Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
Tonight
We start off the season with two great matchups tonight. In terms of the games tonight the Cavaliers vs Celtics game has a 212.5 total and the Cavaliers are favored by 4.0-points. In the Houston vs Golden State game, we have a total of right around 229-points and the Warriors are favored by right around 9.5-points. Let’s dive into the first slate of the night:
Free Squares
- Jaylen Brown SG/SF BOS ($3,700)
- Jaylen Brown and the Boston Celtics will take on the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight on the road. The Celtics are currently 4.0 underdogs and have an implied total sitting at right around 104-points. The Celtics had a lot of shakeups in their roster this season and Jaylen Brown will make his way into the starting lineup tonight. As a rookie, he had a .691 DKFP/M, a 17 usage, and a 10 PER. I think we will that DKFP/M rise a little bit and he will definitely see more minutes this season. The Celtics had a pace of around 98 and the Cavaliers had a pace at right around 99. If we take a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 20.04 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.42x value. We also have a minutes projection set at right around 29. I think this is a pretty fair baseline projection for Brown tonight as we really do not know how involved he is going to be in the offense this season with all the new additions. Brown makes a good play tonight in that he has a bottom barrel price and he has multi-position flexibility. I would like to see him get us right around 6-6.5x value tonight.
- Kyrie Irving PG BOS ($8,300)
- In one of the most highly anticipated returns of the season, Kyrie Irving will take the Boston Celtics to Cleveland to face his old team. With the Cavaliers, last season Kryie had the following numbers: 1.24 DKFP/M, 30 usage, and a 23 PER. I think we are going to see those numbers improve for Kyrie this year especially his DKFP/M. He will be much more involved in the passing game this season which is something we didn’t really see last year. I think he is going to be even more aggressive on the offensive end which will certainly boost his fantasy production this season. I do not think we will see him priced this low for too long. For his matchup tonight I expect him to be matched up against Derrick Rose who had a -2.36 DRPM last year. Rose is definitely a guy I think Kyrie will have no trouble exposing tonight. If we take a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a baseline projection of right around 43.53 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.25x value. We also have him projected for right around 35 minutes. I am a little bit more bullish on Kryie than the Domination Station and I think with all the factors tonight I think we can hope for right around 45-50 DKFP with 50+ DKFP upside.
- Draymond Green PF/C GSW ($7,000) **QUESTIONABLE**
- Draymond Green and the Golden State Warriors will take on the Houston Rockets tonight at home. The Warriors are currently 9.0-point favorites and they have an implied total sitting at right around 119-points. The Warriors played at a pace of right around 103 and the Rockets played at a pace of right around 102. If you have played NBA DFS for the last couple of years we all know what a valuable player Draymond can be by filling up the stat sheets in some many different categories. He had the following stats last season: 17 usage, 1.219 DKFP/M, 17 PER, 8.1 RPG, 6.9 AST, 1.4 BLK, 2.0 STL, and 10.6 PPG. As you can see he really does fill up the stat sheet in so many different categories. It looks like his matchup tonight will be Ryan Anderson who had a -0.12 DRPM last season which bodes well for Draymond offensively tonight. Taking a look at our Domination Station we have a baseline projection of right around 39.02 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.57x value. I think we would be satisfied with the production tonight and if he can get it going offensively he may get us up to 6x value. He has a good price, solid matchup, and multi-position eligibility tonight which makes Draymond a solid play tonight.
Free Square of the Night
NBA is back and there are a ton of huge tournaments across the industry tonight. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NBA so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Kyrie Irving tonight! Good luck Army!
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