Before we get started we need to give huge congratulations to DFS Army Member “kanger”, for taking fourth in the DraftKings Milly Maker. This is our fourth member in the last 40-days to win over $50,000! We have had a $53,000 winner in NBA, a $150,000 winner in NFL, a $100,000 win in NBA, and this $50,000 win in Week 12 of the NFL season. The DFS Army helmets are up and down the standings across all DFS platforms and our membership is closing in on 2,000 because of it. We have enormous momentum, no doubt about it.
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NBA DFS is a different kind of beast. Studs can outright win you a GPP with a massive performance and value plays can be brought to light just minutes before contest lock time due to late scratches or breaking news. It isn’t for the faint of heart and the most dedicated researchers and news followers will have a significant edge over the field. This column will be loaded with valuable research, metrics, and analysis on how to use this information in your contests.
Before we get started I just wanted to post this here just in case any of OUR members missed it on our VIP Slack this morning. We’ve had four qualifier seats won on DK, four wins between $50,000 and $150,o00 and dozens of 5-digit winning lineups by members over the past 45-days. I sent this little message out in Slack this morning because recently, our members keep praising the staff in Slack for all our extra one-on-one work and discussions. This goes out to all of you, the best members in the universe:
Guards
Chris Paul has played 29-minutes or more in six straight games and has scored 58.30 and 43.10 FanDuel points in the last two. The Pelicans can’t stop anybody on the perimeter and the Rockets shoot more three’s than anybody in NBA history. I am very bullish on the Rockets today.
Paul has taken 16-threes over the past three games and is a fantastic GPP and cash game option for this Monday slate. Because of Russell Westbrook and Damian Lillard, Paul’s ownership likely will be the third highest at the position which keeps him in play for large field contests as well.
Kyle Lowry has been underpriced for the better part of three weeks. He has had a usage rating over 24% in four of the last six games and has churned out five games over 38 fantasy points in that game span.
The Clippers are hemorrhaging points to guards and Lowry should feast on Austin Rivers “defense”.
Rajon Rondo has a price drop on both sites even though he exploded for nearly 60 fantasy points on Sunday. The Pelicans are 12.0 point underdogs and are the second leg of a back to back. However, in the DFSA, we try not to predict blowouts. The Pelicans are good enough to keep this game within reach and could easily cover the spread. A game stack of this game could be the winning recipe for large field GPPs.
Kyrie Irving is yet another point guard in a beautiful matchup. The Bulls can’t defend opposing point guards and Irving has a 29.3% usage rate. He also is playing 31.7 Min/Game and scoring 37.8 FP/Game. In a competitive game and playing heavy minutes, Irving is a fantastic cash game option who doesn’t have the same ceiling as Paul or Lowry but has the same type of high floor.
Kris Dunn continues to crush value and play heavy minutes. His usage rate has steadily increased over the past two weeks since being inserted into the starting lineup. He has scored 36.20, 53.20, and 44.90 FanDuel points in the last three games and should continue to carry the offensive load for the Bulls as he has the single best matchup against the Celtics out of all the Bulls offensive “weapons”.
His usage has been above 25.29% in four straight games and I absolutely love Dunn as a small field GPP option who could produce another 45-50 fantasy point outing.
Damian Lillard is my favorite player on the entire slate. He’s playing insanely heavy minutes and is taking 20-plus shots in seemingly every game. He has also taken 36-threes over the last three games and scored 40-plus fantasy points in seven of his last eight games.
When there are eight or nine point guards worth using on a small six-game slate we are going to have to plant our flag somewhere. I’ll have more exposure to Dame than anybody else on the slate.
James Harden is in a tremendous spot on Monday. The Pelicans are giving up 31.9 actual PPG to opposing shooting guards in the last five games. Harden has been playing out of his mind since the return of Chris Paul and the two are playing well together. Harden has scored 55-plus fantasy points in five of the last six games and likely finishes with the highest raw total on the entire slate.
He hasn’t had a usage rating under 31.88% since October 18th against the Kings. He’s a cash game lock and the Rockets have the highest total on the board at 119.0 points. Yes, please!
Klay Thompson is in an interesting spot. His price has risen to a point where he is basically at value. He hasn’t shown the same 50-point ceiling this season as he had multiple times last year. However, his matchup with the Trail Blazers excites me.
Over the last five games, The Blazers have allowed opposing shooting guards to score 59.7 fantasy PPG. Opposing guards are shooting 48% from the field and scoring 29.4 actual PPG. Thompson is a great ladder system guard for the DFSA.
The Ladder System is a strategy we teach our members to use to maximize their ROI based on a strict bankroll investment strategy and specific contest selection. There is nothing like it anywhere in the industry and is a huge reason why we have such an enormous member retention rate. We have 45,000 weekly messages in Slack between our 19-staff and members, largely about each slate and the Ladder System specifically.
If playing anybody above 8k not named James Harden, then Lou Williams is the play. He’s averaging nearly 36.0 minutes per game over the last 10-games and has had a usage rate over 26% in seven of them.
He has scored 40-plus fantasy points in three straight games and has shown a 50-point ceiling as well. He’s another fantastic ladder system guard as he has a tremendous floor/ceiling combination. I am going to break down what to do with Austin Rivers in Slack – top secret!
Jrue Holiday is underpriced on FanDuel and DraftKings and is a fantastic GPP option on Monday. I love the idea of stacking a few Rockets players with Holiday and Rondo and hope for a fast-paced shootout. Holiday has scored 47-plus fantasy points in two of the last four games and is still sub-7k.
Even with a fully healthy roster last game, Holiday had a 31.39% usage rate and scored 34 actual points. He’s really hitting his stride and finding his rhythm playing off the ball when Rondo is on the court.
We recently had a $53,333 NBA win by a DFS Member on FanDuel for NBA. If you’d like to read about this AMAZING win and a few other five and six-figure wins, go ahead and click this link and enjoy!
Forwards
I believe there are only 5/6 options at both SF/PF combined and will be discussing these positions with members only in Slack. I have a nice GPP strategy I am going to lay out today during my afternoon “notes update” in Slack, it will discuss primarily what to do with the forward and center spot and how to use the plethora of usable guards to maximize my scoring ceiling. Game theory is going to be key.
We broke down the $150,000 NFL win earlier this season. You can read about that gem in this link!
Centers
I am going to break down the centers for our members only in some “pre-game” notes, similar to what the other main coaches do in Slack for our members. I also will differentiate who I think are my top cash game and GPP options between the above players and update my thoughts and opinions – just like our other four NBA coaches and writers do in our pre-game “Slack Notes”. The daily podcast should drop soon and we have a few more articles for tonight’s slate coming out. No rest for the weary, let’s grab our fifth $50,000 + winning night and continue to turn the industry upside down on its head!
I have already said too much and that type of analysis and strategy will be kept to our Slack channel (45,000 WEEKLY messages between the 1,500 members and 19 staff that we have logged into Slack).
I am so excited to be providing content for the NBA season and I will see you all in Slack chat #dailydonuts #nfl-talk and #nba-talk. You can find me on Twitter @DFSnDONUTS where I post my daily articles and love to interact with my followers.
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