Its time foooooorrrr…the most useless article of the year! It’s really hard to predict plate tracks. All we can do is talk strategy, and how different drivers fit into that. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
A couple of notes that I always like to note on restrictior plate tracks:
- Most importantly, the restrictor plates. On track, the cars have about the same horsepower – meaning they will be nose to tail all day. This means drivers who usually aren’t relevant get made relevant, and if there is a crash – it’s going to end the day of 3-15 drivers in an instant.
- There is only 188 laps. Meaning we only have 47 laps led points to give out, and depending on how cautions come probably only 60 fast lap points. This puts a premium on on place differential.
- It’s very seldom that the optimal lineup maxes that salary cap. Whacky lineups galore.
I think the most important thing this week will be playing at least five differential plays. Take a look at this table provided by the lovely and talented Taco:
As you can see, the sweet spot is 26th starting spot or worse. Drivers in the back also have the benefit of more fast laps, since the cars infront of them are cutting the air for them.
Now regardless of what strategy you play this week – plate tracks have a DNF rate of around 20%. Meaning every driver in the field this Sunday will have a one in five chance of not completing all the laps. This makes just about any strategy volatile. With that in mind, understanding the correct optimal place differential strategy certainly gives us an edge.
Rather than give you top plays, fades, and values, here is a list of drivers that you can give significant exposure too, with bolded drivers particularly valuable. Now, I think you CAN sprinkle in some top 20 drivers, but I would avoid more than 1 per lineup.
Ty Dillon
Aric Almirola
Ryan Newman
Chris Buescher
Michael McDowell
Landon Cassill
Justin Marks
Matt DiBenedetto
David Ragan
Brendan Gaughan
Jeffrey Earnhardt
Joey Gase
Cole Whitt
Gray Gaulding
D.J. Kennington
I will also echo what I said about the Fords in general on Wednesday:
The Fords, from top to bottom, are the motto this week. There is a theory, and I’ll stress this is only a theory (I HAVE NO EVIDENCE), that the Ford body style is much more conducive to effective plate racing than the Chevy’s and the Toyota’s – especially when they get out in front of the pack. The last seven plate races have been won by Fords – and to me, that is no coincidence. If you must play someone starting up front, play a Ford.
In summary, play the drivers above heavily, sprinkle in a few drivers starting towards the front (Harvick sticks out), and limit your exposure to any one driver.
So there it is folks, use that to start your research. We will be talking more strategy on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock, and thats what it will be all about this week. Strategy. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.