NBA Primer
As the NBA season approaches and we may have some people transitioning from MLB and NFL I thought I would write down a couple of things that will help you in refining your NBA process for the season.
- Keeping up with Injuries
- If you were to ask me what is the most important thing about NBA DFS I would tell you that if you can’t be on Twitter or in our VIP Slack Chat chat around an hour half before lock I would not even bother playing. I can not tell you how many times I have had a portfolio of players you have decided on throughout the day and all that goes out the window with news 10 minutes before lock. NBA DFS is a game you have to be very engaged in. It is not as easy as just looking for starting lineup or starting goalies. If a starting point guard is all of the sudden out and his $4,500 backup is going to get 30+ minutes you had better start that guy.
- Minutes Are King
- In the game of NBA DFS, it starts and ends with minutes. NBA DFS is a unique beast in that one big play cannot salvage a players night. In baseball, for instance, you could have a batter go 0-3 but then on his fourth at-bat he hits a home run and saves the day. That does not happen in NBA due to the nature of constant scoring. If you player has put up a dud and is going into the fourth quarter it is very hard for that player to salvage his night. We need guys who are going to get consistent minutes. Minutes create opportunities for players to get an extra rebound, assist, point, steal, etc. Now there is one caveat here in that there are some guys who play a ton of minutes but are not very active in other stat categories. Think of a guy like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope last year for the Pistons. He plays a ton of minutes but he is very scoring dependant. The majority of the time though we are looking to target guys who are going to get a ton of minutes.
- Fantasy Points Per Minute (FPPM)
- One of my favorite stats in NBA DFS is fantasy points per minute due to a couple factors. One reason I like it is that we can get a simple baseline projection down for players and adjust it a little bit due to pace, matchup, and implied total. It is also helpful for us to quickly get a rough calculation for last-minute injury replacements to see how they will do with an increase in minutes. A final reason I like it is for finding guys who may play a ton of minutes but do not have a ton of production in those minutes. Similar to the KCP example I gave earlier.
- Vegas and Pace
- I almost always start out my research the same way every day by checking the totals and the pace matchups. We are looking to target high scoring games in which both teams have high pace numbers. That is the unique thing about NBA is that some games like a Warriors vs. Rockets matchup will sometimes have almost have 1.5x a number of possessions as say a Jazz-Grizzlies game. Now I am not saying you can not target a Jazz-Grizzlies game just know though that your players are going to have a lot less room for error. There are going to be more rebounds, more shots, more points, and more fantasy opportunities in the other game.
- Optimal Lineups and the Domination Station
- As DFS has gotten more and more advanced so has the overall player ecosystem. I am not going to say it is impossible to keep up without using optimizers or computer programs but it is going to be very tough. In saying that I also do not recommend people blindly play an “optimal lineup” either. What I like to do closer to lock is go to the Domination Station maybe run 10-20 different lineups see what players keep popping up in lineups and then use some human intuition to finally settle on a final optimal lineup. We have had some great success with the Domination Station last year and it is a great place to start to get an optimal lineup. The best way is to read all the articles like Boomer’s Ballers, the NBA Research Station, and get a feel for who people are high on and then check out the Domination Station. People always say NBA is one of the most predictable sports and that is true to an extent, but sometimes we do need to use a little intuition when we clearly see a guy we don’t think is optimal.
- Final Thoughts
- This is just a rudimentary article but hopefully, one that can help new players and seasoned players brush up on some topics. One of the things I must stress though is that even though this is daily fantasy sports you must treat it like a season-long sport if you want to stay profitable. It’s always said NBA is the most predictable sport but in saying that there is still a ton of randomness. A guy can literally be the best matchup in the world and throw up a dud. You can also have 75% of one player in your lineups and he ends up getting injured and your night is done. Looking at you Anthony Davis. Take it slow use smart bankroll management and most of all enjoy the season!
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