Small DFS slates for NFL are so much fun. There are huge advantages to playing these in GPPs and you can really make a killing if a contrarian lineup hits. Beyond that, it just adds fun to the second half of your afternoon, so why not have a little skin in the game? This article isn’t so much about research or best plays, but more about playing against the field. Our goal is to put together a strategy that will run circles around those that are too chalky with the limited player pool. Let’s get to work.
In Week 2, I think the best way to attack the afternoon slates and gain an edge is to play the late slate that includes the Sunday and Monday night games. This will be the slate that I deconstruct.
QB
Normally, I would want to fade the highest owned game of the slate because more often than not when the chalk busts and you’re on other players in good spots you can have a fantastic ROI. However, in 2016, both meetings between the Falcons and the Packers resulted in 65 total points. The over/under has steadily increased all week and this is a position I am going to eat the chalk.
I prefer to roll with Aaron Rodgers, as I think he will throw the ball 45-50 times as the Packers are playing from behind. You’re welcome to roll with Matt Ryan as he is an excellent play, but I think he might actually be higher owned because his price tag is $900 cheaper than Aaron Rodgers.
RB
At running back we have several solid options but one running back has a fantastic job of returning excellent value at single digit ownership. That running back is Thomas Rawls. With the Seahawks having no semblance of a running game in Week 1, Rawls being healthy and putting in a full week of practice is a good sign for the offense. He should be given the first opportunity to take over this lead running back role with the team and if he starts off hot he could be off to a big day. The Seahawks are home favorites by a million points, which is highly correlated with running back success.
Ty Montgomery is a lock for me but I don’t mind you fading his ownership and taking a nice large field GPP tournament shot with Tevin Coleman. However, you’re best off just going all the way up to Ezekiel Elliot. Our models have him projected for 17.77 Fanduel points against the tough Denver Broncos defense. As Dez Bryant and the passing game is locked down, Elliot should be the focal point of the offense for the Cowboys.
WR
Julio Jones is clearly the best player on the slate and belongs in our lineup no matter who you choose between Rodgers and Ryan. If you are feeling frisky you can fade Julio Jones and play Tyler Gabriel ($4,900) or Muhammed Sanu ($5,300) as pivot plays against the Julio ownership.
Jordy Nelson will be highly owned, as will Randall Cobb, which means an excellent pivot off the Packers WR ownership will be Davante Adams. He is a great red zone threat and a perfect game stack target for large field GPPs. In smaller GPPs or the leagues that our staff encourages our members to play, you should be absolutely fine rolling with Nelson and Cobb.
If you want to fad some of this high ownership Doug Baldwin is your best bet, as he could feast on the 49ers secondary as the Seahawks have a high ITT and are -14.5 point favorites.
TE
This is where we can begin to get some lower owned plays to separate our lineups in the large field GPPs. As the masses jump on Jimmy Graham, Michael Bennett, and Austin Hooper, we can go with old faithful Jason Witten for a nice floor and decent upside if he can score a touchdown against the Broncos defense that is susceptible to the run and TEs in the middle of the field.
We can also look to the MNF game and roll out Eric Ebron against the Giants defense, who is built similarly to the Broncos (lockdown corners and a superb pass rush), which means Ebron could be the safety valve for Stafford.
K
The weather in Seattle is supposed to be quite windy, with 15 + MPH winds. A fair amount of people could roll Blair Walsh out with the high home total for Seattle so this could be a nice edge. If you need to save money here go with Greg Zuerlein at $4,600, but if not, go all the way up to Dan Bailey as a nice low owned GPP option. The Cowboys are good enough to move the ball against the Broncos but I can see them getting stopped in the red zone all day.
My favorite kicker for anything that isn’t a large field GPP is Matt Bryant. I think the Falcons will score at will today and he seems like an absolute lock for double-digit kicking points.
DEF
I’ll keep this one short and sweet. Seattle Seahawks defense is a lock. They are at home against a terrible offense, with poor weather, and should be playing with a lead all game.
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