As we try to find our edge in Pick ‘Em on DK, I have been playing with different numbers to find the best predictors of success. Well, as predictable as DFS NHL can be.
I have been using team Corsi For (CF/60), team Corsi Against (CA/60), total CF and CA for individual players, blocked shots + shots on goal (BS+SOG) in the last ten games, total points (goals + assists) in the last 10. They seen to have put us on a lot of solid plays so far but today I want to try a new stat. Individual CF (iCF/60) per 60 minutes played. I think this will give us a better idea of how each player is performing instead of using a raw total number. No guarantees but I’m going to try it out for a few slates and if it sucks let me know. I don’t want to lead you in the wrong direction. I will point out where each tier stacks up and who is having the most success.
If you want to look at the raw numbers get in the DFS Army and look at Jim Keenan’s (@rk101785) chart breakdown in Slack. We also have terrific coaches and contributors for Classic NHL on FD and DK.
As you know, nothing is a guarantee in NHL DFS except wild swings of highs and lows. Even cash games are frustrating at times. It’s a season long grind.
All my numbers come from RG, Corsica.hockey, Left Wing Lock or Vegas Insider for the money lines. If you need any explanation or just want to say hi feel free to DM me or tag me in Slack. Also follow me on Twitter @rflynndfs and if it’s your first time reading this and you like it, join the DFS Army https://wp.dfsarmy.com/ref/32/.
Two games and six tiers tonight
NYR (2.75) @ CBJ -144 (3.25)
BUF @ DET (no ML at the time of this writing)
Tier 1
Kane (1/PP1)
Zibanejad (1/PP1)
Eichel (1/PP1)
DK is making you make tough decisions right off the bat. I like Buff a lot tonight and these two are always a good stack but since I’m forced to choose, it’s Kane. He has the top iCF/60 in the tier at 17.99 and he has the top BS+SOG on the entire slate with eight points in the last 10. Zibanejad has low BS+SOG, but he’s been very efficient with those shots. He has 13 points in the last 10.
Tier 2
Mantha (1/PP1)
Buchnevich (1/PP1)
O’Reilly (2/PP1)
Atkinson (1/PP1)
All the BS+SOG are basically a wash in this tier they range from 28-32, so there’s no real edge there. Buchnevich (12) and Mantha (11) are both having scoring success in the last ten. But, Atkinson has the edge in iCF/60 by over two points, he only has 3 points in the last ten though. I really like the Blue Jackets tonight and I don’t think DET can match their eight-goal performance from the other night. So for me it’s Cam Atkinson and Pavel Buchnevich, with the edge to Atkinson.
Tier 3
Nash (2/PP2)
Larkin (2/PP2)
Panarin (2/PP1)
Zuccarello (2/PP1)
This is another tier where the numbers are all very close. Nash has the edge in all three categories. Larkin is really close to him in all three, but again I’m not sure I trust DET tonight. This is a very GPP night for me and I’m going heavy on CBJ so I’m leaning Panarin. He makes a good pairing with Atkinson for PP1 exposure.
Tier 4
Shattenkirk (PP1)
Athanasiou (2/PP1)
Jones (PP1)
Pominville (3/PP2)
Kreider (1/PP1)
Kreider has great career numbers against CBJ so just for that, he’s worthy of some exposure tonight. His peripherals are solid too, but everyone is way behind Athanasiou. He is coming off a three point game two nights ago and has the highest iCF/60 on the slate. Shattenkirk is racking up points, 10 in the last 10 but his iCF/60 is terrible (we’ll see how telling that new stat is).
Tier 5
Zetterberg (1/PP2)
Nyquist (1/PP2)
Foligno (2/PP1)
Bjorkstrand (2/PP2)
Okposo (2/PP1)
Reinhart (1/PP2)
Nick Foligno is the only guy on the slate without a point in the last ten, so I’m off of him. Bjorkstrand has the lowest BS+SOG on the slate but he has six goals in the last 10 and a solid iCF/60. I’m either going with him to pair with Panarin on line 2 or Reinhart and pairing him with Kane or Eichel.
Tier 6
Green (PP1)
Jenner (1/PP2)
Nielsen (3/PP1)
Tatar (2/PP2)
Hayes (2/ no PP)
Scandella (PP1)
Dubinsky (1/no PP)
Scandella has the highest BS+SOG, second on the slate only to Kane, but he only has three points in the last 10 and he has the worst iCF/60 on the slate. Jenner has six points in the last 10, the number 2 BS+SOG in the tier and the number 2 iCF/60. The only one ahead of him in BS+SOG and iCF/60 is Nielsen and unless it’s a large field tourney I’m off DET.
**goal prediction: Chris Kreider**
Hope this helps. Remember follow me on Twitter @rflynndfs and have fun and make some money tonight.