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POINT GUARDS:
Patty Mills / Dejounte Murray (SA @ PHX)
The Spurs are using this matchup vs PHX as a spa day for some of their older players, so look for M-squared to be great sources of value… and unfortunately, incredibly popular. At first glance, it seems as if Mills is the go-to guy here, playing around 25-27 minutes with regularity while Murray has seen a total of nine minutes over the last three games. However, in the last game that Tony Parker was out, Murray posted a monster night vs OKC… In addition, some of Murray’s best work this season has come with Parker in street clothes. All in all, Mills is the safer play while Murray is better suited for GPPs.
In any event, PHX is the 5th-best aDvP matchup (3rd on tonight’s slate) for point guards this season – Suns PG Tyler Ulis is the 8th-worst defender in all the NBA, according to DRPM.
Elfrid Payton (ORL @ ATL)
Dennis Schroder (ATL vs ORL)
ATL and ORL are the two best matchups for point guards this season, and we actually saw these two teams play earlier in the week. Schroder won that individual battle, but this is an interesting bounce-back spot for Elf given all the injuries piling up on the Magic roster. The Magic are amid a brutal stretch of schedule, but Elf could be forced to play even more minutes if DJ Augustin doesn’t suit up tonight.
Lonzo Ball (LAL @ CHA)
I’m not point-chasing… I’m picking on a fatigued CHA team that is actually the 6th-best aDvP matchup (3rd on this slate) for point guards this season.
** CONDITIONAL ON INJURY NEWS:
Malcolm Brogdon (MIL vs UTA)
I really don’t love this matchup for Brogdon and the fact that MIL is on the back-end of a B2B, but if Matthew Dellavedova doesn’t suit up that’ll mean another 40 minutes are possible… at $4400 on FanDuel.
SHOOTING GUARDS:
James Harden (HOU @ POR)
I’m just gonna leave Harden’s last 11 games vs POR here for you to look at. I don’t know if I’ll be able to fit him in, but I do think a lot of this Rockets offense will funnel to their backcourt with pretty brutal matchups down low. Also, the Rockets are massive favorites on the road in this game… smells like a big night to me.
Kent Bazemore (ATL vs ORL)
ATL takes on a very tired ORL team, which could even lead to a bunch of steals and blocks for Bazemore.
JJ Redick (PHI @ CLE)
Redick sees a 5.5% spike in usage rate with all of PHI’s inactives off the court and spot-up shooters have destroyed CLE all season.
** MATCHUP-BASED:
JR Smith (CLE vs PHI)
PHI is the 4th-best aDvP matchup (3rd best on this slate) for shooting guards this season. Risky to have JR, yes it is, although, he usually plays around 30-35 minutes each game.
Justin Holiday (CHI vs NYK)
This is more for the narrative section, but Holiday spent some time as a member of the Knicks. Even though he was a solid contributor, the Knicks didn’t even offer to re-sign him this offseason. I’m sure Holiday had this date circled on his calendar.
** CONDITIONAL ON INJURY NEWS:
Bryn Forbes (SA @ PHX)
I know what Mitch had about Forbes in his article earlier today, and I agree with him. However, if we get news that Aldridge, Gay and Green are ALL added to the list of inactives, I have no issue with Forbes. This matchup against the Suns is one of the best on the board so I wouldn’t be opposed to playing a guy who will see big minutes against them… that is if the situation dictates it.
SMALL FORWARDS:
LeBron James (CLE vs PHI)
LBJ has done well consistently, but the back-end of B2Bs have been a different story so far this season…. however, not all of this is his fault. In both clunkers you see below the Cavs had unforeseen blowout losses; I don’t see that happening tonight against a short-handed Sixers team.
TJ Warren (PHX vs SA)
I think people may overlook Warren since he’s going against the Spurs, but it’s worth noting that small forwards are a neutral aDvP matchup for them… probably a lot better than what most would expect. Don’t forget, the Spurs are in a bad position tonight (playing on the back-end of a B2B, 3rd game in 4 days, 4th game in 6 days, 5th game in 7 days) and probably won’t bring their A-game on defense. Warren can play nearly 40 minutes if this game stays close and we’ve seen him post about 40 fantasy points a handful of times recently.
Robert Covington (PHI @ CLE)
Much like Redick, this is a fantastic matchup, but with all of tonight’s PHI inactives off the court Covington’s usage rate bumps up much higher to 30.2%, a boost of more than 11%.
Taurean Prince (ATL vs ORL)
ORL is the best aDvP matchup this season for small forwards. Jonathan Simmons, who will be matched up with Prince, is the worst defender in the NBA according to DRPM.
** ON THE FENCE:
Jonathan Simmons / Wes Iwundu (ORL @ ATL)
The Magic have been decimated with injuries so expect Simmons to get all the run he can handle. Now, “all the run he can handle” might be shorter than usual since ORL is on the back-end of a B2B and a stretch that runs all the way back to this as their fifth game in seven days.
* Iwundu keeps popping up on the Domination Station and it’s possible for him to get some nice garbage time run at min-price. I watched some of his Summer League highlights (because I’ve never heard of the guy) and Iwundu is a lengthy guy that could find himself on the stat sheet in a number of different ways. I don’t think I have the balls to throw him out there blindly in my one lineup, but considering the dire need ORL has for bodies tonight, he’s worth a couple spots in MME.
POWER FORWARDS:
Marvin Williams (CHA vs LAL)
I hate that the Hornets are on the back-end of a B2B, but all of these Hornets injuries will force Marv to have another big workload…. at a great price, of course.
LaMarcus Aldridge (SA @ PHX)
PHX is the best aDvP matchup for power forwards this season… However, all of this is contingent on whether LMA plays or not.
Ben Simmons / Amir Johnson / Trevor Booker (PHI @ CLE)
The Sixers list of injuries is piling up, so Simmons and Johnson will both be forced into a ton of minutes. Simmons appears to be over his short-term funk as he has exceeded 5x value and finished just below it in each of the last two meetings, both against terrible defenses (LAL and PHX.) – It is worth noting that Simmons usage rate goes down 1% with all of PHI’s inactives off the court.
Johnson has played 21 minutes in each of the last two games that Embiid has missed, and he should get that amount of run with Saric out as well. Booker will likely get a chance to show what he can do right off the bat. The one thing I’ll say about Booker is that the guy always gives it 100% out there and I know for a fact that he wants to make an immediate impact with his new teammates.
Ed Davis / Noah Vonleh (POR vs HOU)
With Jusuf Nurkic out of the lineup, Davis and Vonleh should see extended run tonight. We haven’t seen Nurkic miss any games yet this season, but this is the likely course of action.
** PAY UP TO BE CONTRARIAN:
Kristaps Porzingis (NYK @ CHI)
KP takes on a CHI team that is the 4th-best aDvP (2nd on this slate) matchup for power forwards this season, and they’re also on the back-end of a B2B after playing an overtime game in Charlotte last night. If all that wasn’t enough, Tim Hardaway Jr is still out for the Knicks and that keeps KP’s usage rate at a robust 35.6% in that scenario.
CENTERS:
Dwight Howard (CHA vs LAL)
Howard’s birthday bonanza certainly raised some eyebrows yesterday, but he did play a whopping 43 minutes in that game. The Hornets are missing a good portion of their team today, especially in the frontcourt, so Howard will be forced into another heavy workload.
Kevin Love (CLE vs PHI)
PHI hasn’t been that great defending centers this season as it is… now they don’t have their best big man.
** ON THE FENCE:
Nikola Vucevic (ORL @ ATL)
ATL has been a great matchup for centers this season, but the Magic are on the back-end of a B2B and a brutal stretch that goes all the way back to five games in seven days.
** CAUTION:
Clint Capela (HOU @ POR)
POR has been one of the best defensive teams this season, but even without Nurkic in the lineup they have very capable defenders in Aminu and Davis (12th and 16th in DRPM for power forwards) who will likely be matched up against Capela.
Greg Monroe / Tyson Chandler / Alex Len (PHX vs SA)
All three will be active tonight and there’s no telling what the minutes will look like in this scenario. Best idea is to just avoid it altogether.