NHL DFS Advice for 2/13/2018
NHL Hockey is a volatile game in real life and fantasy. I’ve found that DFS hockey is the most like baseball. You need correlation in both cash and GPP, pay up for the most reliable production (Goalie, Pitcher) when you can, and everyone’s floor is zero. Sidney Crosby can get you a goose egg, and Mike Trout can go 0-4 with three strike outs and kill your roster. It can happen, and it will happen. Just ride it out with me and you’ll have success. For more nuggets follow me on Twitter @rflynndfs and follow along in Slack. The goal of this article is to highlight a few stacks, defensemen and goalies for you and add a few honorable mentions. My picks are almost exclusively taken from this player pool, unless I find some value as the day goes on. Those notes are for VIP’s only though. I am very active in Slack and I will answer anyone’s questions or help you finalize your lineup.
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I play more classic on FanDuel, and still play some Pick ‘Em on DK, so when I talk stacks I will focus more on FD. The scoring is similar as far as points being weighted. DK favors activity (ie shots and blocks more so than FD), while on FanDuel goals and assists are king. For cash, you can mix and match pieces from my stacks to create your lineup. For cash I generally only do two forwards and maybe a defenseman for a 3-man stack, but that’s it. In cash, you want pieces of a lot of good scoring options; in GPP, you live and die by your line stacks.
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You hear a lot of people say “don’t play that guy, he’ll be too high owned.” Forget that nonsense, it is very overrated. Yes, you need some lower owned guy to go off. But if you build a solid team, you’ll have success. It’s highly unlikely that someone will have the exact same team as you. That’s true in all sports!
Without any further ado. Let’s break down tonight’s 8-game slate.
Forwards
For forwards, I focus on higher projected games, generally the top-2 lines on those teams – there will be times when line 3 will be in play it’s rare. Then I look at Corsi numbers, both for and against for that line and the line they will be matched up with for most of the game.
PIT 1: Crosby, Rust, Simon – OTT’s top line has given up three goals in the last three games and they are the worst CA/60 team over the last three weeks. This is the perfect spot to run Crosby and Company out there – for cash, I love the Crosby/Malkin combo if you can afford it.
PHI 1: Giroux, Konecny, Couturier – This line is the hottest in the league right now with seven goals in their last 10 games and five of them coming in the last three. NJ is a solid defensive team. Their biggest weakness is the third line, that PHI might be able to exploit by using the last change. These guys also skate on the PP, which is the best area to attack NJ.
WPG 2: Little, Ehlers, Laine – this line is shooting a ton lately and don’t have much to show for it. However, the Caps are very weak defensively, especially against wingers. The Capitals are also one of the worst road defensive teams. I’m not going to lie, this team is struggling so I’m not completely comfortable with this pick. The spot they are in is too good to avoid talking about.
Honorable Mentions: VGK 1-2, BOS 1-2 (CGY defense is awful), SJ 1, ANA 1, MIN 1, CBJ 1, NYI 1-2, NSH 1-2
More big wins ho hum
Defense
For defense, I look for floor. The main scoring is going to come from the forwards. By floor, I mean: shots on goal, blocks, points (those are harder to predict) and I want a defense man that gets a lot of ice time on the PP too. Just like in any other sport, you can’t score points if you’re on the bench.
Doughty: He has seven points over the last eight games. He is running point on the power play and has a solid floor with his shots and blocks. I think he is more of a cash play than GPP but he is solid. Carolina is a good defensive team but they struggle against defensemen.
Burns: Same deal as always If you can afford him, play him. His floor and ceiling are the best on the slate.
Green: Certainly not the player he used to be, but he still runs the point on the PP and has a very safe floor in this matchup.
Honorable Mentions: Muzzin, Vlasic, Provorov, Gostisbehere, Engelland
Goalies
Goalies are not the easiest to predict. Just like a pitcher in baseball, they can come out flat and once they get off to a rough start some don’t recover. I lean heavily on Vegas when choosing a goalie. Look at the money line and implied team total (ITT). Generally, it is a pay up spot. (This article is coming out before all goalies are confirmed. ALWAYS confirm starters before locking one in)
“Variance is a fickle bitch”
Murray: He comes in has the biggest favorite tonight at -255 against a struggling Senators team. He also has solid numbers lately: 4-0-1 with a 2.76 GAA and 0.918 save %. With OTT’s struggles and PIT scoring at will against everyone, this win is all but locked up.
Rinne: He has the lowest money line of the goalies I trust tonight at -147 but his numbers are incredible lately: 5-0-1, two shutouts, 1.61 GAA and a 0.944 save %.
Dubnyk: He is a -191 favorite at home where the Wild play much better. The Rangers are struggling mightily lately but have shown some heart in the last couple of games. that mini swing in the right direction isn’t enough to take me off Dubs tonight. You should feel comfortable with his 4-1-1 record, one shutout, 2.67 GAA and 0.922 save %.
Honorable Mentions: Fluery, Rask, Ward, Jones
Slack is where the magic happens.
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