With only preseason games to work from it is tough to know exactly how teams will look. The entire industry went through a minefield last week but we floated above it. Good stuff! To recap, the sharps were on Chicago covering the +6.5 (or +6, depending on your book), the Jets to cover +8, TEN (started as a pick and driven up to -3), SF to cover at home, and PHI on the road. They got the Chicago cover and the Eagles right. Expect that they are gonna be more on ball as they gather more information.
Sharps are not right all the time, but they are right most of the time. We should generally try to follow them. This week we have a host of spots where the public and the sharps differ, so let’s dive in.
ARI @ IND
For a few years now, the Rams have been underwhelming, to say the least. Thanks, Jeff Fisher. So when the Rams beat you, you must really suck. That’s what the public sees, anyway. They look at a team who had to decide that a former 3rd string QB was better than the guy who had been in town all camp. They look at the ghost of what Arizona was and probably think they figure it out. While the sharps like Arizona to win, they do like the Colts to cover the 7 point spread.
This spread was ARI -7.5 when the sun came up on Friday and about 90% of the public money was on Arizona. Just before 1030AM, the line dropped to Arizona -7. You will have to take a stand on the over/under of 44, however, as there has been no movement there. This tells us that the sharps either believe, somewhat, in what Jacoby Brissett and the Colts offense can do; or, more likely, that the Cardinals will have some growing pains with the game in the hands of an aging Carson Palmer.
DFS Takeaway: I am not sure anyone is looking towards the Colts in this matchup, but we should temper our expectations for what the Cardinals offense might do.
TEN @ JAX
3 days ago, the total for this game was at 43.5. Right now, it stands at 42. The Titans did not show out last week in what could have been a high-scoring affair. Jacksonville, on the other hand, did show up to play. Well, that got the attention of the sharps because, while public money has been coming in on Tennessee, the sharps have been eating up the lack of action on JAX +2 and drove it to JAX +1.
The public will look at last week’s affair in Houston as Leonard Fournette being awesome and Houston being hurt and out of sync. They will not buy in on Jacksonville with a QB who throws picks. They will also believe that the Oakland defense is starting to turn a corner and just stifled Tennessee. Maybe it’s a bounce-back spot for the Titans, maybe it isn’t, but that’s the shiny thing to distract you from the value.
DFS Takeaway: The coaches need to shield Bortles from himself, but there is some value in the Jacksonville offense. That was a real performance for the Jaguars defensive unit. They are playable, as well.
PHI @ KC
This line opened at KC -4.5. The sharps let the public do their thing. KC put themselves in a new light on that Thursday night. Alex Smith came out of his game manager shoes and became a quarterback. Do not be fooled because we have not seen him do this consistently and the Eagles defense is good and they can get to the quarterback.
The public bet and bet and pushed the line up to KC -5.5. Enter the sharps. The line is down to KC -5, despite a bunch of money riding on KC. The total for this game also dropped from 48 to 46.5 and then up to 47 amidst 80% of public money on the over.
DFS Takeaway: This game looks like it is slated to go under. You have 2 solid defensive teams. Outside of a one-off, we can look elsewhere for some fun.
NYJ @ OAK
The betting public loves “da Raidersss” and they hate the Jets. The line opened at -14 and the public said we don’t care how high the line is. The sharps are on the other side, for whatever it’s worth. They drove it down to -13.5. It could be a sign that we need to check our expectations for Oakland.
DFS Takeaways: Look, you’re still getting a piece of this game if you were going to do so before reading this. Maybe don’t mega-stack this game, though.
GB @ ATL
Fireworks seem to happen when these two teams get together. Neither one of them can really stop the other so it sets up well for DFS purposes. The public loves Green Bay. They have a bigger fanbase as far as the public is concerned and some see Rodgers as the best QB in the league, overall. The Falcons are rather new to the scene but the sharps have taken notice. It could be a combo of the past history between the two teams. It could be that the Pack is not a good road team. Whatever the reason, sharps are hitching their wagons to the Falcons at home.
The line started at ATL -2 and moved to -3 as the week went on. All this, even though there was roughly 75% of public money on the Packers. This is the prototypical move that lets us know something is amiss (see below).
DFS Takeaways: We are looking at a close game, on paper, with a high total. In fact, the total, which began at 53.5, now stands at 56.5. There will be plenty of Fantasy goodness on both sides but I think we may want a bit more from the Atlanta side of the ball. Forget the defenses, let’s turn this into Arena ball… without the rules for the Jack linebackers, of course.
Now let’s go crush week 2!