NBA DFS is a different kind of beast. Studs can outright win you a GPP with a massive performance and value plays can be brought to light just minutes before contest lock time due to late scratches or breaking news. It isn’t for the faint of heart and the most dedicated researchers and news followers will have a significant edge over the field. This column will be loaded with valuable research, metrics, and analysis on how to use this information in your contests.
Before we dive deep into the slate, let’s take a peek at a few situations to monitor and exploit:
John Wall – He did not play on Sunday due to a weak and feeble knee. His backup, Tim Frazier, played a full allotment of minutes (35) and will be a plug and play on Monday if Wall is out again due to his nearly bare minimum price tag.
Tim Hardaway Jr. – He’s questionable for Monday’s game. If he were to miss, Kristaps Porzginis would be close to a mortal lock. As much as I don’t like to use the “lock” term, his usage rate jumps 5.3% with THJ off the court. His usage would sit at 42.5% if this scenario plays out on Monday. At $8,700 on DraftKings, Porzingis would have plenty of cash and GPP appeal.
Tyreke Evans – He could miss Monday’s game due to a shoulder injury. The Grizzlies haven’t played many minutes with both Mike Conley and Tyreke Evans off the court this season. However, in the limited minutes, Marc Gasol has a 30.8% usage rate and scores 1.48 FP/Min. He’s fairly priced on both FanDuel and DraftKings (FD/DK).
Paul Millsap – He hurt his wrist on Sunday and likely won’t play tonight. It will be a situation to monitor and take advantage of if we can gain some clarity. Faried, at the minimum price, could get some extra run if he misses the game. Jokic has a pristine matchup and should be rested after being ejected last night.
Let’s get to work!
Guards
Bradley Beal – If John Wall misses Monday’s matchup, Beal’s 25.9% usage rate will likely see an enormous spike in what should be a very competitive game against the Bucks. Beal had a 31.48% usage rate (5.5% higher than his season average) with Wall out of the lineup on Sunday. He’s a fantastic play on FanDuel and DraftKings and would make an ideal target to stack with Giannis with the game theory that these two takes over during a back and forth game.
Nicolas Batum – He’s under-priced on DK ($6,200) and has tremendous upside at that price point. The visiting Timberwolves have a terrible defense efficiency and are on the second leg of a back to back. He’s scoring 1.03 FP/Min and the Hornets are implied to score almost 4.0 points more than their season-long average. If the Hornets exceed their implied total and the 2.0 spread holds true, we should have a nice back and forth game with a lot of scoring, making Batum a fantastic play at a depressed price point.
Rajon Rondo – His minutes’ cap continue to rise and we could see him nearing 26-28 minutes on Monday. He’s priced well on both FD ($5,000) and DK ($4,800) which makes him a great cash game target as the Pelicans take on the Thunder. He’s scoring 1.27 FP/Min and could rack up solid assists and steals against Westbrook “defense”.
Tim Frazier – He will be an elite plug and play option on Monday if Wall is out. As noted above, he will be locked into heavy minutes and at a bare minimum price with all of the superstars available on the slate, we basically have to play him to keep pace with the field.
Kemba Walker – He is at home, the Hornets are implied to score 108.0 points, and he faces the weak defense of the Timberwolves. Yes, please! Walker makes for an elite GPP play and should play heavy minutes in a competitive fast-paced game. He’s taken 17-plus field goal attempts in the last four games and has scored 20-plus real-life points in all four. Kemba is a streaky player and can have monster outings when he’s shooting the ball well. Time to ride him until he goes cold.
J.J. Redick – He continues to be one of my favorite cash game players every single slate because his price never rises. He’s taking nearly 15 shots per game and can knock them down from the outside for bonus points on DraftKings. He’s played over thirty minutes in 9 of the last 10 games and made or exceeded his value in 7 of those 10 games.
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Forwards
Kristaps Porzingis – THJ being out would leave his 22.5% usage rate of for grabs. As noted above, Porzingis gets a major bump in usage rate if this scenario comes to fruition.
Blake Griffin – I love his price on both FanDuel and DraftKings. His usage has been 36.91%, 39.08%, 28.85%, and 27.89% over the last four games. He’s scoring at will but not filling up the peripheral stats. If he just adds those in then he likely scores in the 50’s fantasy points wise.
Giannis Antetokounmpo – The Bucks have a pace-up game on Monday against the Wizards. Giannis has attempted 20-plus field goal attempts in five of the last seven games. With that type of volume and a faster-paced game playing right into his toolset, Giannis has the potential to score the most points on the entire slate by a wide margin.
LeBron James – The Cavaliers have an implied total of 109.0 points and are 2.5 point favorites on the road against the Pistons. LBJ has been in full carry mode for the better part of a couple weeks now. He’s playing massive minutes and has insane usage. Over the last ten games, LBJ has had a usage rate of 29.93 or higher in nine of the games.
Paul George – He has attempted over 20 shots four times in the last eight games and is playing massive minutes (36-plus in all eight games). During that game span, PG13 has cleared 36 fantasy points six times, including four games of 40-70 fantasy points. He’s a fantastic GPP alternative to those who fade LBJ and Giannis. If fading them, go with PG13 and pay up for DeMarcus Cousins.
Dario Saric – He’s still underpriced on DraftKings ($4,700). I eluded to his upside in my last article and he responded with his best outing of the entire season. I am going back to the well with Saric and the Sixers offense as the Jazz look completely out of sorts without Rudy Gobert holding down the fort.
Wilson Chandler – He could get some serious run in Monday’s matchup with Paul Millsap likely out. The Nuggets could go small ball and move Chandler to the four and start Barton at small forward. Offensively, this would be a boon to Chandler’s prospects, as he has thrived at the four spot in the past. He’s adequately priced on both sites, however, his DK price is slightly cheaper than FD which makes him a better value there. Although, I would want to choose between him and Saric on DK and likely would only play both together on FD because of the position differences.
Thaddeus Young – While Orlando has the highest total of the night (112.0 points), the Pacers aren’t far behind with a 108.5 implied point total. Aaron Gordon likely will carry higher ownership because of his name brand and Vegas line. However, Young has been more consistent and makes the better cash game play at a cheaper price tag.
Robert Covington – He continues to be a phenomenal GPP play and is always under-owned. His DK price is much easier to swallow at $6,100, however, I will find it hard to play him over the aforementioned forwards above. I would only use him in a game stack with other Sixers and Jazz.
Ben Simmons – If there is any reason to fade LBJ and Giannis, it would be Porzingis without THJ, Simmons in a tough perceived matchup, and Cousins as a pivot off Embiid at low ownership. That would be my ideal GPP trio to lock in while building my main tournament lineup. Simmons has been stuffing the stat sheet no matter the pace, implied total, or DvP.
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Centers
Marcin Gortat – He’s been playing a few more minutes as of late, clearing thirty twice in the past four games. Meanwhile, he’s turned in three straight performances over 27 fantasy points. He’s $2,000 cheaper right now than what he was when the season started. These are the types of players to target as their production returns to the mean and we use them until their price rises again. Kind of like the stock market, buy low when you can and sell high when the time comes.
DeMarcus Cousins – His 28.6% usage rate and 57.8 FP/Game make him a fantastic GPP target in a tough matchup against the Thunder. His ownership should be low because of the other studs on the slate and fantastic options at center. All the more reason to use him in large field GPPs.
Nikola Jokic – I briefly mentioned what a great play he would be in the synopsis of the slate at the beginning of the article. Suffice it to say, with Millsap out and having fresh legs after playing fewer minutes than normal on the first leg of a back to back, Jokic is in a superb position to go nuts on Monday against the Kings.
Kevin Love – He keeps destroying his salary value and has become one of my favorite GPP targets when fading LBJ. I normally won’t play them together but rarely will go a slate without playing one of them. He has scored 63, 52, and 45 fantasy points in three of the last five games. He has tremendous upside and Andre Drummond will have plenty of trouble following Love out to the three-point line. Drummond also could get some quick early fouls with LBJ driving it to the hoop which would only elevate Love’s performance around the rim with Drummond on the bench.
I am so excited to be providing content for the NBA season and I will see you all in Slack chat #dailydonuts #nfl-talk and #nba-talk. You can find me on Twitter @DFSnDONUTS where I post my daily articles and love to interact with my followers.
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