Before we get into tonight’s games, I want to give a huge shout-out Royal Rosario (@UW81) for making it to Key West for the DraftKings King of the Beach!! We have members every day grinding up their bankrolls and a couple times a month we have guys making life changing money. Join today and get your share of our winnings. We don’t give out lineups, we TEACH you how to build your own with the best tools, coaches, and Slack forum in the industry.
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I’ve found that DFS hockey is the most similar to baseball. You need correlation in both cash and GPP, pay up for the most reliable production (Goalie, Pitcher) when you can, and everyone’s floor is zero. Sidney Crosby can get you a goose egg, and Mike Trout can go 0-4 with three strike outs and kill your roster. It can happen, and it will happen. Just ride it out with me and you’ll have success.
I play more classic on FanDuel, and still play Pick ‘Em on DK, so when I talk stacks I will focus more on FD. The scoring is similar as far as points being weighted. For cash, you can mix and match pieces from my stacks to create your lineup. For cash I generally only do two forwards and maybe a defenseman for a 3-man stack, but that’s it. In cash, you want pieces of a lot of good scoring options. In GPP you live or die by your line stacks.
You hear a lot of people say “don’t play that guy, he’ll be too high owned.” Forget that nonsense, it is very overrated. Yes, you need some lower owned guy to go off. But if you build a solid team, you’ll have success. It’s highly unlikely that someone will have the exact same team as you. That’s true in all sports!
Without any further ado. Let’s break down tonight’s 11-game slate. The DET-STL game is going on while I’m typing this, so they didn’t make the main slate breakdown.
Forwards
For forwards, I focus on higher projected games, generally the top-2 lines on those teams – there will be times when line 3 will be in play it’s rare. Then I look at Corsi numbers, both for and against for that line and the line they will be matched up with for most of the game.
Boston 1: Bergeron, Pastrnak, Marchand: I love this line tonight. NYI is a decent defensively, but this has been one of the hottest lines in the league. Boston’s biggest edge in this game is on the PP, where these three play together and NYI is the worst PK team in the league.
Florida 1: Trocheck, Huberdeau, Bjugstad. With Trocheck back on this line they should produce a ton of shots on Col and run away in this game.
CBJ 1: Panarin, Anderson, Dubois My favorite stack on the slate. They are the top scoring line on the slate and Arizona is terrible against everything, so stack them up. They are affordable too. If you want, CBJ2 should have a good night as well, ARI’s second line is one of the worst at shot suppression in the league.
Honorable Mentions: NYI 2, Pitt 2, LAK 1, TB 2, DAL PP1, NYR 1, VAN PP1
More big wins ho hum
Defense
For defense, I look for floor. The main scoring is going to come from the forwards. By floor, I mean: shots on goal, blocks, points (those are harder to predict) and I want a defense man that gets a lot of ice time on the PP too. Just like in any other sport, you can’t score points if you’re on the bench.
Mikhail Sergachev: He is very affordable and one of the hottest defensemen in the league.
Brent Burns: Always in play, especially in cash. He has a very safe floor but has not been testing his ceiling yet this season. He gets 20-25 minutes of ice time a night and two shots and a block is a bad night for him (although that doesn’t help with his $7000 salary). SJ is seemingly in a great spot tonight but I really only like Burns as a one-off
Nick Leddy: Yes please! Since 11/12 he has one game with less than 10 FD points and that was a 9.6. He’s in a great spot and may be the best D-man on the board tonight. Tuukka will give up something and the way Leddy has been playing, he will absolutely contribute.
Morgan Rielly: is on a two game point streak, he’s one of the best CF/60 defensemen on the slate and this game should be a shootout.
Honorable Mentions: Ron Hainsey, Dougie Hamilton, Shea Weber, Torey Krug
Goalies
Goalies are not the easiest to predict, because just like a pitcher in baseball they can come out flat and once they get off to a rough start some don’t recover. I lean heavily on Vegas when choosing a goalie. Look at the money line and implied team total (ITT). Generally it is a pay up spot. (This article is coming out before all goalies are confirmed. ALWAYS confirm starters before locking one in)
Goalies have been a royal pain in the balls this season. It seems like the ones with the highest money lines are the ones getting rocked.
“Variance is a fickle bitch”
Korpisalo: He has the highest money line facing the lowest ITT. CBJ’s second line will give up shots so hopefully Korpi stands on his head and racks up the points.
Bishop: VGK is on a B2B and he has the help of the #1 defense in the league in front of him. There’s a chance he doesn’t get the shot volume to win you a GPP but he should be safe.
Dell: Ottawa is terrible. I’m not in love with this play, but I’m willing to play almost anyone against the Senators until they prove that they can get out of their own way.
Quick: He’s a little risky, Carolina is the #1 Corsi For team in the league so he will have plenty of opportunities to make saves.
Pick ‘Em
I can’t give away all my plays for free but I do think the best places to attack are LAK and DAL with a few other one-offs. As always, I’ll have my Pick Em notes in slack closer to lock.
Slack is where the magic happens.
Hope this helps you. Remember join the DFS Army www.Dfsarmy.com/ref/32 and follow me on Twitter @rflynndfs. Let’s make some money tonight!!