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Forslund’s Full Mount – UFC Fight Night 126 – DFS MMA Breakdown

Welcome to another weekend of fights, this time it’s on a Sunday night.  This week we have a solid 12 fight card.  If you are already missing NBA why not give MMA a shot.  We have a great tool in the DFS Army MMA Research Station available to DFS Army VIP Members.  Also, Geek and I normally do a VIP Only podcast as well breaking down the slate.  Who knows, you might just end up realizing how much fun DFS MMA can be.  Before we dive into the breakdown I wanted to congratulate the four DFS Army VIP members who each won $12,277.78 in NBA this past Sunday on FanDuel! Congrats to jhawkfan25, teammoney22, sempernaut, and raw30281. The DFS Army Domination Station NBA Optimizer has been on fire this season! Check it out

 Ok, enough of that let’s get down to the real reason you all are here and get into these breakdowns.

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Piechota (-300) 9.1k vs Williams (+250) 7.1k

  Piechota has still yet to lose in the UFC.  He is a solid striker with decent takedown (TD) defense.  He is also a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (BJJ) black belt.  Which means he is solid on the ground as well.  Williams is making his UFC debut.  He is a decent grappler and wrestler.  He is decent in the clinch as well.  The is a fight I don’t love from a DK side of things.  I do see Piechota winning the fight it’s just a good chance this fight goes to a decision.  If that’s the case I don’t see Piechota reaching value.  Williams is worth taking in 1-2 lineups if you are making more than 10-12 lineups.  More than likely this is not a fight I won’t have heavy exposure to in general.

Morono (-290) 8.8k vs Burkman (+245) 7.4k

  Morono is an aggressive fighter with good power.  He is a good striker that lands at a decent rate (4 Significant Strikes per minute (SS).  He also has solid cardio.  Burkman is coming into this fight having lost his last four (last UFC win was in 2016).  He is a decent wrestler and is a veteran of the sport.  He also has shown to have suspect cardio in the past.  I really like the spot Morono is in here and he is playable in all formats.  Burkman, I might make one lineup of in contests I am max entering.  Overall Burkman is in a good spot to fade completely if you are trying to lower your fighter pool.  In short, Morono is playable everywhere.

Pudilova (-170) 8.5k vs Moras (+150) 7.7k

   Pudilova is a good striker who has very good output (5 SS’s).  Moras isn’t very good when it comes to stand up at all.  She has good BJJ and a good armbar.  I think both fighters are playable in GPP’s.  My preferred play is Pudilova.  As long as she is able to keep fight standing she is at a definite advantage.  Moras’s only real chance at winning is getting the fight to the ground and getting the submission.  Overall Moras is a fighter I will have very little if any exposure to.  Pudilova is surrounded by fighters in good spots. So I know I will be using her just not sure how heavily.  

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Sanchez (-135) 8.2k vs R. Sanchez (+115) 8k

  Joby is a decent striker who trains at Jackson-Wink.  Roberto has decent TD’s and likes to be in top position if it gets to the ground.  Even though these fighters are priced close to even I, don’t know if this is a fight I will have much exposure to.  Joby is my preferred play. Merely based on the fact he does train at a solid gym.  If my thoughts change closer to the fight I will discuss them in Slack.

Neal (-210) 8.9k vs Camozzi (+175) 7.3k

  Neal is a good striker with good power.  Camozzi is coming into this fight on a 2 fight losing streak (both losses via KO).  He is a decent striker and has good knees.  He is solid in the clinch and a wrestler.  I like Neal in all formats.  Camozzi is playable in GPP’s as a punt.  More than likely I will have more exposure to Neal and very limited exposure to Camozzi.

Gordon (-260) 9.3k vs Ferreira (+220) 6.9k

  Gordon is a solid striker with good TD’s.  Ferreira is aggressive with good BJJ.  He is also a decent striker.  Gordon is the most expensive fighter on the entire crowd.  He has scored over 100 Draftkings points in his two UFC fights.  The problem here is he is definitely moving up in competition here.  Ferreira has gone against better opponents and held his own.  Gordon is playable in GPP’s if you have the salary to get up there but, I am not forcing him into my lineups.  Ferreira is playable in all formats.  I really like him in cash because he opens up so much value.  GPP’s not as much just because I am trying to get six wins. Overall target both ends in GPP and Ferreira in cash for value.

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Northcutt (-280) 9.2k vs Gouti (+240) 7k

   Northcutt is a solid striker and a decent counter-striker.  He has good TD’s and trains with Team Alpha Male.  Gouti is a decent striker with decent TD’s.  I like Northcutt in all formats.  He looked really good in his last fight in his 1st fight after starting to train at Alpha Male.  I think Gouti is overmatched here and I will be fading him completely.   Pretty simple overall here I love Northcutt and hate Gouti here.

Davis (-200) 8.7k vs Peterson (+170) 7.5k

  Davis is Muay Thai fighter and a decent striker.  Interesting note he had a fight three weeks ago and had a hip injury going the into fight.  Peterson is an aggressive fighter.  He has decent TD’s and is good in the clinch.  He also has good cardio.  Overall this is a fight I will be targeting in GPP’s.  My preferred play is Peterson as this fight is winnable and he is cheaper.  I will be targeting both sides in general.

Alves (-165) 8.6k vs Millender (+145) 7.6k

 Alves is a decent striker with decent TD’s.  He also has a decent TD defense.  Millender is an ok striker with very good leg kicks.  He will also have a reach advantage here.  Another fight I prefer for GPP’s.  I will have limited exposure to Alves even in a win he most likely won’t score that high.  Millender is one of my favorite dogs on the card.  He has big upside.  Just be aware it is more likely he losses.  As an edge play I would rather take the risk with Millender.  In short target both ends.

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Vick (-230) 9k vs Trinaldo (+190) 7.2

 This is a gpp fight only for me.  Vick is a solid striker and has good power.  He has a good jab and decent submissions.  He also has good cardio.  Trinaldo is a solid striker with good power.  He has decent kicks and decent TD’s.  Not sure how I am going to attack this fight.  I just know I will have exposure to both.  Be sure to listen to our pod and check out Slack for my thoughts after weigh-ins.

Tybura (-140) 8.3k vs Lewis (+120) 7.9k

  Tybura is a decent striker with good kicks.  He also lands at a good rate (3.9 SS’s) for a HW.  Lewis is a good striker with big power.  Problem with Lewis is he has crap cardio.  This is a HW fight so I prefer to target it in GPP’s.  My preferred play is Tybura and I will have a good amount of exposure to him at his price.  Lewis is worth a few lineups if he wins it will be via KO.

Cerrone (-145) 8.4k vs Medeiros (+125) 7.8k

 Ok in cash stack this fight and move on.  Its that simple!  Cerrone is a good striker with good TD’s. He has good submissions and is a veteran.  Medeiros is a tough fighter and a solid striker.  I will use both in GPP’s.  Come join us in slack to see how I am going to attack this fight in GPP’s.

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Again be sure you take advantage of MMA Research Station and listen to pod. Good Luck Army!

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