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I’ve found that DFS hockey is the most similar to baseball. You need correlation in both cash and GPP, pay up for the most reliable production (Goalie, Pitcher) when you can, and everyone’s floor is zero. Sidney Crosby can get you a goose egg, and Mike Trout can go 0-4 with three strike outs and kill your roster. It can happen, and it will happen. Just ride it out with me and you’ll have success.
I play more classic on FanDuel, and still play Pick ‘Em on DK, so when I talk stacks I will focus more on FD. The scoring is similar as far as points being weighted. For cash, you can mix and match pieces from my stacks to create your lineup. For cash I generally only do two forwards and maybe a defenseman for a 3-man stack, but that’s it. In cash, you want pieces of a lot of good scoring options. In GPP you live or die by your line stacks.
You hear a lot of people say “don’t play that guy, he’ll be too high owned.” Forget that nonsense, it is very overrated. Yes, you need some lower owned guy to go off. But if you build a solid team, you’ll have success. It’s highly unlikely that someone will have the exact same team as you. That’s true in all sports!
Without any further ado. Let’s break down tonight’s 9-game slate.
Forwards
For forwards, I focus on higher projected games, generally the top-2 lines on those teams – there will be times when line 3 will be in play it’s rare. Then I look at Corsi numbers, both for and against for that line and the line they will be matched up with for most of the game.
WSH 1: Wilson, Ovechkin, Backstrom They are my favorite line to stack tonight. Even though WSH has a massive money line in this game, I think this game has shoot out potential. COL1 is weak defensively and Ovi is unstoppable on home ice.
PHI 1: Giroux, Simmonds, Couturier. Toronto is a defensive liability and this line has 2/3 of the top scoring line in the league. Vorachek now plays on the second line. This is another game that I believe will be high scoring.
VGK 2: Perron, Haula, Neal: Over the last month the Knights are the #7 team in Corsi For/60. Carolina is a top-10 defensive team. However, all three play together on the top PP unit and Carolina is the #29 team on the penalty kill.
Honorable Mentions: CHI 2, Col 1, WSH 2, VGK 1, CHI 1, MIN 2
More big wins ho hum
Defense
For defense, I look for floor. The main scoring is going to come from the forwards. By floor, I mean: shots on goal, blocks, points (those are harder to predict) and I want a defense man that gets a lot of ice time on the PP too. Just like in any other sport, you can’t score points if you’re on the bench.
This is where we need to take our chances tonight. I think ownership will be pretty tight everywhere, so one or two plays will make or break the night for you. It’s definitely a GPP only night.
Shayne Gostisbehere: He is one of the best offensive defensemen in the league and D-men kill the Leafs. His price is not going to make it easy to fit him in, but it’s not impossible.
Gustav Forsling: He’s cheap and still producing at a high rate.
Shea Theodore: Min price on FD and runs the point on the top PP unit for Vegas
Honorable Mentions: Doughty, Barrie, Martinez, Dumba, Seabrook
Goalies
Goalies are not the easiest to predict, because just like a pitcher in baseball they can come out flat and once they get off to a rough start some don’t recover. I lean heavily on Vegas when choosing a goalie. Look at the money line and implied team total (ITT). Generally, it is a pay up spot. (This article is coming out before all goalies are confirmed. ALWAYS confirm starters before locking one in)
Goalies have been a royal pain in the balls this season. It seems like the ones with the highest money lines are the ones getting rocked.
“Variance is a fickle bitch”
Bobrovsky: EDM is struggling to score, they shoot a lot and the win seems pretty safe here. Bob is one of the top plays on the slate.
Crawford: Just play him in cash. He’s in a great spot and one of the best goalies in the league.
Fluery: Much riskier. He is in a great spot, Carolina is the best team in the league in CF/60, so the shots/saves will be there and most likely the win. However he is coming off a long injury and we don’t know how he will do seeing game action for the first time in a while.
Pick ‘Em
I can’t give away all my plays for free but I do think the best places to attack are VGK, CHI and MIN. As always, I’ll have my Pick Em notes in Slack closer to lock.
Slack is where the magic happens.
Hope this helps you. Remember join the DFS Army www.Dfsarmy.com/ref/32 use promo code PUCK for 20% the life of your subscription and follow me on Twitter @rflynndfs. Let’s make some money tonight!!