Two miles of trouble in this Irish Hills! Michigan is a fast – again! Accusations of sandbagging and the resurgence of the other manufacturers makes this weekend very interesting, so let’s see if we can make heads or tails of it. To start, make sure you check you my primer article “The Competition Caution” . As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
Top Plays
Brad K. – It’s nice to talk about a Ford car, because it has been all Toyota recently. However, it has been CONFIRMED that Toyota has brought a different engine package and it lacks the dominance they have had in the past, at least in short run speed. This all works out to benefit Bad Brad, who starts P1. The Penske cars have showed really great short run speed, and Brad should jump out to be a big league off the start and dominate the first chunk of the race.
Martin Truex Jr. – Alas, we have to talk about him. Here is the thing – Toyota Racing is too smart to bring a bum package to the track. I believe that this engine package trades in single lap speed in exchange for fuel mileage and long run speed. If this theory proves true, Truex should bull his way towards the front as the race progresses. Michigan is a track that usually promotes long runs, so it all makes sense in theory. And remember, we are talking about a manufacturer that is “lacking speed”, but still turned out a P2 speed in final practice. Starting 13th gives us a little leeway even if MTJ doesn’t dominate. He is in a perfect spot for us this week, and he will be hard to ignore.
Jimmie Johnson – Johnson is starting in the back after wrecking his primary car after qualifying, so his official start will be 22nd. For us, this only serves to push down his ownership. Johnson will easily work his way back to the top 20, and keep pushing forward from there. The entire Hendrick camp brought serviceable speed and though Johnson doesn’t have dominator potential, he should compete for a top 10 and crush 6x value.
Kyle Larson – Larson has won the last three two mile races, and the last two races at Michigan. He has shown top 2 speed during practice this weekend, and always performs on these long throttle intensive tracks. He starts 9th, which is somewhat reassuring. I think Larson will be in the top five all afternoon and compete for a win. I am worried about his ability to dominate, so i wouldn’t go over board with him, but he is one of my favorites to win.
Confusing Plays
Kyle Busch – Busch put himself in a weird spot this week. He is starting in the deadzone (6th) and has shown about 5th place speed. The problem is – it’s hard to say how this Toyota package is going to race. If the Toyotas are going to come to life during the race, it is going to Busch to the lead first, and Truex up there shortly after. I am playing Busch, but not at the rate I have been recently.
Value Plays
Ty Dillon – This seems like a layup. Dillon was horrible in Q trim but really turned it up in race trim. In final practice he was 24th quick, and his ability as a survivalist should bump him up to a top 20 contender. He finish P20 here a couple weeks ago, and should repeat that this weekend.
Ryan Newman – Back at it again with the Ryan Newman. I should really go back and see how many times Newman has ended up in my value picks. He rolls of 25th, with top 20 speed, all agaisnt a 15th place finish a few weeks ago. I am playing Newman with confidence this week.
Daniel Suarez – Suarez has been screaming hot these last few weeks, and is teetering on the edge of not being value anymore. This week he starts 16th, against a top 10 final practice speed. The Toyota conundrum shouldn’t effect Daniel this week, since we don’t need him to dominate. We just need him top compete for a top 8, which should be a walk in the park for a guy who once beat Kyle Busch here.
AJ Allmendinger – At this price point, no one has been as competitive on two milers than AJ. Problem is, he has been straight garbage all week in practice. Regardless, he should remain competitive and on the lead lap. That should be all it really takes, as he rolls of 29th, and finished 18th here just a few weeks ago.
I am also in currently trying to talk myself out of playing Dale Jr, but I will leave it at that.
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