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*Note: To find the best value on a given slate, I run a query on the DFS Army Domination Station optimizer with settings at “10 lineups with three unique players.” I refer to this as the “10/3 theory.” You can set it however you want, but when I refer to a player being in X amount of DraftKings lineups and Y amount of FanDuel lineups, this is my basis in this article.
POINT GUARDS:
*STUDS
Stephen Curry (GS vs HOU)
The two-time MVP will likely avoid CP3 for most of the night, and it seems as if the DS knows this already- Curry is listed on nine lineups on DraftKings and four on FanDuel. The Chef averaged 47.7 DKP/43.3 FDP against the Rockets last season, and that was with Patrick Beverley defending him.
Kyrie Irving (BOS @ CLE)
It doesn’t get any better than this in terms of revenge, as Kyrie will be heading back to the only NBA city he has ever known. He’ll get a matchup with D-Rose, who ranked 442nd out of 468 NBA players in Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM) last season- 65th out of 73 point guards. The DS likes Kyrie a lot more on FanDuel, where he is calculated into eight lineups as opposed to only one on DraftKings.
Chris Paul (HOU @ GS)
Some might worry about how this dynamic backcourt duo will coincide, but I am not one of them. CP3 and Harden played tons of pick-up ball over the summer and Rockets head coach Mike D’Antoni ran his starters for plenty of minutes in the preseason. While most people will flock to Curry and Kyrie, CP3 is a nice play at point guard in these larger tournaments.
*VALUE
Derrick Rose (CLE vs BOS)
Purely a matchup-based play going up against Kyrie, who has always been allergic to defense.
Marcus Smart, Terry Rozier (BOS @ CLE)
*Smart: We have him projected at 29 minutes tonight and that sounds about right. However, my only fear about using Smart is that he’ll be more focused on the defensive end of court. If you must indulge, I would suggest using Smart on FanDuel where the defensive-based stats are worth more.
*Rozier: The kid can ball, but just as the case has been during his NBA career, how many minutes will he get? We have Rozier getting 22 minutes and could work, but you have to be patient. Rozier had a solid preseason playing about 20 minutes each game, averaging 10.5 points per game and chipping in sparingly with the peripherals.
SHOOTING GUARDS:
*STUDS
James Harden (HOU @ GS)
We all know he is one of the best in the biz, but he’s also a burden on the rest of your salary cap; the DS isn’t a huge fan of Harden tonight because of that. Keep in mind, Harden averaged 55.8 DKP/48.3 FDP against the Warriors last season, and that is all while being defended by the versatile Klay Thompson. I feel like the addition of CP3 won’t do much to cut into Harden’s production, so he will be a damn fine play more often than not. The issue, as always, is finding enough pieces to fit in around him.
Klay Thompson (GS vs HOU)
The ultimate GPP play, Thompson’s first two games against the Rockets last season were nothing to write home about (27.5 DKP/24.7 FDP, 20.8 DKP/18.7 FDP), while the other two were fantastic (42.3 DKP/38.5 FDP, 43.5 DKP/40.6 FDP)- however, those two fantastic performances were without Kevin Durant in the lineup.
*VALUE
Dwayne Wade (CLE vs BOS)
I have no idea why he’s only $5200 on DraftKings, but alright, if they insist. We saw D-Wade take control of the offense in his limited preseason time with the Cavs, and in their preseason dress rehearsal, he was the go-to guy on the second unit.
Jaylen Brown (BOS @ CLE)
The DS has Brown as a much more favorable play on FanDuel (nine lineups) tonight than on DraftKings (two lineups.) Personally, I feel like he’s playable on both sites due to the $3700 price tag, but it’s especially beneficial to have access to him at the small forward position on DraftKings.
Eric Gordon (HOU @ GS)
He’s a solid value play, but I do worry about his usage coming down a bit on the second unit. D’Antoni already mentioned that he will have a “Hall-of-Fame point guard on the floor at all times this season.” That sounds great for the Rockets, but not so much for E-Gordy’s production. All in all, I think he’ll be fine in the long run, but I’ll take this narrative with a grain of salt and watch how it plays out tonight.
SMALL FORWARDS:
*STUDS
Kevin Durant (GS vs HOU)
Despite the nine-inch height difference, Chris Paul has always defended KD when the two have crossed paths. It’s not like KD has ever been completely shut down by CP3, but there will certainly be an annoying pest on his hip all night. Most people will likely go this route over LBJ and I don’t think the CP3 thing is enough to detract that, especially with late word of Andre Iguodala missing tonight’s game- that could mean a serious workload for KD.
LeBron James (CLE vs BOS)
There was some concern over whether he would play, but it appears like there was never any doubt. However, LBJ noticeably had some rust (7 TOs) in the lone preseason game and he hasn’t had much work with his new bandwagon of Cavs teammates. It’s tough to be picky about the best basketball player ever (that’s right), but there are a few warning signs to make you spend money on the other top-dollar options.
Gordon Hayward (BOS @ CLE)
It’s not the greatest matchup for Hayward, but he should see plenty of time on the court tonight with all of the Celtics injuries down low.
* VALUE
Trevor Ariza, PJ Tucker (HOU @ GS)
*Ariza: I am somewhat worried that CP3 will eat into his usage, but Ariza will likely see minutes in the upper-30s for most of this season, barring foul trouble. He is a massive bargain at $4500 on DraftKings, and not as valuable at $5600 on FanDuel.
*Tucker: I feel like a lot of people are heavily undervaluing his role on the Rockets. Tucker is a glue-guy that can do multiple things, so we could see him have some benefit with the second-unit. A game like this can turn average players into fantasy superstars.
Jayson Tatum, Semi Ojeleye (BOS @ CLE)
Tatum is likely going to be the chalkiest player on this slate as such a fantastic value- $3900 DK/$3500 FD. Normally, all I need is the wind to be blowing the right way in order to fade massive chalk like this, but I’m having a tough time coming up with reasons to fade a guy that’ll play 30+ minutes at an essentially free price. The Celtics don’t have many bigs available and that just adds to the frustration of rolling with the chalk. Scott Souza, Celtics beat writer, also said that Ojeleye could have a big role- he didn’t have a great preseason, but I guess he could fall ass backwards into some fantasy points tonight.
POWER FORWARDS:
*STUDS
Draymond Green (GS vs HOU)
It’s a very interesting price contrast ($7000 DK/$8300 FD) on both sites, and it’s quite the dilemma considering FanDuel’s new three-point blocks/steals. If you played the NBA preseason contests, you saw how much of a difference guys like Green could make with those defensive gems.
Kevin Love (CLE vs BOS)
Much like DayDayG, there’s a noticeable difference in the pricing ($7800 DK/$7000 FD) on both sites. I am somewhat worried about Love’s production in his new role at center, as he didn’t even know that he was playing that position until a few weeks ago. Sure, it could be nothing, but if you’re looking to be picky on a two-game slate there’s the magic potion. The DS cares not, as he is listed in all 10 FanDuel lineups.
*VALUE
Jae Crowder (CLE vs BOS)
He’s a big fan of the DFS Army Domination Station tonight, calculated in 10 lineups on DraftKings and six on FanDuel. This is all based on the price, but I’ll certainly try and find another direction.
Ryan Anderson (HOU @ GS)
Much like his teammate Ariza, I feel like Anderson’s usage will take a big hit with the addition of CP3. However, as odd as it is, Anderson’s splits heavily favored him on the road last season. If you’re looking for ways to get weird on a two-game slate, this isn’t a bad route.
CENTERS:
*STUDS
Al Horford (BOS @ CLE)
He looked great in the preseason and I look for him to carry that momentum into opening night. Furthermore, the Celtics are lacking bodies down low tonight and Horford could legitimately play close to 40 minutes. I also noticed during the “fake games” that K-Love really struggled on the defensive end playing his newly-appointed center position. The DS loves Horford a lot more on DraftKings as he calculates in all 10 lineups there, as opposed to only four on FanDuel.
Clint Capela (HOU @ GS)
Averaged 17 points and 10.7 rebounds in his last three appearances against the Warriors.
*VALUE
Aron Baynes (BOS @ CLE)
Strictly a minutes-based play and the Celtics are looking for bigs to put on the court tonight. The Celtics can’t stop raving about this guy’s tenacity down low, but he is dealing with some minor knee issues heading into the season. Baynes says he’s ok, but don’t they all?
Zaza Pachulia, JaVale McGee (GS vs HOU)
On a night where savings are oh-so vital to fitting in as many studs as possible, center might not be the worst place to punt. Both guys aren’t going to fill up the stat sheet but they allow us to get the guys in that will.