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Chelsea v Leicester
Let’s kick this thing off with the game everyone will be on. There are a lot of low totals this week and the biggest total is the late game. Each week I see people fade the late game, which I say is a mistake, but that strategy will force higher than normal ownership to Chelsea. The first beneficiary of said ownership bump will go to Alvaro Morata. I like his spot this week and will use him in GPP. I am not worried about his recent finishing woes. It makes me wish that there was another big team starting at 10 am EST to suppress his ownership. While Leicester has given up the 12th most shots to home forwards, they have given up the 5th most goals to home forwards.
If you want a cash play from this one, look to Willian. He figures to start without Fabregas and, if so, will see the indirect set pieces and the corners. He is a little expensive on DK but if there is no Fabregas then just do it. Leicester sucks at defending set pieces on the road. You can pair him with a set piece target in GPP.
Tottenham v Everton
The late game usually sees suppressed ownership because people don’t really want to bother with the chance their hard work could go up in smoke because their guy gets sat and they don’t have the cash to pivot. Don’t let this be you! Attack the late game. The best thing you can do is research the injury report. Research the schedule. See what these teams are playing for and what you think their goals are. This one doesn’t seem to pose any big threats so I expect something rather straightforward.
My go-to for this game is Son Heung-Min. Midfielders have burned a traveling Everton this season and he has been their most dynamic player not named Harry Kane. Everton has given up the 2nd most goals to midfielders (for road squads) and they are vulnerable to attack on their right defensive side. He fits more lineup constructions than Kane, too.
Those 2 matches are the clear-cut ones for this slate.
Best of the Rest
This is the part of the show where we highlight some cash plays.
- Ashley Barnes, BUR – Burnley’s attack generally gets funneled towards the forwards. Crystal Palace has given up the 5th most shots to forwards at home and the most goals. This slate doesn’t have the best cash forwards.
- Matt Ritchie, NEW – I like set-piece takers who also have open play ability against a visiting Swansea. They cede so much possession that they allow all of the crosses.
- Tommy Smith, HUD – Gets involved in peripherals and won’t break the bank on either site. He is more called upon to service rather than shoot, but his recent numbers look solid for his price.
Between the Sticks
Here are my choices for GPP Goalkeeper. If you are a regular reader of mine, then you know I like going for the saves.
- Lukasz Fabianski, SWA – Newcastle should see an uptick in shots and they have been more accurate (31% SOG) than other teams in the same boat. I don’t think a win is in order but he could have one of the highest save upsides on the slate.
- Nick Pope, BUR – Burnley allows a fair share of shots and they have a solid defense. Palace tends to shoot a lot at home so he could have a nice day.
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- Adrian, WHU – I see a lot of shots coming his way, but Huddersfield has only scored at a 5.4% clip over their last 4 matches.
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