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The Sway Bar: NASCAR DFS Fades and Values for Watkins Glen

Since qualifying is just 3 hours before racetime, I will be live blogging during qualifying. After qualifying is done, this will serve as the official Sway Bar article. More than ever, make sure you get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all day updating my research.

 

Top Plays

Kevin Harvick – Hurray for new top plays! Thanks to his 20th place qualifying effort, Harvick has made his way back into fantasy relevance. Harvick is a serviceable road racer but more importantly – he almost always finishes. I think his car is a lot faster in race trim, and he should benefit from stage racing. This is a really solid play.

Kurt Busch – Everything I just said about Harv also applies to Kurt Busch, except Kurt starts 18th. Over the last 4 seasons, Kurt has been a top 5 contender at Watkins Glen, and was SUPER quick in race trim. Look for Kurt to bull his way to the front before the end of the first stage.

Kyle Busch – I honestly think Kyle Busch can win every single race left in the regular season. He is just so much faster than the field right now. This weekend he found the pole with a speed that eclipsed the field by nearly half a second. The only thing that can hold him back is strategy.

Confusing Plays

Clint Bowyer – Outside of the front row, I think Bowyer has the fastest car in race trim. He rolls of 12th, so we are counting on a top 5. I think that is likely though – Bowyer is a dynamite road racer and finally has the cars to prove it. Don’t over do it though, he is priced way up this week. BOWYER IS HAVING SOME BRAKE ISSUES – MONITOR AS WE APPROACH RACE TIME

Value Plays

Trevor Bayne – Bayne blew his first qualifying lap and wasn’t really able to recover. He rolls off 3oth, but has a much better car than that. If he can stay out of trouble I have him pegged as a top 20 lock and a top 15 contender. Place differential will be uber important this week, so I think Bayne is very relevant.

Dale Jr. – Jr has had nothing positive to say about his car this week, but I refuse to believe its a 28th place car – which is where he will start. Over the last couple years JR has morphed into a really impressive driver at the Glen, and if they can dial that car in, that trend should countinue. Thats a big if though.

Aric Almirola – Aric has had some rough luck since his return to cup competition, and that buck has to drop eventually. Starting 29th will give Almirola a chance to slowly and methodically work his way towards the front, which he is very good at. His driver rating is quite high for the drivers priced around him, and he always races fast than he qualifies. Play Almirola with confidence this weekend.

Boris Said – Look back at my comments from Sonoma

Boris starts 35th with 35th place equipment and top five talent and experience. He has run more races here than probably anyone in the field, it’s just a matter of whether his equipment can keep up. I have Boris pegged for around a 25th place finish, which is good enough for his $5700. Play with caution, but he’s the best option at this price range.

All of that reigns true this weekend. I like Boris, I just hope the equipment can hold up.

So there it is folks. Keep an eye on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.