Flynnie’s Forecheck by RFlynn710
As we try to find our edge in Pick ‘Em on DK, I have been playing with different numbers to find the best predictors of success. Well, as predictable as DFS NHL can be.
I have been using team Corsi For (CF/60), team Corsi Against (CA/60), total CF and CA for individual players, blocked shots + shots on goal (BS+SOG) in the last ten games, total points (goals + assists) in the last 10. They seen to have put us on a lot of solid plays so far but today I want to try a new stat. Individual CF (iCF/60) per 60 minutes played. I think this will give us a better idea of how each player is performing instead of using a raw total number. No guarantees but I’m going to try it out for a few slates and if it sucks let me know. I don’t want to lead you in the wrong direction. I will point out where each tier stacks up and who is having the most success.
If you want to look at the raw numbers get in the DFS Army and look at Jim Keenan’s (@rk101785) chart breakdown in Slack. We also have terrific coaches and contributors for Classic NHL on FD and DK.
As you know, nothing is a guarantee in NHL DFS except wild swings of highs and lows. Even cash games are frustrating at times. It’s a season long grind.
All my numbers come from RG, Corsica.hockey, Left Wing Lock or Vegas Insider for the money lines. If you need any explanation or just want to say hi feel free to DM me or tag me in Slack. Also, follow me on Twitter @rflynndfs and if it’s your first time reading this and you like it, join the DFS Army.
We have six games and eight tiers tonight:
CHI (2.63) @ TB -164 (3.37)
MTL @ NSH
DAL @ COL
SJ-134 (2.93) @ ARZ (2.57)
VGK (2.68) @ ANA -155 (3.32)
WPG (2.60) @ LAK -129 (2.90)
Tier 1
Kucherov (1/PP1)
Stamkos (1/PP1)
Benn (1/PP1)
P. Kane (2/PP2)
Kucherov is leading the tier in CF and scoring. He is also just behind Kane for the iCF/60 lead. Chicago is terrible defensively but they are solid on the PK, so that’s the only drawback to Kuch that I can find. Everyone is safe in this group but Kuch will be chalk and for good reason. Benn could be solid, Col is bad in CA as a team and terrible on the PK, so a DAL PP stack could be a solid way to go tonight.
Tier 2
Wheeler (1/PP1)
Scheifele (1/PP1)
Kopitar (1/PP1)
Rakell (1/PP1)
Burns (PP1)
Burns has the highest BS+SOG and iCF/60 on the entire slate, but the Sharks have been awful lately. If you want to go with a Shark he would be the only one I trust, but I’m not endorsing it. I wish I could put Scheifele and Wheeler together but their matchup against a solid Kings team isn’t the best. Scheifeleis so efficient when he shoots, it’s hard not to play him in at least one lineup every time he’s on the slate. The WPG PP leaves something to be desired so a Kings PP stack could pay dividends, esp as a late-night hammer. Start that with Kopitar. Rakell has been playing well lately and VGK isn’t great defensively. Not a great tier to be honest, Just use this tier to finish your correlation plays.
Tier 3
Seguin (2/PP1)
MacKinnon (1/PP1)
Couture (2/PP2)
Forsberg (1/PP1)
Laine (2/PP1)
Colorado makes a good GPP play tonight. MacKinnon has very good numbers lately, including 17 points in the last 10. Dallas is a very good defensive team but they are on a B2B and traveling to Denver (Ask Keith about the travel from the airport to the Pepsi Center). I also love the NSH PP1 tonight. MTL is on a road B2B too and probably without Shea Weber. MTL is solid in 5 on 5 defense but their PK is near the bottom of the league and NSH is #3. Fire up Forsberg.
Tier 4
Josi (PP2)
Radulov (1/PP1)
Hedman (PP1)
Perry (1/PP1)
Pavelski (1/PP1)
If you’re playing cash, play Josi and move on. He has the best BS+SOG and iCF/60 in the tier and nine points in the last ten games. Otherwise, stack him with NSH 1, he’s on a different PP unit but will get plenty of ice time with those guys. Radulov fits nicely with the DAL PP1 stack and Hedman with either Kuch or Stamkos. Unless you really want to play ANA I’m not on the other two in this tier.
Tier 5
Klingberg (PP1)
Arvidsson (1/PP1)
Keller (2/PP1)
Pacioretty (1/PP1)
D. Brown (1/PP1)
Saad (1/PP2)
My favorite here is Arvidsson. He leads the tier in scoring and right behind Pacioretty in iCF/60 and BS+SOG. If Weber was healthy, I’d be more on the Canadiens. Klingberg correlates well with DAL PP1 and has very good numbers. I don’t really like Keller but the Coyotes have been a pest lately so I’m going to have a piece of them. After Arvidsson, my next choice would be Brown and I think he will go over looked.
Tier 6
Landeskog (1/PP1)
Doughty (PP1)
Neal (1/PP1)
Marchessault (2/PP1)
Toews (1/PP1)
Anisimov (2/PP2)
Landeskog is right near the top of the tier in all categories and like I mentioned, Dallas has to travel into Denver. That brutal travel is worth at least one stack against the Stars. Doughty is the PP QB for LA so if you’re using Kopitar and Brown, throw him in there to finish the 3-man stack. The TB-Chi game could be very high scoring and both Anisimov and Toews are solid options. I prefer the Anisimov/Kane stack as opposed to Toews/Saad.
Tier 7
Point (2/PP2)
Weber – probably out DO NOT PLAY HIM
W. Karlsson (1/PP2)
Turris (2/PP2)
Silfverberg (2/PP1)
Connor (1/PP1)
Byfuglien (PP1)
I love the TB2 line tonight, I think everyone will load up on Stammer/Kuch and Hedman. This provides a very good line at lower ownership. So Point is my top choice in this tier. Turris makes a nice pairing with Josi for the PP2 stack but there’s no one else to correlate on that unit so it’s more of a cash move than GPP. Silfverberg leads the tier in BS+SOG and iCF/60 but only has 5 points in the last 10. Again, if you’re going ANA, throw him in. But I doubt I’m going that way.
Tier 8
Barrie (PP1)
Ekman-Larsson (PP1)
Perron (2/PP1)
Gourde (2/PP2)
Drouin (1/PP1)
Johansen (1/PP1)
Fowler (PP1)
I like this tier a lot. Johansen’s numbers don’t jump out at all but he will be part of my NSH1 stack.Gourde is tied for the lead in scoring with Perron. Gourde is part of TB2, so he will be stacked with Point. I like Barrie for the same reasons as I like MacKinnon and Landeskog. Last but not least OELhas the most BS+SOG in the tier and he’s one of only three guys to have over 50 in the last ten games (Pacioretty and Burns), I’m going to play him and Keller together just because AZ has been costing me money and I’m hoping to make some off of them tonight. Well, that and SJ has been terrible lately and should not be trusted. Even against a bad Coyotes team.
Stacks (in no particular order)
LAK PP1
NSH1
TB 1 and 2
DAL PP1
COL PP1
OEL/Keller – Just out of spite
***Goal Prediction: Nate MacKinnon**
Hope this helps. Remember, follow me on Twitter @rflynndfs and let’s win some money tonight!