After a weekend of bad mustaches and extreme tire wear, we zip back to 2017 for a short track Saturday night. For 14 drivers it is do or die, and for 16 drivers it is the last chance to gobble up those valuable playoff points. It has been a tremendous season and this weekend should be no different. The best way to keep up with all this is to get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research. Let’s start our research by taking a high-level look at Richmond:
Track Specifications:
Short Track: 0.75-mile oval, 60-foot width with 10-foot apron
Banking: turns: 14 degrees; front stretch 8 degrees; backstretch 2 degrees
Straights: Backstretch – 860 feet; Frontstretch – 1290 feet
Stages: 1 ends lap 100, 2 at lap 200, race finish is lap 400 (OT possible)
As a .75 mile D-shaped oval, Richmond is a very unique track without many true sister tracks. As we did in the spring, I want to start by taking a peak at average running position at Richmond.
So the first thing we should address is just how miserable the Ford’s continue to be. They have been able to finish decent, but there ability to dominate is nonexistence. For this reason, I am going to cross out Fords as potential dominators for now. For me that distinction is limited to JGR, Furniture Row and Kyle Larson. With that in mind, I think Denny Hamlin is a likely candidate to repeat this weekend.
Hamlin leads a series leading 18% of laps at Richmond, boasts a 7.7 average running position against a top 10 average finish. Couple that with his status as the hottest driver in the sport with the most impressive equipment – I think Hamlin is a dominator this weekend.
Not far behind, and probably your pole sitter, is Kyle Busch. Busch has a slightly higher average finishing position (7.7) but traditionally doesn’t lead as many laps. Across the board, Hamlin is historically more impressive then Kyle Busch at Richmond, but we all know about Hamlins propensity to beat himself. If Hamlin misses a step this weekend, look for Kyle Busch to step up. He has finished in the top five at 60% of the races he suited up for here, and finished inside the top 2 for 43% of those times.
The only other potential dominators are Kyle Larson and Matt Kenseth, who led 164 laps here in the spring. We will revisit this after practice, but I truly believe this is Denny’s race to lose.
Luckily for us, it is much easier to find some potential value plays. Of course – Ryan Newman is just leaping off the page. He is a real stud at all short tracks, and at Richmond in particular. His average running and finishing position both fall around 12th, which shows both his skill an ability to stay out of trouble. More importantly, he averages 30.6 quality passes per race – which means if he slips up in qualifying, it will be no problems.
Another name showing up alot in my research is Clint Bowyer – he carries a 12.9 average finish at Richmond, with 24.9 quality passes. I’m not high on Fords, but Bowyer won’t need to dominate to be relevant. Look for his stats in practice and go off of that.
I also like Aric Almirola this week, who carries top 20 speed on average, with a top 16 average finishing position. Aric Almirola has not been qualifying great recently, and if that continues, he could be a relevant play.
Kasey Kahne is another one with a solid track history. He has had consistent positive place differential at Richmond over the last few years, and has had top fives.
I will dig for some true value during the Sway Bar, after practice! See you then!
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