. Christy is now on her way to becoming a shark after YOUR money!!
Toronto comes to Pittsburgh where the money line is growing in PIT’s favor and the game total is hitting it’s own over pretty strongly with a 6o-25. (If you don’t know how to read that, watch this video – Reading Vegas). The top Toronto lines have been most impressive over their last 10 games. TOR1 has scored a league-leading 13 goals, and TOR2 comes in 2nd with 10 biscuits of their own. However, with all that scoring ain’t nobody got time for defense. TOR1 has allowed 6 goals against and TOR2 has allowed 4 against in those same 10 games. That brings in the Penguins offense loaded with Sidney Crosby (2 goals, 9 assists, on 40 shots), and his two value plays Zach Aston-Reese and Conor Sheary, in with that top line. The Pens’ second line of Evgeni Malkin (9 goals, 5 assists, on 36 shots) and his value buddies of Bryan Rust and Carl Hagelin have actually done the most damage in scoring 6 goals in their last 10 games together putting them in one of the best matchups of the night. The entire game hits my radar as the 3rd best for DFS.
DET vs NSH – I’m very sorry to report that other than Pekke Rinne and some Nashville value plays, this game is just a DFS dumpster. Don’t spend a lot of time on it. Rinne might be in the safest spot tonight drawing DET. His skaters in front of him play tight defense and don’t allow a lot of quality chances. Add in DET just doesn’t put a lot of volume on net, and the -220 out of Vegas seems appropriate. Pretty solid cash game spot for Rinne. I will be looking for value again with Fiala and Smith on the NSH2, but I don’t think I’ll be stacking much together from this one. Other one-offs to consider are Josi, Ellis, and Subban as a defender for your lineup. But, they don’t come too terribly cheap. Like Gump Forrest Gump, that’s all I have to say about tha’at.
WAS vs CHI – Another doozy of a game for you. The top lines are your focus (insert sarcastic eye roll). And, if you like to gamble in GPPs, the sneaky play is the CHI1, which has scored 6 goals in it’s last 10 games and no one has noticed….not even Chicago fans. They likely face the Washington top line who has given up 4 goals in 1o games and never ranks as some defensive stalwart of a line. Chicago leads the league in Corsi For, meaning they pump shots on goal from anywhere. Given their ineptitude lately, this puts Braden Holtby in a world class spot, too. He will see shot volume from a team that has trouble scoring. Vegas has this game as a pickem, though, so it’s a risk. WAS1 is always a target with Ovechkin capable of completely breaking a slate for us. And, John Carlson is another high-floor defender if you have the money to pay up. Other than that, I’m out.
NHL DFS Winning Tips – Dealing with Variance Once and For All
We have a new coach in the Army! Anthony has hit the ground running and has grabbed a lot of newer players and taken them under his wing. The results have been quick and strong with the players he has helped. I’m not so arrogant to think I can’t learn from anyone and will admit to the world that I have added wrinkles to my own game based on our conversations. Add Anthony to myself, Flynn, Jim, and Shady and our regular VIPs have outstanding dedication at their disposal.
BOS vs VAN – I’m not a fan of attacking Canucks in Vancouver, but it’s hard to go wrong with Boston. That 2nd line keeps rolling and draws the best matchup in the game tonight. Patrice Bergeron is about as cash-safe as they come (but might be a tad overpriced tonight) and pairing him with Ryan Spooner (2 goals, 4 assists, on 24 shots for $4300) gives you multi-line access to goals with some overlap on the top power play should you double tip the power play bonus with the assist on a goal. It’s great access to a nightly performer. Tukka Rask won’t see a lot of shots tonight, making me think he’s a bit overpriced in spite of the monster year he’s having. VAN doesn’t do a ton of shooting and ranks 29th in the league. Add that to BOS’s elite shot suppression (ranking #1 in Corsi Allowed) and any goals against will really hurt Rask tonight. He simply won’t see enough other shots to make up for the huge loss of points a goal against takes from him. I won’t be touching any Canucks tonight.
FLA vs CGY – Late night hammer time…..and it might go a little under the radar. So, let’s break this one down. FLA1 and FLA2 are scoring goals currently with both tallying 6 goals in their last 10 games. CGY1 and CGY2 tend to give goals liberally, 4 and 6 respectively over their last 10. Flip-side, CGY1 has scored 8 goals (ranking 3rd highest in the NHL over this 10 game span) and CGY2 has 5 of its own. FLA1 has given 6 goals up displaying they aren’t defensively elite by any means. Add all this up and you have the makings of a shootout. CGY is also the #2 team in Corsi For, ranking just behind Chicago. We have a close moneyline at -125 and a high total of 6 goals projected by Vegas. With people focusing on big brand names like Crosby, Malkin, Kucherov, Marchand, and Ovechkin, I think you will find some sneaky success if giving this game a lot of your exposure tonight. We will break down more specifics of players like Vince Trocheck (damn….let one slip) in our VIP lounge. Feel free to join us!
NHL Strategy – Overtime
Remember to use that code CHOP for your 10% discount on becoming a VIP. We run through much more detail inside our Slack Channels with our members. We also bring the other DFS sports to the table, tools, optimizers (NHL in long range plans), and coaching access across all those sports.
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