Another awesome week of NFL DFS is upon us, and I have a new concept for you guys. #BoxCheckers!! Simply put, this will be an article designed to turn all we talk about into a visual graphic for quick verification. We can’t cover all the players at all the positions here, but we can cover quite a few. And, we can get most of the relevant players in there. This article will be locked up any week now and only be available to our VIP members.
We still need to use a little common sense, but the idea here is to watch those that we don’t think are in great spots still bring value based on the criteria we lay out below. In time, we should see how home field performs, how targets and touches outweigh match up, and how tying this all together helps us roster safe plays in an unsafe world.
Week 5 Checkdown Video Review – 10 minutes
Quarterbacks
Basics – we want them home, favored, and scoring points. Efficiency matters here. Attempt volume is nice, but if we sail that ball over our receivers’ heads, it doesn’t ultimately matter. QBR and ProPrem are efficiency metrics to help us solve that part of the equation.
7 stars – Deshaun Watson is the only full 7-star QB I’ve seen since doing this article. That honestly tells you all you need to know about why he will be the chalk QB this week. The secret is out. In your cash games, you just use him, especially at his price, and move on. With his upside, I don’t even see the need to pay above his salary in GPPs. To me, the only realistic pivots are to cheaper QBs.
6 stars – Tom Brady generally finds his way up this list, but honestly I’m not using anyone priced over Watson. It just makes no sense to me. When I go to the grocery store and love the Hydrox cookie, I don’t buy the Oreo just to be different. This is the same concept. Just like real life, you need to work pretty hard to get money out of this cheapskate’s pockets. Kirk Cousins is the pivot I’d gladly use. Darned near same price, and arguably could outperform the other QBs if Watson returns temporarily to planet Earth. No realistic running game helps this big spread, too.
5 Stars – Drew Brees might be the one player I’d use above Watson, but I really don’t see the need unless I’m trying to hit a homerun and pair him with the correct pass catcher for the double whammy. Matt Ryan is in a great spot, and is really sliding under everyone’s radar, but again, I’d only use him if pairing him up with a receiver for the double whammy. And, Alex Smith is really showing up in The Checkdown with increasing frequency. Every time I say his upside is limited, he comes out with some 27 Fanduel points and just leaves me cursing myself for doubting him this year. I still can’t quite pull the trigger, but admit this lack of faith is doing more harm than good.
Running Backs
Like quarterbacks, we are leaning on home favorites implied to score points. However, this is a volume position! We want carries and touches over matchup most times. Give me 35 touches in a horrible matchup over 8 touches against Little Sisters of the Poor. I exaggerate for effect, but hopefully you see my point. Running backs are the second most consistent source of fantasy points, which is why we typically pay up for the good ones getting all the work, especially in cash heavy formats.
5 stars – Leonard Fournette is the first name that pops off the page, and it should. The workload is more than there. Add in the crappy Rams run defense and a team reluctant to use their QB, and well, there should be no slowing down this week. Devonta Freeman is our other 5 star back, but I don’t see a lot of people using him. A lot are scared of the Tevin Coleman committee, but this has been a firm 2:1 touch ratio all year, where in year’s past it’s been more 5050. The price is high, but the spot is more than solid.
4 stars – Kareem Hunt has been a machine. At home, favored, Travis Kelce is set to play, Andy Reid is using him, high implied total, realistically it’s all there for this to be better than 4 stars. However, the 3rd down workload raises eyebrows a little and Pittsburgh isn’t super soft vs the run. At these prices, we need to look at every box we can conjure up. Todd Gurley is in a prime bounceback spot if you didn’t tune into the podcasts. I have no issues using him along with Fournette in cash games if going “double high.” Lamar Miller is interesting. He will get the touches. It’s a matter of how effective he can be with them. Short work gets gobbled up by Watson and Hopkins both, which in my opinion, hurts this ceiling a bit and increases it’s risk. If I could, I’d downgrade this to 3.5 stars. Chris Thompson is also intriguing. The homerun hitter that might not be used much with Washington being heavy favorites. However, with Rob Kelley dinged up and Samaje Perine being largely ineffective, you would think Thompson is the only option. Then, we go back to the coach-speak of “we don’t intend to give Thompson any more work than he is getting” and now we are really confused. When coaches open their mouths, it goes one of two ways. Thompson gets the usual workload, or he gets 1,000 touches. I don’t know which will come to fruition, but he makes for a neat tournament play for sure.
Wide Receivers
Here comes the hard category. Receivers are up and down when compared to the other pricey positions. Their targets fluctuate week to week, sometimes wildly. POW is really the same as “target share” and it does show us where the quarterback tends to look. The “under 18 points” and “over 27 points” categories are something to watch because the pricing algorithms on the sites tend to overlook good players in these spots. We don’t get those boxes checked often, though. There has also been little evidence being at home, or being favored, makes a big difference in what is now a very pass-heavy game. Receivers are factored in throughout most games in most weeks. It’s just the way the NFL is played today.
5 stars – Ok, this week we have a legit test of the system. Usually, we see 3 stars all over the place, and we have some 4s and a 5 this week. Antonio Brown is not who I thought I’d see in the 5 star ranks this week, but who can argue him being a great play? The road dog tag is being tested, too. The theory is the sites underprice road dogs, but there is nothing underpriced about Antonio Brown any week. So, again, grain of salt. He is in a shockingly good spot against a team with a weaker secondary. The Peters crap is overblown. KC is a bend, but don’t break defense. They don’t ever scare me in terms of “shutdown” corners. They do hawk the ball, though, and increase the chances the opposing QB throws picks…….I’m looking at you, Ben. Antonio is matchup proof, and I don’t see a reason, other than affordability, to shy away from him at all.
4 stars – DeAndre Hopkins….duh. Heavy targets and paired with Deshaun Watson are your cash play. Don’t overthink it. Jarvis Landry draws the targets, too. He also draws the road dog tag leaving me to believe he is in line for serious garbage time work. However, the question becomes whether or not you trust Cutler to care whatsoever if Miami goes down big again. We get two Cutlers. The one that just pouts like the infant he is, and the one that just says the hell with it and throws the ball all over the yard into coverages a midget quarterback looking through linemen’s legs could see was a horrible decision. Keenan Allen remains sneaky, as usual, and is firmly in play nearly every week. And, Mike Evans should see the Patrick Peterson treatment, but you can’t argue his volume in that Bucs offense.
Tight Ends
Another volatile position, but one we can usually find on the cheap. What I want to point out is why we pay up for running back most times. We always have cheap TEs and WRs on board. So, when those are the volatile positions, why not keep our risk there where it might actually come through for us? Taking risk at RB, when we don’t need to, is folly. Lock in those points and make up for it with some of the volatile positions in great matchups. For TE, we are looking for home teams, favored teams, implied to score a lot of points. Why? This is when the TE is historically involved.
5 stars – Travis Kelce might be pricey, but he might also be the best tight end in football. Not perhaps as consistent as a Zach Ertz, but better overall until we see more TD ability come from Ertz. Everything but a soft DvP lines up in Kelce’s favor this week, and we need to watch how he comes off concussion protocol with his usage. I’d hate to pay $7200 for a decoy on most plays. Rob Gronkowski also draws 5 stars. I just don’t ever know which way Belichick plans to use receivers, and frankly, I could use the $800 in savings off Gronk for Kelce to upgrade other spots. I know I could use the nearly $3000 discount with our next play.
4 stars – Ryan Griffin is this week’s “play whoever plays Cleveland” play. It’s perhaps risky due to target share in that offense, but we generally see offenses take the path of least resistance when the opponent has a glaring weakness. Coby Fleener is so under the radar this week, he’s bordering on stealth status. I know I won’t be playing him anywhere. I’d rather just take my chances, save more, and roster Griffin. However, it’s sneaky spots like these that win gpps. My other concern with Fleener is his historical usage with Willie Snead on the field. It’s as if Fleener is stealthy to his own quarterback when Snead is healthy.
Defense/Special Teams
Historically, we want defenses to be heavily favored. Everyone thinks home field matters, but statistics show it’s more about gameflow and when that QB needs to start forcing the passing volume. Defenses can then pin their ears back and blitz at will while the QB runs around under duress and still has to find a receiver because they are playing catch up. Facing an offense with a low implied total also helps, but it’s more about Vegas here, historically speaking.
6 stars – There are a lot of playable defenses this week. This isn’t even a complete list. These, however, will be the most popular choices outside of another 6 star defense not on the main slate in the Denver Broncos. But, Houston is another 6 star performer checking every box from home, to favored big, to low opponent implied points, to turnover prone opposing offense. It doesn’t get any better. Baltimore finds itself in a very similar spot, and they are facing a very inexperienced quarterback, too, for $500 less on Fanduel. Atlanta needs to show me they are capable of taking the ball away to really catch my eye, but with Jay Cutler coming to town, the Falcons might be in line for free candy like it’s Halloween.
With this many 6 star defenses, I really don’t see the need to go anywhere less impressive. I will do like I always do and rotate a few of them around my lineups as salaries fit.
Kickers
Very simple position, and another one to avoid overthinking. Yes, Aaron brings up great points with kickers in his article, and I read it most weeks for sure. However, I can always find solid picks at varying price points to save salary here and pay up in other places where I can better predict the scoring.
Let’s rock this week and share our winners in Slack. Dis-MISSED!!