Flynnie’s Forecheck by RFlynn710
As we try to find our edge in Pick ‘Em on DK, I have been playing with different numbers to find the best predictors of success. Well, as predictable as DFS NHL can be.
I have been using team Corsi For (CF/60), team Corsi Against (CA/60), total CF and CA for individual players, blocked shots + shots on goal (BS+SOG) in the last ten games, total points (goals + assists) in the last 10. They seem to have put us on a lot of solid plays so far but today I want to try a new stat. Individual CF (iCF/60) per 60 minutes played. I think this will give us a better idea of how each player is performing instead of using a raw total number. No guarantees but I’m going to try it out for a few slates and if it sucks let me know. I don’t want to lead you in the wrong direction. I will point out where each tier stacks up and who is having the most success.
If you want to look at the raw numbers get in the DFS Army and look at Jim Keenan’s (@rk101785) chart breakdown in Slack. Follow him on Twitter under the same name. We also have terrific coaches and contributors for Classic NHL on FD and DK and every other sport.
As you know, nothing is a guarantee in NHL DFS except wild swings of highs and lows. Even cash games are frustrating at times. It’s a season-long grind.
All my numbers come from RG, Corsica.hockey, Left Wing Lock or Vegas Insider for the money lines. If you need any explanation or just want to say hi feel free to DM me or tag me in Slack. Also, follow me on Twitter @rflynndfs and if it’s your first time reading this and you like it, join the DFS Army https://wp.dfsarmy.com/ref/32/.
We have five games and eight tiers tonight.
VGK -123 (2.86) @ ARI (2.64)
MIN (2.49) @ STL -149 (3.01)
WPG (2.57) @ SJ (2.93) -135
CGY -102 (2.72) @ COL -108 (2.78)
ANA (2.57) @ LAK -135 (2.93)
**Just in the time it took to write this article Vegas has moved toward COL and ANA**
Tier 1
Tarasenko (1/PP1)
Gaudreau (1/PP1)
Kopitar (1/PP1)
Tarasenko (shocking I know!) is one of my favorites tonight. He leads the tier in iCF/60 and BS+SOG and has 12 points in the last ten. Minnesota is middle of the road defensively and this line is high powered. I was all over them last night and they had a dud, so I have no issue going back to the well. Howweeevvaaa, Johnny Hockey is in a smashing spot tonight. Gaudreau has 19 points in the last ten. He’s on one of the top scoring lines in the league, going against a bad defensive team and on the top PP unit and Colorado is awful on the PK. Kopitar is in a good spot too Anaheim is the worst CA/60 team in the league so there should be plenty of shots on goal and Kopitar will be involved, no question.
Tier 2
Schenn (1/PP1)
Monahan (1/PP1)
MacKinnon (1/PP1)
Scheifele (1/PP1)
Monahan (see Gaudreau), he has very similar numbers and is in a great spot. Schenn, not quite the numbers as Senko but he does have more points over the last ten. Again, I will go back to the well on this line. Scheifele has good numbers and he’s going against one of the best defensive teams in the league in SJ ( 5-on-5 and PK). The PP is where I’m intrigued by WPG they have the #4 PP in the league and SJ has the #2 PK. I don’t hate that stack for GPP since SJ isn’t playing all that well right now. Speaking of PK, STL is the #30 team in PK. COL PP1 is a deep GPP option, start that stack with Nate MacKinnon.
Tier 3
Pietrangelo (PP1)
Wheeler (1/PP1)
Schwartz (1/PP1)
Burns (PP1)
Rakell (1/PP1)
Burns has the best iCF/60 and most BS+SOG in the tier. Schwartz and Pietrangelo correlate well with Senko and Schenn and both have solid numbers. Rakell has very good numbers but LAK is solid defensively. I’m not sold on much here but if I’m making one team, I’m probably going Burns.
Tier 4
Couture (2/PP2)
Landeskog (1/PP1)
Neal (1/PP1)
Laine (2/PP1)
Brown (2/PP1)
This tier is tough too. Couture has been shooting and not scoring and he doesn’t really correlate with anyone. I only like Landeskog for the same reasons I mentioned with MacKinnon. I think Neal is my favorite in this tier. We can take advantage of ARI’s mediocrity on the defensive end. ARI has been a pain recently though. Laine‘s numbers stick out but SJ is really good defensively. So I’m worried about that whole team. LAK messed with their lines so we can only manage a three-man stack. I loved it when Brown and Kopitar were on the same line, but now they only match up on the PP. Still a solid option tonight though.
Tier 5
Karlsson (2/PP1)
Keller (2/PP1)
Zucker (2/PP2)
Ehlers (2/PP2)
Granlund (1/PP1)
Pavelski (1/PP1)
Karlsson leads the tier in BS+SOG and scoring over the last ten. I really like VGK today. The more research I do, the more they stick out to me for the Pick Em slate tonight. A sneaky play I like tonight is MIN. I’m just not sure exactly where I want to go with it. Zucker and Granlund have very similar numbers with the biggest difference being iCF/60 in favor of Granlund. STL is not very good on the PK so either one could be good with their line or PP unit. Pavelski is shooting and not scoring (shocking for a Shark, I know!), Maybe a Pav/Burns mini-stack could work but I’m not crazy about it. I think I’m going either Karlsson or one of the Wild in this tier.
Tier 6
Marchessault (2/PP1)
Staal (2/PP2)
Ekman-Larson (PP1)
Rantanen (1/PP1)
Steen (2/PP1)
Perry (1/PP1)
Rantanen – see Landeskog/MacKinnon. Marchessault is near the top of the tier in BS+SOG, tied for the lead in scoring and leads by a bunch in iCF/60. OEL has the lead in BS+SOG but nothing else significant, unless you pair him and Keller for a VGK hedge. Staal has very similar numbers to Marchessault and makes a great pairing with Zucker if you go that way.
Tier 7
Niederrieter (2/PP1)
Toffoli (1/PP2)
Doughty (PP1)
Koivu (1/PP1)
Stastny (2/PP2)
Perron (1/PP2) – He has a DTD tag so watch that injury
This is where you finalize your MIN stack, Niederrieter correlates with Zucker and Staal on line 2 and Koivu works with Grandlund. A PP stack works too for the Wild but the only problem is both in this tier are in the same unit. Toffoli has excellent numbers and now plays on the top line with Kopitar. Perron makes a great mini-stack with Neal, but again watch that injury designation bc if he’s out all the VGK lines may get jumbled.
Tier 8
Barrie (PP1)
Suter (PP1)
Smith (2/PP2)
Connor (1/PP1)
Hamilton (PP2)
Byfuglien (PP1)
Kempe (2/PP2)
I like Hamilton a lot with the Gaudreau/Monahan stack. He doesn’t match up with them on the PP but gets plenty of ice time with the top line as the top pairing defenseman. He has the top BS+SOG and iCF/60 in the tier. I’d only use Barrie with the Avs I mentioned earlier. Smith has limited BS+SOG but good scoring in the last ten (9 points) but you can fit the whole VGK 2 stack in a lineup if you want. I think I will have at least one with that line. Kempe doesn’t have great numbers but he plays with Brown on the second line and Toffoli on the second PP unit. If you want WPG take your pick with Byfuglien or Connor and pair them with Scheifele and Wheeler. Suter is the QB on the top MIN PP unit so don’t forget about him. He also has seven points in the last ten.
***goal prediction: Jonathan Marchessault***
Hopefully, this helps! Remember to double check all the line combos tonight. Every team is on a B2B and the injury reports aren’t completely updated yet. Don’t forget about the travel to Denver, it takes a toll on every team esp on a B2B
Remember to follow me on Twitter @rflynndfs and use my promo link https://wp.dfsarmy.com/ref/32/ to sign up for the best deal in DFS. Most importantly, have fun and win some money tonight.